Derby Pick Thread -- Only Derby Picks (no discussion)

[colt]

That Southern Cal based horses look much the best here.  Patterns are real healthy and I am not going to get suckered into SWEETNORTHERNSAINT, who ran a tremendous race last out, but #s achieved over HAW don't seem to get carried over elsewhere – I am well aware that WAR EMBLEM won the Ky Derby.  I am going with POINT DETERMINED, BOB AND JOHN, AP WARRIOR, & BROTHER DEREK.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I like 2 horses. To my knowledge they are the two fastest horses per TGraph. That \"knowledge\" reinforces what I think of them and fortified me with courage to do what I did. There are many speed figures out there. But at this time of year the folks that do it best reside at this site. And I\'d be remiss in not mentioning the difficulty and challenge in accurately assigning figures to maturing, improving horses all coming in from different tracks. A monumental task. Once in a Blue Moon, I\'ve had disagreements here, but thats part of the inquiry. That said, I\'m following Tgraph this year and if these two horses don\'t run well, who will question the figures assigned to them by the host? Blasphemy!

Where to start. How did Baffert get a hold of Sinister Minister? Did he not show tremendous promise in that maiden win? Even if it was a maiden claimer. He ran a Tgraph 3 (Beyer 102) ran with the pace horses and buried them late. That told you something.

Secondly, That California Derby was not an optical illusion. Sinister for whatever reason collided with the rail, TWICE! That allowed Cause to Believe to win that race. No way Cause gets up without that nonsense. After being passed Sinister fought back and got back to approximately even momentum terms in my estimation. That tells me he wasn\'t simply tiring, which the Bluegrass makes moot anyway.

Thirdly, The Bluegrass was not an optical illusion. He buried them and he did it, believe it or not on the wrong lead. Thats right, he wrong lead buried them to death. He even broke in the air a step slow. I know its Keeneland but that race gives me goosebumps. Now, according to observers, he\'s learned to change leads. Its only his 6th race. He\'s still learning.

Fourth, observers say he absolutely destroyed the track in his last gallop. Decimated it. Took no prisoners. Threw down the gauntlet.

Fifth, I\'ve seen him work and I\'ve never seen a horse move like him. He has spider legs that stretch forever. His back end is a ballet. In the work I saw, he was crawling under restraint and then the jock let him go for just an instant and he launched, but he launched smoothly. That work, out goose bumped the Blue Grass.

Sixth, I think the track will really carry an honest front end horse today.

Maybe I\'m all wet, but I got the Gold Standard. I\'ve got the fastest Tgraph horse.

Beat him if you can!!!

SoS to save.

[tmcdevitt]

Chuckels, after all the negativity we\'ve posted on SM, Kudos to you for taking a stand. I still think he\'ll be lucky to make the top 10, but I was SURE you would jump off him.

Good luck

[Blind Switch]

But how? Just on the lead and gone?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Blind Switch Wrote:
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> But how? Just on the lead and gone?


If he wins, its gonna have to be POOF he was gone.

I may be ok with an SoS win too. But the lions share is on Sinister.

[ronwar]

Pat will not let SM get away.  In fact, I think Keyed Entry inherits the lead and sticks around for a long long long long time. Pletcher and PVal! Keyed Entry on top, box\'em with the SNS and Brother D in the tri and add Private Vow to the super...They will still be waiting for a pace meltdown up front