PREAKNESS-2 HORSE RACE PERIOD?

[high roller]

looks like barbaro will bounce but the only horse that can beat him is bernadini ala red bullet

don\'t know what jerry gave him in the withers?

[JJP]

I\'m not sure why the strong respect for Bernadini.  He basically won a match race in a one turn mile against Luxembourg and won a one turn mile against maidens at GP.  Unless they make the Preakness a one turn mile, he doesn\'t have a chance to finish in front of either BD or SNS, let alone Barbaro.  And he might not beat Like Now, either.

[miff]

JJP,

They like him because he ran pretty fast(about 0 on TG,imo), won with great authority and has the breeding to any kind.True, he beat little and has never run two turns. His upside potential seems very high though.

Mike

[NoCarolinaTony]

Every year it seems that certain people are \"making excuses\" why \"their horse\" lost the Derby (SNS & Brother Derek for example) to somehow justify their Derby selection and maintain an allegiance to \"their Horse\".

In addition, a good majority is looking for value and see none with Barbaro in the race. Lastly - Everyone seems compelled to have to bet the Preakness because its a triple crown race.

Right now I am passing. Will wait for Belmont day and watch it play out. I personally don\'t see the value there yet, or formulated a betting strategy that gets me there.

You have got to divorce yourself from emotional attachments to horses and bet each race as it comes up.

NC Tony

[hossgnat]

NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Every year it seems that certain people are
> \"making excuses\" why \"their horse\" lost the Derby
> (SNS & Brother Derek for example) to somehow
> justify their Derby selection and maintain an
> allegiance to \"their Horse\".
>
> In addition, a good majority is looking for value
> and see none with Barbaro in the race. Lastly -
> Everyone seems compelled to have to bet the
> Preakness because its a triple crown race.
>
> Right now I am passing. Will wait for Belmont day
> and watch it play out. I personally don\'t see the
> value there yet, or formulated a betting strategy
> that gets me there.
>
> You have got to divorce yourself from emotional
> attachments to horses and bet each race as it
> comes up.
>
> NC Tony
>

Agreed. I\'ll pass on this race too, unless I develop a strong opinion on who will complete the exacta.  Barbaro looks unplayable, unless you\'re the kind of player who is willing to unload on 3-5 shots.  I\'m not.

The Belmont may be more interesting, but I doubt it. I know many handicappers downplay the jock as a factor, but I see Prado making all the difference, if it comes down to that.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Every year it seems that certain people are
> \"making excuses\" why \"their horse\" lost the Derby
> (SNS & Brother Derek for example) to somehow
> justify their Derby selection and maintain an
> allegiance to \"their Horse\".
>
> In addition, a good majority is looking for value
> and see none with Barbaro in the race. Lastly -
> Everyone seems compelled to have to bet the
> Preakness because its a triple crown race.
>
> Right now I am passing. Will wait for Belmont day
> and watch it play out. I personally don\'t see the
> value there yet, or formulated a betting strategy
> that gets me there.
>
> You have got to divorce yourself from emotional
> attachments to horses and bet each race as it
> comes up.
>
> NC Tony
>
>
>
> Edited 2 times. Last edit at 05/13/06 01:03AM by
> NoCarolinaTony.

Regarding the Preakness from another perspective:

Barbaro just Career Topped. Some think it wasn\'t as big a top as others, but regardless it was a top and a Regression is certainly possible. In my opinion Barbaro is vulnerable to Regression, (Less than a 2 Point Backward Move), because his Derby Top was not that much faster than the Prep Race Tops of some of those he beat in the Derby. (Some have his Derby Top slower than the Prep Tops of the others and factored Barbaros Derby trip bias aided.)

If he Regresses to say Tgraph -.5 to +.5, which is certainly possible, is he beatable?

Then add to that his sterling undefeated record, record Derby victory margin and the public\'s love affair with the Hero and his Horse and you have a very nice target. To me he\'ll still be a hero regardless of whether he wins the Triple Crown or not. Beating him the first time could be very lucrative. As Birdstone\'s defeat of Smarty Jones was. Unfortunately i had a Smarty Birdstone huge perfecta and didn\'t turn it around.

Caveat, I think I said the same thing about Barbaro After the Florida Derby.

lol

CtC

[JEB]

I would agree with Chuckles.

Looking at the T-Graph figures assigned from the derby, a slight bounce from Barbaro puts him pretty close to Brother Derek territory. Considering Barbaro has always had a month off between starts, a slight backward move or a bad draw that causes him a 3W3W type of a trip could get him beat. Also, their have been several horses that bounced in the derby and then moved forward to win the Preakness(Point Given and Afleet Alex) or paired in the derby and then went forward to win(Louis Quatorze).

So looking at the derby horses being mentioned, is it a big stretch to see Brother Derek or SweetNorthernSaint move forward and make an impact in the Preakness?  These horses have run fast enough to win the Preakness and if they get back to their prior fig\'s, they will have an impact.

I am not saying that Barbaro should not win but if you can get Derek or SNS at 6-1 in an 8-horse field because of it, it looks like a chance to me.

John

[miff]

Why are so many underestimating the effort of BD. Visually and fig wise, he does not exactly look like he\'s sitting on dead red to me.

Mike

[Uncle Buck]

 Brother Derek will bounce I feel. I think it\'s a four horse race with:

1. Barbaro
2. SNS
3. Bernadini
4. Like Now

[NoCarolinaTony]

Someone please explain to me why Barbaro \"has to bounce\" (Chucles explanation is valid here and I can accept his explanation) while Brother Derek who also worked very hard in same race or Sweetnorthersaint who ran a very strong middle to get into that race also can\'t bounce too? BD is due to bounce soon in my opinion.

NC Tony