BC Picks

[shanahan]

cash included
great hunter
dancing edie
henny hughes
silent name
fleet indian
hurricane run
bernadini

yes, 2 favs, maybe 3...but playing over/under my next 4 selections for a simple day of not \"overthinking\".  by the way, at what point does a euro horse become an american horse - 4 starts? 5? 1?

[marcus]

NCT - Blame it on the  \'Kelly\'s ... - post 14 definately s#cks . The other one you didn\'t like got the rail and Thor is a bounce saturday no matter which gate he breaks from  .

After you had mentioned Kelly\'s Landing the other day , I went to his sheet and thought - hmm , what if ... and with an inside draw Nct is right , this horse does has a big shot to win + Love\'s the course .  

Tough call to test Murphy\'s Law on BC Day and not to throw him in there on a p-3/ p-4 play\'s as an insurence policy ...  

[HP]

Usually I change my mind 50 times...  I read all these posts and...

Juvenile fillies

This is a good race so I\'m going to be dealing with it right up until the bell...  I\'m leaning towards tossing Dreaming of Anna (too short and not really better than A LOT of these).  On top I still like Octave and Her Majesty.  She\'s Included and Gatorize are probably strictly \"unders.\"  I am taking a MUCH more positive view of Sutra, especially given how the race will be run (should be a square pace).  Cotton Blossom has a shot but also looks too short...  

Juvenile

Street Sense will be running late and drew well...

F&M Turf

A few people seemed to think Film Maker will be value.  IMHO, he will be shorter than others that are probably just as good...

Sprint

Price on Too Much Bling?  Is Bordanaro \"west coast\" speed?  A lot of folks seem to like Siren Lure, which I don\'t see at all.  

Mile

Price on Silent Name?  

Distaff

After looking at the likely pace scenario here, I downgrade Round Pond, Healthy Addiction and Pool Card...  Spun Sugar and Pine Island look better to me.  Happy Ticket likes CD, awful draw.  So it\'s getting cheaper as I\'m more focused...

So no major changes...which is unusual for me.  Good reading on this thread...  Thanks to all.  

HP  

[marcus]

HP - The fillie picture isn\'t any clearer now than it was going into the Oaks . Sutra\'s quasi 0 X O  pattern ( on a relative newtonian scale ) easily could be a subtle hint - a big one is coming ...

Also I like  Sutra w/ Her Majesty + Quick Little Miss to possibly be my only ex / tri box 3x for the day but might use Cash Included  instead of HM  , and I\'m looking at the Mile as well for possible exotics plays with Super Frolic ,  if I can leave out favorites  but that Araafa probably can take\'s some beating on  saturday and is difficult to ignore based on his pattern .

I\'m luke warm on Octave and the price - though there\'s another kind of healthy pattern that you know is likely to go forward - but it\'s not a clear read at all for me with that one   . last nite oddscheckercom had Sutra at around 12-1 and shortening , today at around 9 -1 aprx ...
I was hoping to get in the 20-1 to 30-1 range for Sutra ...    

[flushedstraight]

Juv. Fillies - Appealing Zophie, Her Majesty

Juv Colts - Scat Daddy, Pegasus Wind

F&M Turf - Film Maker, Wait a While

Sprint - Bling, Henny, Thor\'s Echo, Malibu Mint

Mile - Free Thinking, Araafa

Distaff - Pine Island, Spun Sugar

Turf - Cacique, TH Approval

Classic - Invasor, David Junior

[Michael D.]

give it up Alan.

now.

[TGAB]

The first time through a card I\'m looking with the intent of quickly identifying fast and slow horses, a getting acquainted process, before hunkering down to specifics--what figure or range of figures is needed to win, how do the conditions, weight and post, figure into the mix, current form, patterns, etc.

But on the initial scan, I\'m also looking for patterns to jump out at me. Most of the handicappers on this board are experienced sheet readers, but I haven\'t seen or read any comments about what I\'ll term \"click\" horses, that is, horses with patterns that just jump out. Something just clicks when you look at the line. Now this can\'t be forced. The pattern either jumps out or it doesn\'t. It\'s a subconscious reaction and something we can\'t necessarily explain, not initially anyway. It\'s a function of looking at lots and lots sheets. Over the course of years of ROTWs, JB pattern discussions, and board contributers\' pattern discussions as well, we\'ve picked up a lot of information which gets processed and refined and even if we\'re not aware, we intuitively look at  patterns and adjudge quickly, at times.


Now these jump ups don\'t always run--I can have a bad read. And they won\'t necessarily win, especially if the talent level is too low and the conditions are not propitious. And frankly a lot of times in the past after a more extended analysis, I\'ve ended talking myself out of a play--not this time though.


The one horse that clicked when I first saw it was----Quick Little Miss.

