Blue Grass

[Michael D.]

Zanjero - interesting long shot (tho odds won\'t be too long with Gomez staying). \'5.5\' top last year, nice move forward last. perfect timing. one hole. ready for a move into zero range?

Dominican - i liked him a lot last. nice top as a 2 yr old, matched it last with a bit of trouble around the turn. great jock. nice post. probably my pick again at long odds.

Street Sense - just a very fast horse. got beat by GH last year over the poly, but ran faster. ready for his best tho? does he deserve to be a huge favorite over poly? most likely winner, low odds the issue.

Time Squared - should get much better with time. needs time. might have him on a few tickets underneath tho.

Teuf - not for me.

Great Hunter - no knocks. nice \'2.5\' top last year in the BC. first \'07 figure wasn\'t too impressive, but you know this race and the next have been the target. ground loss? only seven horses, but even two or three wide might prove costly here.

thoughts? if the odds on Street Sense get too low, i might take a shot with Dominican.

[marcus]

imo - Zanjero at 8-1 doesn\'t look too bad and Dominican either at 20-1 +up  , wonder what odds they\'ll be in the exacta pool .  I\'d toss Street Sense and Great Hunter from the tri altogether no problem - except I can\'t figure who else for third ...

[marcus]

Couldn\'t go through with it - was just doing my keeneland online/contest pics for saturday and had to go with  Street Sense ...

[Michael D.]

marcus Wrote:
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> Couldn\'t go through with it - was just doing my
> keeneland online/contest pics for saturday and had
> to go with  Street Sense ...


can\'t blame you marcus. if this were on dirt, i would just watch it. he could even bury them on poly, but i\'ve seen strange things happen over those recycled fibers.

great Kee card tomorrow.

[marcus]

Michael D. - It\'s  a was tricky call + w/ SS , imo - another off effort , a pair or new top  could do it  Blus Grass and at the same time - sets the horse up nicely for a serious run at the triple crown .  That surface is a big X factor and surprises are definately not out of the question saturday , but the BG day card looks chalky to me  for the most part ...

[NoCarolinaTony]

There is only one way to play this race...IF YOU PLAY THE RACE AT ALL.

Dominican may present the only value in the race. Last race was very good, seems to love Poly. There are 3 filler horses in the race. The Kee Rail seems dead, so that compromises Zanjero (the only other horse with an outside chance).

Street Sense or Great Hunter will be way too short.

The wetter the track gets, the faster they will run....and speed holds better. (My Opinion of course)

Bet the Pick 4 instead (NTRA)

NC Tony

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Fully mindful his best Tfig is in the 5 range, for my money Teuflesberg with the \"Can\'t get out of her own way trainer\" is the horse to make it pay. He can\'t win, but he could get second if one of the top two stubs his toe and figures to be right there for third.

This is a race you probably need to call a straight tri upon.



Michael D. Wrote:
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> Zanjero - interesting long shot (tho odds won\'t be
> too long with Gomez staying). \'5.5\' top last year,
> nice move forward last. perfect timing. one hole.
> ready for a move into zero range?
>
> Dominican - i liked him a lot last. nice top as a
> 3 yr old, matched it last with a bit of trouble
> around the turn. great jock. nice post. probably
> my pick again at long odds.
>
> Street Sense - just a very fast horse. got beat by
> GH last year over the poly, but ran faster. ready
> for his best tho? does he deserve to be a huge
> favorite over poly? most likely winner, low odds
> the issue.
>
> Time Squared - should get much better with time.
> needs time. might have him on a few tickets
> underneath tho.
>
> Teuf - not for me.
>
> Great Hunter - no knocks. nice \'2.5\' top last year
> in the BC. first \'07 figure wasn\'t too impressive,
> but you know this race and the next have been the
> target. ground loss? only seven horses, but even
> two or three wide might prove costly here.
>
> thoughts? if the odds on Street Sense get too low,
> i might take a shot with Dominican.

[fkach]

Michael, Congrats on your selction of Dominican.

If I prepped one of my horses in that race, I would be a bit upset right now. They walked for about 6F and then ran for about 3F. There wasn\'t much speed in the race, but a lot of that pace had to do with everyone choking back because of the tendency of Poly to be so rough on speed.

How anyone can think a race like that can be a good prep for the Derby is beyond me.

IMO, there isn\'t a single trainer from that race that has any idea where his horse really is right now as far as running 10F on dirt goes and how much he did or did not get out of that Poly boat race!
 
It\'s going to take some good horsemanship to figure out how to prepare a horse  to deal with what will certainly be a tougher dirt pace in the Derby when you have no idea where he is coming out of what was essentially a 5F-6F gallop and 3F-4F hard work.

[Michael D.]

thanks fk. I agree with your points. this race has little to do with the Ky Derby ...

Jerry,

how the hell are you going to put a figure on this race? probably going to have to adjust it for pace?

[Silver Charm]

I don\'t see how he can.

Probably will give the race a BOX.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The last race on the card had very interesting fractions also.

Personally I think the track went to powder.

To my eye there were three horses that really impressed. One took from the race precisely what he wanted. The other two ran deceptively well.

I\'d love to see those two in the Derby. It wasn\'t nearly as slow as some think.

Silver Charm Wrote:
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> I don\'t see how he can.
>
> Probably will give the race a BOX.

[fkach]

\"The last race on the card had very interesting fractions also.\"
\"It wasn\'t nearly as slow as some think.\"


I wouldn\'t be so sure it was the track.  I think it may have been that the jocks were making a major riding adjustment to the track.

[Michael D.]

all the races except for one (and another was an about distance) were slow early, very fast late. the early/late distortion on this card is as extreme as it gets. we are looking at sub :12 final 1/8ths and approx :06 final 1/16ths all day long, after :24, :25, and :26 opening quarters (:23.5 for a grade 2 sprint).

how bad was the wind? were all the jocks instructed to hold up their mounts because closers win on poly?

horses were exploding home over that surface, could it have been that slow?

if it was wind, were the 9f races (including the Blue Grass) even SLOWER than we think?

those were quality colts running in the big one .....................

[Caradoc]

I very much doubt a box will be necessary.  Give or take, the winner pairs his top, SS continues his decline from the huge 2yo effort, Zanjero goes back a couple of points or so, and Teuflesberg pairs the figure he has now run 4x in a row.

By the way, there\'s all this talk here about what by any measure is a slow race.  Were any of you guys watching the Arkansas Derby?

[miff]

It\'s typical poly-insanity,put a line thru the race.Looked like a workout with a last half sprint.The whole field was unimpressive and as Mike D pointed out the last race runners outran the BG field the last eighth 11.37 to 11.51.


Mike