Why is everyone negative on BD?

[Tony]

I really don\'t get it. Everyone is making it seem like he will be up front on a fast pace. This horse has the line to win.

Also, remember when everyone thinks one way the opposite happens.

I thinks he will relax and rate off the pace.

[Bally Ache]

Tony,

Aren\'t you bothered at all by his works?

[jbelfior]

Tony---


Not sure it\'s about being negative as opposed to taking a shot against a potential 4-1 in a 20 horse field who may be vulnerable because he has not shown any indication that he can be relaxed for very long.

His PP line absolutely screams major contender, I agree.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[kev]

Does he have a choice but to rate. He\'s not fast enough up front to run early with the others and how will he handle running 4th or 5th for the frist time.

[miff]

\"I really don\'t get it. Everyone is making it seem like he will be up front on a fast pace. This horse has the line to win.

Also, remember when everyone thinks one way the opposite happens.

I thinks he will relax and rate off the pace.\"


Tony,  

From his last two works it is fairly evident that they are trying to get BD to relax/gear down.He leaves So Cal,no bute and will not control the race while facing early gas as never before.The last time BD was presented with a similar situation was the Breeders Cup. Do you undestand why some(me included) will toss him. His line, that you referred to, may not be as relevant under Saturdays conditions.

Good luck!!

Mike

[Dana666]

I can\'t imagine someone not believing that as of right now, Brother Derek IS certainly at the head of his class. He is the deserving Derby favorite, likely to go off around 4-1 or 9-2 by post time -- that\'s not bad odds if you love him. You\'ll never get 9-2 on him again!

As far as short fields, everyone out west was afraid of him.

He\'s a classy, smooth-moving animal. The distance won\'t beat him, but the pace very likely will. That they\'re trying to get him to relax is interesting. In a way, they are taking his best weapon out of his arsenal -- he\'s an intimidator. He needs to be in front. He\'s not stalking anyone. When he gets in front, other horses are scared to pass him; there are very few like that, but he\'s one of them. That they want to try and slow him down is as stupid as it gets.

He has been at his peak since early in the winter; he\'s sure not going any faster, I can tell you all that. The race when he beat Stevie Wonder Boy was a very fast race, one he will never likely exceed. He\'s pretty much got to run back to that level and hold that for a mile and a quarter against several others who are probably as good as Stevie Wonder Boy -- that\'s no easy task.

From a betting standpoint, there is just too much other value in the race to take the favorite. If he wins, he\'ll have earned it, even if all the other speeds decide to rate, and I don\'t see that happening. In fact, I don\'t think he can possibly hold up to a super fast pace over a mile and a quarter - say 22 and change 45 and change 110 and change. I believe he will be inhaled late by the stamina types. I can\'t blame anyone who bets on this horse or likes him, he\'s hard not to like. He\'s as classy as they come.

[scottv]

If I hadn\'t seen Funny Cide stalk a blistering pace and win, I would not like BD.  But, IF, BD lays two to three lengths behind speed horses and takes them over at the top of the stretch, he might have enough in the tank to hold off the closers.   This is the scenario that scares me about BD.  PP draw will anwswer this also.  If he has to draw inside, he\'s probably done.

[flushedstraight]

Considering 15 are choosing post position before BD, the only way he WILL get a close to the pace ground saving trip like Funny Cide is if he does draw inside. Tagg chose early and wisely, and arguably the trip gave him the edge over rival Empire Maker who beat him in NY before and after the derby.

It\'s fairly safe to say these situations are not comparable, and BD will not have the same type of edge. Then again, he might not need it.

 

[alm]

No bute?  Are you kidding?

Kentucky permits more painkillers on race day than any other place...what do you think put Charismatic over the top?  D. Wayne\'s superb touch?  The Bluegrass water?

Maybe I should take BD more seriously since he\'s about to feel NO pain.

[miff]

\"No bute? Are you kidding?

Kentucky permits more painkillers on race day than any other place...what do you think put Charismatic over the top? D. Wayne\'s superb touch? The Bluegrass water?

Maybe I should take BD more seriously since he\'s about to feel NO pain.\"


ALM,

You\'re kidding,Kentucky is permissive on pain meds? I\'m tapping out on BD.Thanks



Mike