Urban Legend, Urban Myth Take Your Pick

[Michael D.]

re bernardini -

let\'s see who shows up first before getting married to a position.

if we get flower alley, lawyer ron, lava man, brother derek, strong contender, perfect drift, invasor, george washington, david junior, and sun king, the margin for error is going to be small for bernardini, regardless of how good he is. i could make a strong case against any one of them, but simple math says at least one of them will run to their top on BC day. toss in a 4w/3w trip for berni, and you could get a winner paying $50.

we can say this though -

those who spotted this guy early made a lot of money this year.

those who got on board late at least enjoyed some great racing.

those who have been against him have lost.

[jbelfior]

I think we would all be better off looking for someone on your list to put underneath BERNARDINI for a $50 exacta payoff.

We\'ve seen BERNARDINI before except his name back then was SEATTLE SLEW.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

bobphilo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> >
> > Theres only one way to win at this game.
> Beat
> > vulnerable low odds horses. It really is
> that
> > simple. I\'ve been very patient waiting for
> the
> > right race to oppose Bernardini  and as
> stated
> > I\'ll be in the \"Beat Bernardini\" line.
>
> Not quite Chuckles. The way to beat this game is
> to bet horses who\'s chances of winning are better
> than their odds. That can include some solid
> favorites. Sometimes being so eager to beat low
> priced horses can make people see vulnerabilities
> that are only in the mind of the bettor. Betting
> against horses like Bernardini is the best way to
> lose your money. The thing about looking for
> something too hard is that you start seeing it
> when it\'s not there.
>
> Let\'s see, his JC gold Cup win was against a small
> field. Have you considered that the reason
> Bernardini faced such a small field was that he
> scared them all off? Last month the knock was that
> he\'s getting headstrong and won\'t rate. Well, he
> disproved that one in the GC. Now it\'s because
> he\'ll be facing older horses. Do you think that
> some older horse who is slower than him is going
> to come to him in the race and say \"Hey, I\'m older
> than you, just look at my teeth\" and he will
> decide, to run a poor race. When he looked
> Wanderin Boy in the eye it was the older horse who
> blinked. Good 3YO\'s beat slower older horses all
> the time in the fall.
>
> It\'s amazing how creative one can be when looking
> for something that just isn\'t there.
>
> Bob
> Bob
>


Bob, I\'ll give you credit for nailing Barbaro in the Derby at, what was it 6-1? (I just checked he was the second choice at 6.10-1.) Just note that in the Preakness where Barbaro flopped at 1-2, the Trifecta paid 4k and Super paid 11k  and I\'m on the record with \"Beat Barbaro\" and use Bernardini and Sweetsaint. Construe that however you may. I will grant you that the Derby was more lucrative in those exotics \"if\" you had them.

I don\'t need any advice about stretching, been there done that, bought the T-shirt and learned the lessons. Bernardini raises some concerns for me, but theres enough in his races to doubt him too. I won\'t be betting upon him to win. The strategy will be to oppose him by betting small to win big.

I\'ll lay out more of my plan later. Call me on being wrong afterwards, right now I\'m in strategy mode.

CtC

[flushedstraight]

Latest odds legally available for those outside the land of the free.

101 Bernardini       +110
102 Lava Man         +442
103 Invasor          +673
105 David Junior     +919
106 Sun King         +1322
107 Lawyer Ron       +1924
110 Perfect Drift    +4000
111 Giacomo          +2400
112 Suave            +5000
115 Brother Derek    +5000
116 Super Frolic     +5000
117 Strong Contender +1979
119 Flower Alley     +5000
(Pinnacle)

[Wrongly]

FYI - John Ward said yesterday that Strong Contender was out.  Going on the shelf until Jan. or Feb.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Smart Move