Trainers' pre-race comments

[Dave_K]

One handicapping tool I\'ve found somewhat useful is trainers\' comments, as published in articles in the DRF and also on many tracks\' websites, concerning their entrants\' chances going into a race.  For example, before the Las Virgenes, Baffert said something like, \"We haven\'t been working her [Habibti] too hard because she lost weight since her last and hasn\'t been able to put any weight back on\".  These comments are most useful when trying to gage a horse\'s fitness coming off a layoff.  Often I\'ll read things like, \"We wanted to start him in a X distance or Y class race, but there was nothing available, and we had to start somewhere.\"

[HP]

No offense but I totally disagree. I wish I had a dime for every time I heard a trainer tout his horse (he cleaned out his feed tub!) and then watched him run up the track. And if they bet, they downplay the horse\'s chances and then you can watch them romp home by ten lengths. Trainer comments are probably some of the best reasons to buy TG, just to get past all the BS.

This was the same Bob Baffert who was talking about Point Given before last year\'s Derby, right? It\'s too bad they actually had to run. After the race he gave some excellent reasons why PG didn\'t fire, but it was nothing he could tell you ahead of time. You might as well have listened to the drunks in the grandstand. Yeesh.  HP

[Dave_K]

Well, of course, you can\'t listen to the majority of what they say, especially when they are touting their horse.  The owners who employ the trainers want to hear how great their horse is, so naturally the trainers are going to say it.  But if a trainer says something negative about his horse beforehand, it might be worth listening to.  Occasionally you can pick up a valuable signal amongst all the noise.  

As far as post-race excuses go, I agree with you completely.  Dave Feldman very honestly wrote in his book something like, \"The number one rule of training is to never take the blame for a horse\'s loss.  Blame it on the jockey, the assistant starter, whoever, and if that won\'t work, use the generic excuse, \'The horse just didn\'t like the track.\'\"

[HP]

\'The horse just didn\'t like the track.\'

I love that one! Especially when they\'ve been training over it for awhile. HP

[MO]

I agree whole heartedly. I once read in a handicapping book the quote: \"Trainers would rather be right than win\".

MO

[Mall]

It all depends on who is doing the talking & who he or she is talking to. For example, if Vinny Blengs tells you in the paddock that his horse might run \"okay\", that might be something you want to consider very carefully. BTW, the Wired site indicates the article will be available online on 3/15.

[Dave_K]

Well, of course, if your cousin is the trainer...