Ky Oaks

[Michael D.]

Balance looks tough. Three runs in the \'5\' range before improving in the SA Oaks. Looks like she will get the distance. Low odds the issue.

Ermine has a nice looking line. Two fast sprints as a two year old, and two good races this year. I think she can run back to her last, or even improve a touch, which puts her right there at decent odds.

Lemons Forever can pick up some pieces at huge odds if they collapse. I like the \'9\' and \'7\' to start the year. Can excuse the poly effort. \'4\' or \'5\' maybe?

Wait a While could run in the \'3\' range, which puts her close.

Wonder Lady could also run in the \'3\' range.
....

I will key Ermine at 10-1 or so, use the rest underneath.

[SoCalMan2]

Dear Michael,

I like your analysis of this race a lot and concur.  I would add add some minor touches, (a) consider putting Ermine in the 1st and 2nd positions, (b) when you spread, consider including Ex Caelis.  I hope your analysis proves correct.

SCM2  

[Michael D.]

Thanks SoCal .....

I expect Ex Caelis to be a factor. I\'m not sure she gets the 9f though, even though she\'s bred for it.

[miff]

Jerry,


Can you explain the day at KEE for Bushfire\'s one(1). Crosschecking the fig looks more like 3-4 comparing it to 3 other credible sources. Raw time at 1:45 with last 5/16ths in 34.20 is very slow.I do not have the data for that day handy. Obviously you found something. Please let me know if you are not too busy. thanks

Mike

[big18741]

Struggling with Ermine getting a winning trip given her post and running style.

The race sets up for both Balance and Wonder Lady if they\'re feeling good today.

 Boxing those two in exactas and using on top of 6,8,12,14 tris and supers.


                               Good Luck


                     

[Michael D.]

Mike,

I don\'t doubt that she ran a very fast one. Although, using Jerry\'s measure, if you believe that number, you have to believe that she would have beaten FuPeg by about four lengths in the Ky Derby.

[jmetro]

Kent Desormeaux gets reunited on Quiet Kim and I expect her to be coming from further off of the pace than the races where P VAl rode her.  Should sit a nice stalking trip behind the two speed horses drawn insider her.  Hess has stated she\'s a filly that either loves or hates a track.  Her 6F work at CD is encouraging.

[kev]

Lemons Forever
Ermine
Balance

That\'s my play

[Michael D.]

jmetro,

QK had a much better trip that Balance in the SA Oaks, actually ran about seven lengths slower. Do you think she can make up the difference stretching out? Price will be huge though. Good luck.

[TGJB]

Mike-- the Ashland was straightforward. First of all, off the horses, Bushfire is the only one that got a new top, and since she won by a block and cleared Balance and the rest by another block, that figures. As you can see from the figures WAW and Balance ran, it fitted well this way with them, and by memory with the others.

That aside, there were 3 routes on the day. One was mis-timed, and I cut it loose (added about 3). The other 2 I did within a point, taking off 1 more for the Ashland, and you can see that adding a point would make for funny looking figures for WAW and B, and do nothing to make Bushfire look better.

[J-DUB]

     I like the previous race of Diplomat Lady. I think she can stretch out today and run well at a price.

[miff]

Thanks Jerry,


Fyi,just got the Rags fig also for Brushfire,it\'s 8\". When these differences come up and I look at all the different data, my hair hurts.

Mike

[TGJB]

Miff-- when I hear about the differences I get very, very happy.

[reboundman]

Give me Wonder Lady Anne L

[tmcdevitt]

I haven\'t seen a word posted about her, so I\'ll head way out on a limb; Unless I\'m crazy, she crashes the bottom spots of the super for big $

-Kee Race; She was already 12 lengths back coming out of the Clubhoue turn and kept pace with the winner the rest of the way and actually made a nice move around the turn to finish exactly the same distance behind Balance as she did 2/11. The race will be totally obscured by the 68 Beyer

-2/11, again, unless I\'m crazy, PVAL actually checks her on the far turn and lets Balance go ahead rather than going 5 wide around the turn. Tries to catch her by staying on the same line as Balance and swinging out in the stretch. Actually thought this was a very nice move by PVAL. Again finishes a couple of lengths behind balance

Balance will be 2-1, Itty Bitty Pretty 20-1. She can\'t win, but she can definitely make the super very, very nice.