BC Sprint-This race is full of Bling

[Silver Charm]

Looking at the TG numbers on this one there are several real fast horses who will be lining up to leave the gate running.

Henny Hughes is without a doubt a real good one but anybody who goes to the window and plucks down big money on him at say 7-5 may find themselves for the next couple a races lost in a fog wondering how they could be so stupid. At the time it may have seemed like the groovy thing to do but in the long run could turn out to be real housebuster if not a walletbuster.  

Three year olds have not exactly been dead cinches in this race even though there was one last year and a filly several years back. However at the kind of odds they were offering no one should have been ashamed if they pulled out a twenty or so and \"took a shot\".

[jbelfior]

Anyone remember how slowwww they were coming home on Wood Memorial day??


Relatively speaking, they did not come home slow in the Bay Shore (which if I remember correctly was several lenghths faster than the olders in the Carter). And we\'re talking a 3yo in early April at the time.



Good Luck,
Joe B.  

[flushedstraight]

with Commentator out, there are 7 left that have run neg 3 or faster;

Bordonaro ran all his big #s off > 2 months rest, now he\'s gotta do it off 4 weeks... underlay?

Thor\'s Echo has the MOTO 5pt top to deal with off same 4 weeks but is relatively Doug-E-Fresh for this, historically a + sprint angle... overlay overlay overlay?

Pomeroy is Spa specialist until proven otherwise

Dubai Escapade did it twice, but at 7 panels and on open leads, faces new scenario as underlay

Too Much Bling looks as imposing as his buckeye brethren on the gridiron, I\'m looking for knocks like Gomez was looking for room in last year\'s running

Malibu Mint is currently a whopping 50-1 (in win futures at pinnacle, for whatever that\'s worth); ran identical top as Bling at Calder and is the one pure closer in this group with an (inevitable?) fast pace... polyqueen looks like one Honest Lady

Henny Hughes figs don\'t exactly overwhelm relative to the short price but maybe they\'ll actually let him stretch his legs now; he can still top a decent ticket that sets you up for the 2nd half of the day.

A bit of meaningless trivia...the only winning fave at last BC at CD was the sprint

[NoCarolinaTony]

How can you forget the horse that owns the track record,and is ML 30-1

Kelly\'s Landing may be the perfect horse for the course with the right running style for this race.

Who says it\'s going to take a -3? a -2 could win this easily.

NC Tony

[flushedstraight]

Given the two 3yr olds, the two Cals and the two gals, I have no choice but to expect the winner to run at least a neg 3 in order to formulate any realistic stategy to attack the race. I feel I would be blindly hoping for Offs and Xs or wide/troubled trips on all of these. Still gotta factor in the draw and prices, but I\'m probably looking at the win pool as saver only and keying one or more of the values from the above group in exotics.

Considering Kelly\'s Landing, the X-X-X pattern is discouraging, but on closer look three back was that Calder dead rail and last was poly. Given the mentioned horse (and jock) for course/pace and most importantly the huge price, could be opportunity lost keeping him off all tickets... agree he should not be forgotten.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Flushed,

Up till this point, the best BC Sprint Fig belongs to Kela who got a -3.3 running wide in a losing effort, the winner Speightstown received a -2.3 which is the best winning fig to date. Avg winning Fig for sprint is between -1.5 &    -2.0. Is it conceivable the winner might run a -3, but for all the contentiousness that will take place in this race, if they all decide to all go at it during the race, some of those who have not been tested will wilt, others will show true championship form.

Right now I\'m leading towards, Kelly\'s Landing, Pomeroy (forget this SPA stuff).

Areyoutalkingtome (too slow),

Attilla\'s Storm (Front End Wins only) too slow for these

Bordonaro (catch him if you can), fast enough will be feeling Heat early and often. Will grind down anyone who dares. Doubt he is lone speed, but may be speed of the speed.

Dubai Escapade - Front End Type too, has never competed vs males(no issue for me), however, will be feeling heat on front end too

Friendly Island will be runnning with the hot ealy pace seems a bit slow for this group.

Henny Hughes Been off a bit slow, grinds up and wears them down with power, Never been headed at the 4F mark going 6. Will be eye ball to eye ball in this one. Has the speed. beat fields of 4 and 9 and 5 this year. Today will be tested. last year lost twice when tested. Will be in the money and horse to beat(obviously).

Kelly\'s Landing- 4 for 5 in the money on the  CD surface and Holds track record. Working very good, has a -2 twice at CD, and a running style from just off the early front runners to get the jump similar to Silver Train. Inner and outer, ran a nice one on Poly in last, @30-1 worth a long look.

Malibu Mint Filly & Mare G1 winner, got her arse kicked by Dubai Escapade the second time around. Handled by the same man who trains Caller One. Wone last two Poly efforts, all vs Fillies. The one positive is the off the pace running style. The Big win in the Princess Rooney came when the rail was dead.
I wouldn\'t bet this one with your money.

Nightmare Affair - Yeah I\'ve had a few of those in my day, Anyway, Anopther mid to rear of the pack closer who\'s been racing mostly in the South Florida Circuit, seems a little slow, Could land a Piece of the Superfecta.

