BC Classic Preview

[Wrongly]

http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=35391

Wow, Adain Obrien is shipping Dylan Thomas to the US to take on Bernardini and Invasor on Oct. 7th.  Any opinions on how this Danehill colt will take to the dirt?

[miff]

He will need an act of god to compete with Bernardini whatever his breeding.

[tmon]

His Sire is good on the AW stats. 14% Wins to Runs on the AW in GB and Ireland. Which is the same as his turf %.
He broke his maiden on Firm. (The going, good to firm at the time of declarations, had dried to firm but some of the jockeys complained that it was hard.) He ran his best number on GF this month beating Ouija Board.

[Michael D.]

have to make danehill one of the top 5 sires ever.

\'7.5\' TG ave overall (i think that\'s best).

\'13.5\' TG ave on dirt however (small sample).

out of a diesis mare. that\'s more turf to me.

go back a few generations and you do get some solid dirt blood, but i think that\'s reaching a bit.


can\'t underestimate the class of this tabor runner, and sakhee ran very well in \'01 despite the turf pedigree, but i would demand large odds against bernardini and invasor.

[Ill-bred]

David Junior is where it\'s at!

[Michael D.]

http://www.oddschecker.com/betting/mode/o/card/c38x/odds/2238180x/sid/

[Uncle Buck]

I will bet against Bernardini when he runs against elders, no matter who they are

[Uncle Buck]

In fact, I would be willing to make side bets with the East Coasters that Lava Man and Buzzard\'s Bay (if he makes it back - scheduled to run at Oak Tree) will both crush Bernardini and make him wilt like a flower

[Michael D.]

Ill,

i found this blurb somewhere out there:

\"David Junior, rated by Timeform as the best 1 1/4-mile horse in Europe, will skip his intended date in the Irish Champion Stakes on Sept. 9 and instead head directly to Churchill Downs for the Breeders\' Cup Classic off a four-month layoff.

Trainer Brian Meehan revealed his unorthodox plans for David Junior on Wednesday, taking care to note that the horse is healthy and \"cantering every day.\" The Classic would be his first race on dirt for David Junior, a 4-year-old son of Pleasant Tap.

\"David Junior won in Dubai off five-month absence and has a dirt pedigree,\" Meehan said. \"The Breeders\' Cup Classic has been the plan all the time, and since he got such an early start to the year, we want to have him fresh for that race.\"

Meehan also said that David Junior would remain at his training base near Newbury Racecourse in England until shortly before the Nov. 4 Breeders\' Cup.

The winner of the 1 1/4-mile Group 1 Champion Stakes at Newmarket last Oct. 15 in his final outing as a 3-year-old, David Junior handed last Saturday\'s Arlington Million winner The Tin Man a 3 1/2-length thrashing in the 1 1/8-mile Dubai Duty Free at Nad Al Sheba, on March 25. David Junior was then rested until June 21 when he came home two lengths fourth behind Ouija Board and Electrocutionist in the 1 1/4-mile Group 1 Prince of Wales\'s Stakes at Royal Ascot.\"

[Michael D.]

i love it Buck.

not many willing to take the strong stand these days.

i will, however, take the other side of your bet.

let\'s talk in a month or so.

[TGJB]

Yeah, I think there will be a few takers on this board on Bernardini vs. Lava Man. In fact, you might get me on Super Frolic vs. Lava Man in the Goodwood, especially given the relative odds.

[Michael D.]

Jerry,

re super frolic -

why not defend the haw gold cup title?

[TGJB]

Michael-- We\'re looking at both races, but the Goodwood means not shipping, and will help his value more. Personally, I want to kick LM\'s butt and win one of these California races-- we got screwed  with the dead rail in the Gold Cup, and wide trips in both Pac Classics. We figure to get 7-8 pounds from LM, in a small field which would minimize the chance of it happening again, and since we ran a better number outright last time, I like our chances with the 1 1/2 points pull. A lot.

I actually think LM might run in the grass race, maybe next time and in the BC too. Steve Kenley uses our stuff, and he\'s no idiot.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Uncle Buck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> In fact, I would be willing to make side bets with
> the East Coasters that Lava Man and Buzzard\'s Bay
> (if he makes it back - scheduled to run at Oak
> Tree) will both crush Bernardini and make him wilt
> like a flower

Bold prediction Buck, but I\'m also not convinced that Bernardini\'s restricted class wins are either all that fast or all that impressive. He\'s beaten up on off form, over the top, depleted and weak fields. His main competition in the last race had to retire off of that race. I\'m skeptical to say the least. Plus the Son of a Gun is quite liable to be favored. To my mind it makes staking out a position that he is a restricted class opportunist very easy to do.

Another thing with Bernardini is that he\'s gotten very headstrong. If he runs a headstrong race against his elders that will not bode well for him. To my eye the issue with Lava Man will be the pace. If the pace is too hot it will impact him as well. If he runs in the B.C. Classic his success will depend upon the early presssure but with Bernardini in there as well as another legitimate pace horse or two I\'ll probably be looking to beat them both. If you\'re talking a head to head matchup without necessarily winning, yes I favor Lava Man. Bernardini\'s big 3YO figures don\'t impress me very much.

[shanahan]

tell us about the ride now that a little time has passed....