Private Wow

[spa]

Under the radar...he\'s 15 lengths faster at 3, than at 2. He may be 50/1!!!!!

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

spa Wrote:
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> Under the radar...he\'s 15 lengths faster at 3,
> than at 2. He may be 50/1!!!!!

Spa, lets assume he\'s really already demonstrated that he is 15 lengths faster at 3 than at 2, despite the fact that he hasn\'t won at 3 or even finished within 4 lengths of Lawyer Ron. If he is that much faster, Lawyer Ron and Steppenwolfer are Loads.

Which two year old race can you point to and say theres the sign of good things to come? The 2 length win over High Cotton? Does anyone really think thats a good horse?

He\'s got an awful lot to overcome, including the light 3YO campaign.

[SoCalMan2]

I haven\'t looked at the sheets yet, so I have no idea what I think about this year\'s Derby.  However, I do know that I do not think PV\'s light 3 yo campaign is a detraction.  He might not be fast enough.  His sheet may look awful, but having only two races is not going to be his downfall.  If he is coming into the Derby off two races that point to a big move forward (and that forward move would make him competitive -- a big if), then I would think he would represent significant value at his likely price.  In my view, I would be more concerned about some of these Derby contenders having too much of a campaign before the Derby.  Some of these guys may have left their \'A\' game in the preps.  Some of these guys are coming into the Derby off a very taxing lengthy campaign already and may be finished until the Summer (with the Derby being the usual \'X\' you see before horses go off on their breaks).  I do not believe that Brother Derek took any time off since his 4th place in the Breeders Cup.  He has put out a lot of big efforts since October with no break.  I would prefer PV\'s campaign over Brother Derek\'s all other things being equal.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
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> I haven\'t looked at the sheets yet, so I have no
> idea what I think about this year\'s Derby.
> However, I do know that I do not think PV\'s light
> 3 yo campaign is a detraction.  He might not be
> fast enough.  His sheet may look awful, but having
> only two races is not going to be his downfall.
> If he is coming into the Derby off two races that
> point to a big move forward (and that forward move
> would make him competitive -- a big if), then I
> would think he would represent significant value
> at his likely price.  In my view, I would be more
> concerned about some of these Derby contenders
> having too much of a campaign before the Derby.
> Some of these guys may have left their \'A\' game in
> the preps.  Some of these guys are coming into the
> Derby off a very taxing lengthy campaign already
> and may be finished until the Summer (with the
> Derby being the usual \'X\' you see before horses go
> off on their breaks).  I do not believe that
> Brother Derek took any time off since his 4th
> place in the Breeders Cup.  He has put out a lot
> of big efforts since October with no break.  I
> would prefer PV\'s campaign over Brother Derek\'s
> all other things being equal.

I\'m not a huge believer in the Bounce. A long campaign doesn\'t faze me in the least. As a matter of fact, a long campaign is a sign of something I want in my horses. But I don\'t think campaign is what will beat Bro Derek if he loses. I don\'t think it will be campaign that beats Lawyer Ron either. I don\'t think this horse missed time due to careful handling.

As far as horses not generally equaling their tops in the Derby, horses generally are running 10 furlongs for the first time there and I do not believe Zeds at six furlongs are repeatable at 10 furlongs. Thats Chuckles the Clown Dicta, take it for what its worth.

He\'s obviously run into some pretty good horses in Lawyer Ron and Steppenwolfer. I\'m assuming his last race equates to a TGraph top for him. Who knows, maybe he can even equal that in the Derby. But to my eye, that won\'t be enough. The problem was he was getting late in the Ark and he was got to. What your left with is a \"Wishing and Hoping\" horse. I hope hes rounding into his best form. I wish for a lifetime top in the next race. What kind of record do Asmussen and White Mercedes have in bringing their horse to a lifetime top in the Derby?

2004 Quintin\'s Gold Rush - Came into the Derby off a top (Dead)

2002 Private Emblem - Came into the Derby off a top (Dead)

2001 Fifty Stars - Came into the Derby off a nice line and a paired top. Regressed. At least he\'s not dead. May have been Pre White Mercedes

Are these guys the patient, \"We give them time\", type? We round them into form type?

I don\'t see it.