Pomeroy - doesn\'t need the front end to win. A Grinder. has Number Power to win this, May get the best and first jump on mid to rear pack closers and has stamina to pull of the victory. Trainer see fit to ship.

Siren Lure - Rear of the Pack Closer. Has run consecutive back to back lifetime tops in a well spaced campaign as a 5 yo. Those figs are still -1.5/-2.- points away from the best runners in this filed. Running style may benefit this runner. Not sure he has the number power to win this, but he may have the heart. PP will be critical for this one. In the money at best.

Thor\'s Echo [ From the Barn of Drug O\'Neill. Coming of a liftime top of 5 points. Bounce & Pass.

Too Much Bling - Perfectly named Baffert horse. Has the number power to win. Lightly raced, Front Runner or just off the leaders. PP will be important. has not yet won a G1 race either coming off a 15 week layoff. Bounced off it\'s last big effort, but did get the rest. Factor in who wins the race, but it won\'t be this runner.

War Front - Game as they come. been running consistent -2\'s. 10 of 12 in the $.Runs near the pace. Jerkens is sending this one to the BC. He\'s still sitting on the BC duck as I recall. Figures well in this race, PP will be critical to his success.

So in Summary- I see a Exacta/Tri/Super Box with Kelly\'s Landing, Pomeroy, War Front and HH, hoping that Henny runs out. I can see Bordonaro, Simon Lure and Nightmare Affair get into the Super.I am sure you can make a case for many of these. Thats how I see\'s it today. The ODDS will determine how I bet that day.

NC Tony

[flushedstraight]

NCT,

similar strategy, different horses, except for Henny (\"When I read about the evils of drinking, I gave up reading\"... badumpump)

2 comments;

isn\'t there a price where Thor\'s Echo becomes playable, especially considering the 5pt top was the only dirt start since March, which is a period of possible development for the 4yr old, and a reaction could still land him a money spot, plus the medication X factor?

the Malibu Mint neg 3 was earned winning a 1/2 million dollar Grade 1; what basis is there to reject the figure? I pay a premium for TG figs because I believe el diablo is validating these types of big neg numbers repeatedly with vastly superior skills and judgement than I have. Even if I couldn\'t help but doubt the figure, I would still use her at the projected huge price with the possibility that the fig is accurate and I\'m not.

[jbelfior]

NC Tony:


Terrific Sprint analysis. I agree that the POMEROY Spa hang-up may have a lot of people tearing tickets.

I\'m thinking that FRIENDLY ISLAND, off of the turf mile, 7f FOREGO, and slower works, may be coming from mid-pack in this one. If so, he\'s got enough back numbers to possibly land in the tri at 30-1.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Flushed,

For one thing, the Thoro pattern has MM Top 5% Pair 19% Off 34% and X41%. You are getting that too in your TG product. And it\'s only 1 number where as the competition has more than that one BIG FIG. This is the horses 6th race in 13-14 weeks, and its biggest test off of 20 day rest.

On the positive side you could say the horse just paired up again so a forward move is possible. Aside from the one number, the rest of the body of work is too slow for this field.

Again just my opinion, and this is certainly a very fine Filly. The Trainer is not one to give cause for optimism.

NC Tony

[NoCarolinaTony]

JB,

Just got work that Dubai Escapade is out of the Sprint!!

NC Tony

[flushedstraight]

Interesting... I\'m reading her thoro pattern as positive with the pair 19% and that the paired neg halves on the poly ARE big figs relative to that surface.

I\'m also taking a leap of faith that the negative aspect of the frequent starts/short rest is minimized because it was poly.

On a side note, five yrs ago Xtra Heat had the same # of taxing efforts over same time period leading up to her nice dead rail placing (and outgaming Chapman\'s colt, who I had that day).

[jbelfior]

That\'s interesting. Clocker report (on DRF) was not encouraging on her work the other day.

Same for my longshot 2-hole exacta play, FRIENDLY ISLAND. But he has never been a good work horse and I still think that Pletcher knows his only shot at a piece here is off of the main speed.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[marcus]

Absolutely nice sprint breakdown NCT and everyone -  Pomeroy and HH seem to be on alot of tickets. A few off top effort\'s and/or those heavily raced figure to react the most to having run very recent big effort\'s .

 Kelly\'s - why not , a favorable draw +good overall senario and the horse could run back to his number - sometimes it\'s just that easy .

It\'s difficult to imagine Bordonaro won\'t react to the kind of recent numbers he\'s run this season  + borderline deteriorating pattern call on him and even though the last two numbers are \"pairs \" on TP , he has not been able to get back ( except for within 1 pt )  to the big one he ran 3 races ago and probably never does is my quess ...    

[alydar61]

I know rags boys hate Malibu Mint claiming she\'s too slow. I like her, but the big neg is that she is coming back too soon. Running style is perfect for this. Don\'t you have to consider at these odds if you use TG? A lot of races this year too. Another negative. At 50-1, I love her!

[Silver Charm]

Alydar,

She certainly has the right style. It will be rough, tough, fast and physical on the front end. Bordonaro is a Kona Gold type brut and if you look at his opening quarter fractions there not to many who can outrun him.

So if you can\'t beat him to the punch, then you have to slug it out with him.

Might be wise to look at the fresh late challenger, assuming Churchill doesn\'t pull another Chilukki Day with the track speed.