Toss the first 2 races--look at the last three--bang, bang, bang. I went back to look at her last, the Oak Leaf BC, and while she got beat handily, she ran well. The jump ups are bite-size in quick succession and now she has 5 weeks into this. Dynamic is a word I use occasionally in the ROTW and this pattern, the last three races, epitomizes this. We put figures to paper, two dimensionally reckoning a horse\'s form, but obviously, these are mortal beings and form is fluid, something which at times the two dimensional verisimilitude can\'t accurately represent.

Halleluah--I put my hand over those last three and I can feel an invisible current pulsing health and vigor. Again this feel, this intuitive read, can\'t be forced. It\'s not Like Scorpion say, who could run, but looking at the line and other info, I\'m still not sure he will run.

Now as I said earlier JB and I disagree which is not to say he doesn\'t think it can\'t run--he does but it comes down to percentages and as he says in the seminar, QLM has developed a lot already and each successive new top decreases the likelihood of another. He thinks a bounce is much more likely. Moreover there are lots of others as fast or faster.        
       
Anyway QLM is my key. JB is playing the race differently and he certainly could be right.
   

[Michael D.]

QLM hits my ticket. i can picture a nice late run.

have to appreciate that the forward pattern follows the stretch out in distance. freud over an unbridled mare perfect.

post 13 worries ... i see four closers inside of post 13. court might not get the chance to tuck in.

btw, the fav, cash included, should get the dream trip here. 1 is speed, and 2 is a closer. cory should get CI to the rail without a problem.


thanks Alan.

[flushedstraight]

I assume it\'s the bounce potential that turns people off of Scat Daddy, but this would make more sense to me if he was going to be odds on, and you\'re just looking for a decent excuse to toss him. I would expect 7-2 or better and there are just too many positives on this guy not to use him.

Last year First Samurai ran a 1 in August setting a 9.5 pt top and paired it up 3 weeks later; then paired ones again 3 weeks apart in October. Freak, maybe, but I\'ll take the chance that, like the rest of the breed, 2yr olds are generally getting faster and that the Champagne race is at his level now. Even if I give him a 50% chance to run like absolute crap, no pun intended, I\'ll take the odds... notwithstanding the Beyer jinx.

[Silver Charm]

Mo tend to agree a little. Need some value however.

I may be the only who saw this, or maybe not, but in his three previous races he was always inside. The Champagne he raced OUTSIDE and finished full of run.

If Gomez can save ground early, steer outside turning for home he may be a Point Given who gets there.

But he needs to be 5-1 or more.

[tucker]

Alan, I like the pick, however, you also get the \"Beyer Curse.\"

http://www.drf.com/news/article/80166.html

Good luck to all.

[P-Dub]

Race 1 - Annika Lass, Trippi Street, Hot Storm

Race 2 - Wiggins, Its No Joke, Latent Heat

Race 3 - Cotton Blossom, Dreaming Of Anna, Her Majesty

Race 4 - Street Sense, Circular Quay, King Of The Roxy

Race 5 - Satwa Queen, Wait A While, My Typhoon

Race 6 - Too Much Bling, War Front, Henny Hughes

Race 7 - Araafa, Badge Of Silver, Free Thinking

Race 8 - Pine Island, Spun Sugar, Happy Ticket

Race 9 - Scorpion, Cacique, Go Deputy

Race 10 - David Junior, Bernardini, (Premium Tap, Lawyer Ron, Suave, Sun King)

Good Luck....

[Bally Ache]

Very Subtle   Morner   Maggie Slew   True and True

Ack Ack   Greeley\'s Galaxy  Awesome Twist   Straight Line

Juv Fillies  Dreaming of Anna  Her Majesty  Cash Included

Juv Colts    Circular Quay  Scat Daddy Pegasus Wind

Sprint      Henny Hughes  Kelly\'s Landing  Bordonaro

Mile       Aussie Rules   Aragorn

Filly & Mare   Fleet Indian    Asa Siempre

Classic      Bernardini    Invasor     Suave  

[RICH]

i am the king, thanks tg

Thank you
thank you
happy wife
happy life

[davidrex]

ODE TO T.G.

I won\'t redboard;so just let me throw praises to a couple of gents that made my Cup Day a most rewarding day in both handicapping and wagering.
I\'ve been very fortunate the last two months,and much credit must now be afforded to THORO-GRAPH and a gentleman I\'ve never met; David Sklansky.
Mr. Sklansky writes books on chess and poker.
Mr. Brown writes poetry with numbers.
Buy the graph and read the books:you will be empowered with both wisdom and how to execute the numbers in a way that will keep you in the black.
Unfortuneatly I\'m still very superstitious and may never do another ROTW after my good fortune a couple weeks ago. .....is there a book I can read on superstitions?