[SoCalMan2]

Chuckles,

Are you a classhandicapper imposter?  I am having a hard time understanding your response. The heading on this thread is about Private Vow.  As far as I can tell, you wrote in your first post that, among other things, PV needed to overcome a light 3 yo campaign.  I took issue with that single item (I acknowledged that he may not be a contender, but his light prep was NOT a problem).  In your response to me, I am not sure what you have to say about his light campaign.  If there is something, it went right over my head. I think the stuff about Asmussen and White Mercedes may have been about that topic, but that stuff is way too obtuse for me to understand.  If you have somethign to say about PV\'s light campaign, I am not sure what that is.

As far as the possibility of overcampaigning, I guess you do not believe in El Gran Senor\'s adage about the lemon.  While the bounce theory may be overdone in some corners, it is rare to find a person who does not believe that horses\' have form cycles. I can\'t think of a single sport of any kind where an athlete gives peak performance after peak performance without a sub-effort being thrown in anywhere at some point. Secretariat and Monarchos both lost the Wood Memorial before running the only Derbies (other than Sham\'s) in under 2 minutes. If they were capable of throwing in a sub-equine effort, why can\'t any horse?  I am not saying that Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron are in deep doo doo because of their lengthy campaigns.  I am saying that I think they are at a greater risk of running an off effort due to their preparation than Private Vow is due to his.  The regression is coming at some point.  The more activity at the top effort they have, the more vulnerable they are to reaching the regression point.  Maybe trainers who read this forum can weigh in because you and I are probably the least qualified people to discuss this.  All other things being equal, I would rather be betting a relatively fresh horse coming into the Derby rather than a horse that may have completed his current stage of development and may be in for some regression before continuing on with the natural development process.

Anyway, I am eager to have a race to handicap so I can see if any of this stuff is relevant anyhow.  I think the way the figures look on the page will have a far greater impact on my evaluation than any of this arcana we are jousting over.

Regards,

SCM2

[NoCarolinaTony]

Isn\'t Assmussens style to fire right out of the box like all his 2YO\'s do?

So if he didn\'t have this one cranked ready to run off the shelf is he trying something different with this horse? (ie training him up to big race?).

Very interesting. Will have to look at his sheets later.

NC Tony

[big18741]

He looks like he could improve in his next start off a small new top.Asmussen is a little better 3rd off the layoff.That\'s the good news.

Now for the bad news.His running style is awful for this race.He\'s a rank horse who wants to be near the pace which ain\'t the place to be in this years field.If you\'re betting him or even using him do you think Asmussen/Bridgmohan can get him to relax -drop back middle of the pack and then proceed to pass horses down the backside into the turn while holding off the horses in behind him? The only thing he\'s done in a two turn race is wear down High Cotton while getting a perfect stalking trip.Do you think the extra eigth of a mile will help him?

This has to be owner motivated.Asmussen needs to find a better spot for this colt instead of wasting him in here on Saturday.

[jimbo66]

Private Vow being 15 lengths faster at 3 than at two, is a very poor (dumb?) comment, unless you are projecting that he WILL be that much faster in the future.  He is NO faster at 3, than at 2.

Private Vow hasn\'t run a new top yet as a 3 year old, on anybody\'s figures.  Not Tgraph, Rags or Beyers.  He equalled his 2 year old top on Tgraph.

You could argue that his pattern calls for a move forward on Saturday, which is pretty plausible, but he needs a pretty significant move forward to win, and probably at least 2 points forward to be in the Super.  The other problem is that as we have all commented, the probable pace scenario does not favor horses like PRivate Vow.

[Bally Ache]

Don\'t want to pile on here but I agree with Jimbo 66 & Big 18741.  Where is the improvement in this horse?  His stretch run in the Ark. Derby was not impressive, particularly if you don\'t think too much of the horses he couldn\'t keep up with.

[SoCalMan2]

I have not seen any of the relevant races and I have not seen the relevant sheets.  I have no idea whether Private Vow has a shot or not. My only point was that the fact he has only had two prepatory races is not a detriment IF his sheet otherwise looks good.  

[JR]

Sorry dude, but PV\'s last was a 1/2 pt. new top from his 2yo top.

[Tony]

You will be licking your wounds on Saturday. Maybe a suck up for fourth

[big18741]

JR Wrote:
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> Sorry dude, but PV\'s last was a 1/2 pt. new top
> from his 2yo top.


