Kee 10/20 - The Valley View (off the turf - on poly)

[Michael D.]

it\'s going to be difficult for a while, but no better way to learn the poly than to handicap the races:


transmit - by SAf champ, out of a full to BC winner concern. slow start. decent fig in maiden win. held good form last. 1 month timing. rail - should save some ground under melancon.

meribel - solid \'6\' filly. decent post. comes back on 3 weeks. closer prone to traffic issues.

idle quest - out of a nice turf mare. should save all the ground under borel from post 3. no figs fast enough yet.

may night - two solid \'6-7\' runs this summer. got caught behind slow pace out west next, and looks to have bled badly last. 1st lasix here... not sure - could bounce back.

rasta farian - \'tu\' last. castellano went, found company, and wound up wide the entire way. capable of a run in the \'6-7\' range off the freshening.

southern protocol - got to the \'8\' lvl early in the spring, then tailed off when running over soft ground in ny. should bounce back here off the freshening, but no figs fast enough yet.

tiz a fantasy - been working well over the poly. would need to improve about \'3\' pts here.

soothsay - stuck in the \'7-8\' range out west, then ran poorly as the fav in the arl stks.

precious kitten - half to the great ramsey kitten horse. worked way down to a \'4\' at CD in july, then bounced a bit in the IEP stks race. given some time off, then ran very well again last, beating meribel at 9-1, giving everything she had while bearing out. now comes back on three weeks ..... ??

mysterious lina - \'7.5\' top in europe, but gets 1st lasix here. they brought the jock in from france for this one. hmmm.

delmarva - \'8\' top, tough post.

j\'ray - \'10\' top as a 2 yr old, worked down to \'8.75\' in the run ag lady of venice. i expect her to come out running off the long break, tough post though.

pure incentive - gets leparoux, the early king of the poly. \'8.75\' top though, and a brutal post.

....

more when the odds pop up.

......

the 1, transmit, might offer some value here. 20-1 with 13 min to post. comes in a touch slow, but could hit the board with a ground saving trip. other than that, it\'s wide open.

[Michael D.]

well, they bet this one just like a turf race, and they were correct.

this race ran just like a turf race IMO.

[spook_express]

I agree, if they ran it on turf the result may have been the same for the top 3.  I love Meribel, always been a sucker for grass horses that drop back and make a big run, thus my user name.  I guess this poly at Kee does prove to be like turf to the horses.  Nice to see no scratches in a turf stake taken off the weeds.

[sighthound]

I love polytrack.  I\'ve been out to Kee multiple times, the horses are just thriving on it, bouncing over it.  Still can\'t get used to the silence as they run, though.   Watching Oak Tree today, my teeth rattled just watching them run on the dirt.  Ouch.  Can\'t wait until CA goes poly.  What a great thing for the horses, for the sport.

I\'m no great shakes as a handicapper. Maybe the surface just suits my \"lazy style\".  My impression is that poly is exposing horses for exactly what they are - their natural speed, the fitness and base the trainer has put on them, their most comfortable and natural running style.  The horses are confident on it.  They aren\'t getting kickback in their faces, their feet aren\'t sliding out from under them.  

The horses are running their races to the best of their abilities, some trainers are gonna have to change their styles and become better horsemen.  Maybe we handicappers, too.  

We will see better horses across conditions, more fit horses with more base.  They will run more races in their careers.

Why so few wires?  Because that\'s difficult, and it\'s simple, poly doesn\'t artificially help a horse stay out there.  Look at Turfway, the claiming ranks are sorted out more realistically. It\'s all the horse, and the capable jock. The jocks are figuring it out.  My advice is don\'t overanalyze and make it complicated.

Reading Micheal\'s good analysis, what struck me is that for poly, I\'m no longer  focusing as much on \"tough post to overcome\".  The horses don\'t seem to be compromised much by path due to the surface, if they are legged up enough for the distance.  Turf it\'s not ... fair it seems to be.  Honest.  What they are is how they will run.  Does that make sense?  

Just my amateur impressions.  I\'m sold on this for the sport.

[shanahan]

Sightsound I\'m with you...I don\'t win any contests, but I am doing a bit better on the ply...I just think there are fewer surprises, and with more testing (slow pace of course), my guess is there will be fewer and fewer price horse...however, that being said, I predict a rise in popularity as horses stay around longer, thus bigger pools - resulting in price horses as more novice $$ is played.

Yes, the sky is blue in my world.  Go Cards!

[Silver Charm]

Shanahan,

So now that Belmont is closing this weekend, do they start digging next week in time for the spring meet?

[shanahan]

Silver:

hope so...

by the way - your card up at BEL today with all the NY breds looks pretty interesting.  I see Gomex is there to ride a horse inthe 7th...playing him with longshots 9 / 1,6,10,11,16