A Modest Proposal

[Mall]

Wrong. Money Management is the optimal use of betting capital over a long series of wagers, using the Kelly Criteria for example. In other words, what percentage of bankroll should be risked on particular bets.

In contrast, deciding what horse to bet on based on your judgment of its percentage chance to win in comparison to the crowd\'s judgment of is the essence of handicapping. Under your proposed system, & using your example, someone who selects a 3/5 shot with a 50% chance of winning is awarded 20 pts, even though the dopester in question is guilty of dreadful handicapping. Someone who has correctly determined that a 6-1 shot has a 50% chance of winning is also awarded 20 pts, despite his or her excellent handicapping. Depending on the system you use & your risk tolerance, the dopester who decided to bet the 6-1 shot might also decide to ratchet up the amt of the bet because he or she decided that it was a particularly juicy overlay. That would be a money management decision, not a handicapping one, or at least that\'s what I told myself when I took a stand against the even money fav in the nitecap today.

Maybe you should consider using the same system used in the qualifiers & National Championship, so at least those who enter can tell themselves the contest is a practice round. Otherwise, the only appropriate track under the rules you are proposing is Fantasyland Downs.

[Alydar in California]

JB wrote: \"I don\'t have the scene, haven\'t even seen it.\"

JB wrote: \"Mandown hasn\'t been here forever, just since a couple of years before the old man decided to go swimming from a boat.\"

The wordplay in your first sentence notwithstanding, your inability to link \"No Halle Berry tape\" to \"Mandown\" is to your eternal discredit.

[HP]

David,

Whatever you want to do is fine. We\'ll go with your point system, just post it again when you post your picks so there\'s no confusion. Call me Chalky. I\'ll go toe to toe with you picking 4/5 shots any day. You pick the track and the date, either the 14th or the 15th. I don\'t want to spend more than one day on this. You\'ll have no excuses since you picked the terms.

$100 is fine. I will reserve the obvious comment. HP

[dpatent]

Mall,

I don\'t really care what system we use and we all need to acknowledge that there is no
perfect system.  I\'m simply pointing out
that if we allow the odds to affect scoring then we are getting away from a \'skill at picking the best horse\' contest and introducing a number of complexities that I thought we were trying to
eliminate.

As a side note, I don\'t agree with your definition of \'handicapping\'.  Since to \'handicap\' is to assign weights or hindrances to equalize chances of winning,
and since a \'handicap\' race adds (or substracts) weight to horses to
modify their chances of winning, to handicap a race simply means to assign the correct probabilities of winning to each entrant.  There is nothing about handicapping that requires or suggests that one then
incorporates the crowd\'s views and modifies one\'s decisions based on the crowd\'s opinion.

Since HP has accepted, we\'re on.  Let\'s do it
Saturday the 13th.  HP, any preference for tracks?  Also, how will we settle up?  Do you use PayPal?

[HP]

David,

I accept your terms.

I will point out that this has nothing to do with anything anyone anywhere does at the track. In handicapping, the odds ARE the score, and finding value is the ONLY thing that affects your ability to have (and you, DP, have previously singled this out as the MOST important thing) long-term positive ROI. As long as we both have to cope with the same thing, it\'s fine with me. It\'s an unusual set of conditions, so maybe you think you have calculated this to some advantage. Could be an interesting exercise in any case. I\'ll try to learn something.

As for settling up, I don\'t use PayPal. I\'m in New York. If anyone in the Sheets office will agree to accept your money, I will deliver it personally over to 11th st. Can you manage something similar in New York? We\'ll work it out. Where are you? HP

[Mall]

The definitions are not mine David. They are the ones which are used in the literature and, as far as I know, widely accepted in the sport. Whether or not you choose to accept them is of course up to you.

A \"lurker\" was kind enough to email me yesterday\'s \"Wizards National Simulcast Best Bets\", which I am told usually costs $15 but was made available for free yesterday at brisnet. His point was that the Wiz had 5 winners out of 13 selections, not bad & worth 100 pts & perhaps a win in the contest, but that the payoffs were so low($3.60, $4, $6.60,etc) that he barely broke even. He also had an 8-5 shot that ran 2nd & a 4-5 shot which ran 3rd, for which he would additional points. Perhaps someone knows him & could extend a personal invitation to enter the contest. After all, yesterday the Wiz was apparently an excellent handicapper as you define it.