Correct,and I don\'t hold the fact that he only had two preps against him.

Everything else points to an up the track run on Saturday.

[jimbo66]

JR and Big18741

By Thorograph standard, that race is considered a pair up.  A new top is 1 point or greater.  If you look at the graph, you will see it is categorized as a pairup.

PV could run a new top here, but he is 6 points slower than Sinister Minister, at least 3 points slower than SweetNorthernSaint, and marginally slower than the 12 of the 17 other horses in the race.  That, combined with his pace disadvantage, make him a reach, even at appealing odds.

But you know what, you can never criticize anybody for using 30-1 shots.  it is using false favorites and undervalued horses, that deserves criticism.

My only issue was with the comment reflecting PV being \"l5 lengths faster this year\".

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles,
>
> Are you a classhandicapper imposter?  I am having
> a hard time understanding your response. The
> heading on this thread is about Private Vow.  As
> far as I can tell, you wrote in your first post
> that, among other things, PV needed to overcome a
> light 3 yo campaign.  I took issue with that
> single item (I acknowledged that he may not be a
> contender, but his light prep was NOT a problem).
> In your response to me, I am not sure what you
> have to say about his light campaign.  If there is
> something, it went right over my head. I think the
> stuff about Asmussen and White Mercedes may have
> been about that topic, but that stuff is way too
> obtuse for me to understand.  If you have
> somethign to say about PV\'s light campaign, I am
> not sure what that is.
>
> As far as the possibility of overcampaigning, I
> guess you do not believe in El Gran Senor\'s adage
> about the lemon.  While the bounce theory may be
> overdone in some corners, it is rare to find a
> person who does not believe that horses\' have form
> cycles. I can\'t think of a single sport of any
> kind where an athlete gives peak performance after
> peak performance without a sub-effort being thrown
> in anywhere at some point. Secretariat and
> Monarchos both lost the Wood Memorial before
> running the only Derbies (other than Sham\'s) in
> under 2 minutes. If they were capable of throwing
> in a sub-equine effort, why can\'t any horse?  I am
> not saying that Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron are
> in deep doo doo because of their lengthy
> campaigns.  I am saying that I think they are at a
> greater risk of running an off effort due to their
> preparation than Private Vow is due to his.  The
> regression is coming at some point.  The more
> activity at the top effort they have, the more
> vulnerable they are to reaching the regression
> point.  Maybe trainers who read this forum can
> weigh in because you and I are probably the least
> qualified people to discuss this.  All other
> things being equal, I would rather be betting a
> relatively fresh horse coming into the Derby
> rather than a horse that may have completed his
> current stage of development and may be in for
> some regression before continuing on with the
> natural development process.
>
> Anyway, I am eager to have a race to handicap so I
> can see if any of this stuff is relevant anyhow.
> I think the way the figures look on the page will
> have a far greater impact on my evaluation than
> any of this arcana we are jousting over.
>
> Regards,
>
> SCM2


Can\'t fill in all the blanks. Obviously, a light campaign in and of itself is not the death knell. Lammatara for instance, but that campaign was planned. Private Vow is not about light campaign alone. The discussion was not about light campaign. You can\'t restrict it to that. You can\'t modify the issue. The issue is multi faceted. If you fixate upon light campaign alone and head off tangentally in that direction should we follow when the logical flow of the discussion was more?  

What I said to spa was this:

\"He\'s got an awful lot to overcome, including the
 light 3YO campaign.\"

You even acknowledged that and want to discuss his light campaign alone in regard to viability? Does that make sense?

That said, his 2YO foundation is sufficient, even if notable only for beating second rate horses. His 3YO efforts within a light 3YO campaign are the issue when combined with a 2YO campaign that doesnt hold up under scrutiny.  

You think you\'re talking to Class? I can\'t even mention who it feels like I\'m conversing with. Why is this necessary? Is it an implication and language barrier due to connotation and culture?

Private Vow does not have a managed light 3YO campaign issue. The tenor of the thread is not about light campaigns. It is about the viability of Private Vow considering the totality of circumstances including compelled light campaign.

If he did have a managed 2 race 3YO campaign, I would still disagree with your premise that light campaigns alone are not negative, but its not something I want to discuss and I\'m puzzled you intrepreted the thread to take it here. I\'m winnowing horses. That should be our focus.

I\'ve wasted too much time.