Belmont Stakes Figures 2006

[TGAB]

Thoro-Graph figures for the Belmont Stakes 2006 are now available on the ROTW page.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Thank you, seeing the best mass produced Speed Figure Makers opinion is very useful and its generous of you to share it post race.

The figures assigned are interesting. The work reveals that you have assigned Career Tops at the demanding distance of 12 furlongs for the following horses:

Jazil, Career Top of 1 point

Blue Cat, Career Top of 3/4\'s point

Steppenwolfer, Equaling Career Top of 2

Oh So Awesome, Career Top of 2 1/2 points

After Oh So Awesome, everyone \"Bounced\" and most of them bounced badly.

Typically, for Belmont and Belmont Stakes Day, there are no other 2 turn races to help score the Belmont Stakes. Because of that fact this race is always grist for debate regarding scoring and in that regard would another point or 2 be inconsistent with these horses previous efforts, especially considering the fact that they were running 12 furlongs for the first and last times in their careers?

In other words would a Jazil 3.1 really be unthinkable with the T notation, which is surmised trouble at the break? Granted maturing horses have every right to move forward in June, but what about Storm Cats and Seeking the Gold\'s stretching to 12 poles? Do they figure to run their career best races at that distance?

Again, Thank you

CtC

TGAB Wrote:
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> Thoro-Graph figures for the Belmont Stakes 2006
> are now available on the ROTW page.
>
> TGAB

[Uncle Buck]

Has any horse in history ever run five consecutive TG numbers as Steppenwolfer has done with his \"2\'s\"

[miff]

Buck said:

\"Has any horse in history ever run five consecutive TG numbers as Steppenwolfer has done with his \"2\'s\"



Buck,

I have seen more than a few.I recall a grass runner or two that ran the same figure 5 or 6 times in a row.

Mike

[miff]

I have seen two other fig makers that have the race very close to TG.Very slow against the clock for the day, very windy, no other one turners.The figs fit well,imo.

Insult to injury for me that BGC received the best fig but I lost my bets. No moral victories in betting horses.

Mike

[marcus]

 my own personal default point for a horse like jazil is editors note and unless a big price , still probably is best to play for a bounce ( even though jazil didn\'t ) before finally running a new top .

   this years crop seemed exceptionally fragile ,  only a couple tc horse\'s showed well while when running back to old numbers - there are development issues and deterioration is a factor when  young horse\'s become \" pattern compramised \" .

 though i\'m not missing the point of what\'s being said here , none the less ,   a horse who has the breeding  can still run poorly at a distance becouse his pattern was lousy ( or for other reasons ) and numbers have to be looked at in an overall context of a pattern .  

 thanks jerry , al + tg staff for making TG #\'s the \" rolls royce \" of speed figures ...

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff Wrote:
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> I have seen two other fig makers that have the
> race very close to TG.Very slow against the clock
> for the day, very windy, no other one turners.The
> figs fit well,imo.
>
> Insult to injury for me that BGC received the best
> fig but I lost my bets. No moral victories in
> betting horses.
>
> Mike

its always a tough race to score The distance variable makes it so.

They\'ve applied all the science to it they can and have come up with career tops for 3 horses in the race (granted Oh So Awesomes top isn\'t as hard to accept) and a paired top for Steppenwolfer who had a difficult race.

Distance is the critical factor. Maybe its being skeptical but those horses were questionable to run big in that race. Add the path bias issue into the mix and the track quickness and its a very ripe race for debate.

Bottom line is that if the race had been at 9 furlongs, who would questions it? Not many. But career tops from the likes of those horses at 12 panels is a very difficult conclusion to accept. The next issue is \"How relevant is it if they were a point or two slower than scored?\" Thats a good question. In other words, how relevant is the figure earned at 12 panels to their next start at 9? The answer may be that the difference between a 1.1 or a 3.1 in the Belmont Stakes is not very relevant to the Haskell. In other words the Belmont Stakes figure can be tossed in handicapping their next race back.

Its alot easier to toss when its a career top at a unique distance.

[J-DUB]

       CtC,

             Agree with your thought. I stated in a post on Belmont day that the figures are to be thrown out because of the distance. It is just such a unique distance, IMO the Belmont at 1 1/2 miles for 3 yo is an entity all it\'s own. Very difficult to apply \"speed\" figures to it. No reason to not take the after race figures with a grain of salt as well.

             At the very least you should factor in with your handicapping of their next start. Just my opinion on the Belmont in particular.


           

[P-Dub]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
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 In other words, how relevant is the
> figure earned at 12 panels to their next start at
> 9? The answer may be that the difference between a
> 1.1 or a 3.1 in the Belmont Stakes is not very
> relevant to the Haskell. In other words the
> Belmont Stakes figure can be tossed in
> handicapping their next race back.
>
> Its alot easier to toss when its a career top at a
> unique distance.
>


Good point Chuckles.  Its just 1 race in many, the relevance to future races is minimal. Kind of like tossing the Ky Derby number for horses that have brutal trips, etc...  But it is obviously a positive if a horse ran a solid race, regardless of the exact number given by JB.

[miff]

I\'m more of the opinion that I would give an automatic mulligan to all poor performers and view the good performances separate from the actual fig awarded.

[davidrex]

Miff: succinct

[flushedstraight]

Six straight Travers champs 99 thru 04 all set new tops in the Belmont (Flower Alley skipped Alex\'s swansong drubbing of cripples last year).

Two were odds-on gorillas and the other four were arguable overlays.

Draw your own conclusions at your own risk.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

flushedstraight Wrote:
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> Six straight Travers champs 99 thru 04 all set new
> tops in the Belmont (Flower Alley skipped Alex\'s
> swansong drubbing of cripples last year).
>
> Two were odds-on gorillas and the other four were
> arguable overlays.
>
> Draw your own conclusions at your own risk.

Keep in mind the Travers is merely the 4th jewel of the Triple Crown for 3YO\'s. and amongst fellow Sophomores they can all certainly be of lesser class than other crops.