[dpatent]

HP,

I live in Vegas.  If you are going to be at Saratoga on July 27 we can settle up there as I will be in attendance.  If not, I am not averse to giving you my mailing address, though, you may not be as willing.  I\'m happy to use the Ragozin office as an intermediary.  Maybe they can charge my card and give you the cash?

BTW, I have never entered a handicapping contest and have no idea how these rules will play out, though you won\'t here any excuses from me and I\'ll only crow about how I really did at the track if I win more than $20,000.  Then you\'ll really hate me.

Mall,

I love the Wizard!  Can we get Lawton too?
Next contest we\'ll try some other rules.  The permutations are endless.

[TGJB]

Agree. Again, it seems to me you can solve the problem (making it about handicapping, not betting strategy or money management) by simply picking a horse to wager a flat $2 across the board on in every race.

[TGJB]

I was tired. I guess this was comeuppance, then.

[Mall]

Until last yr, the self-proclaimed Wizard appeared on a Capitol OTB TV show during the Sar meet to offer his opinions & be interviewed by Mig\'s agent, who has a great sense of humor & is a much better dopester than the Wiz, who I\'m pretty sure did not understand about 75% of the digs. Anyway, I lost any possible respect I might have had for the Wiz when he touted an alw horse based on a work in company with a stakes horse which he claimed to have witnessed. It turned out that the 2 horses\' works actually took place hrs apart.

As for Lawton, I honestly did not know that he actually existed until the methodology debate. Perhaps you could invite the great Dahlman instead, since he\'s in the desert mulling over his notebook of shoe changes. I wonder what he\'d have to say about your definition of handicapping.

[HP]

David,

Vegas huh? Do you bet for a living or do you have another trade?

Hate is a pretty strong feeling and I can\'t really muster up \'hate\' for you. As superf pointed out, I am very sensitive.

I\'m looking at a busy summer work-wise so I will not be up at the Spa. It\'s my worst track anyway besides Gulfstream. The Ragozin office thing sounds good. I\'ll bring them cash for you or you can figure out a way for them to pay me.

Just figure out what track you want to do and the date and the \'deadline\' for posting and put it up as soon as you can (I would guess late next week).

Toodle-oo --HP

[Alydar in California]

JB wrote: \"I was tired. I guess this was comeuppance, then.\"

I would have thought you got your comeuppance on the 13th of June, possibly at the airport. But you New Yorkers are so self-conscious.

[dpatent1]

HP,

I am not anything close to a professional gambler.  My new job took me to the city.

BTW, please pick what track you want to use for the contest.  It\'s only fair to let you make the selection.  We could go with one or two.

[Mall]

As far as I\'m concerned, Trevino got it right when he observed that most golf bets were decided on the 1st tee. If I remember correctly, one of David\'s methodology arguments was that TG\'s method results in too many noncontenders looking like they have a chance, whereas Rags tend to eliminate these horses. The flip side of course is that Rags\' method eliminates many horses who actually win, often at long odds. I\'m not saying that the pts system was selected with this in mind, although I must admit that the thought crossed my mind.

Given that you have allowed David to select, probably coincidentally, a pt system which is consistent with his methodology argument, there is no reason I can see for you not to select the track or tracks. There was mention earlier of the inflated Rags\' nos at Del & Pim, which seems to be consistent with what I\'ve seen recently. Assuming you have some familiarity with either, perhaps one or both should be on your short list. Mtr might also be worthy of consideration. Nor have I seen anything in the rules thus far which prohibits you from consultations regarding your selection. Choose wisely HP, as your undefeated record & legacy are both hanging in the balance.

[dpatent1]

All I can say in response to Mall\'s comment on the point system is -- and I say this with a smile -- that the people on this board are, collectively, the most paranoid group of otherwise reasonably sane people I have ever come across.

As for the track, the only suggestion I will make regarding the selection is that it I would prefer that it be carried by Bally\'s race book -- they carry all of the major tracks and all of the tracks mentioned by Mall.  Otherwise I won\'t be able to watch the results as they come in.  So, no Yavapi downs, please.