Just Part of The Game

[big18741]

richiebee Wrote:
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> Big:
>
>    You are talking about this filly, who you are
> obviously very familiar with, as if she is slowly
> rounding into form. In her LAST race she got beat
> 3/4 of a length in a Grade II, coming very close
> to going by Smokey Glacken and the winner of
> today\'s race.

  I didn\'t think Smokey Glacken had her A game that day.She was done at the end of that race,and is evidently taking a vacation.Annika Lass would have gone past her in a few jumps,but was never getting by Magnolia Jackson in that one or todayIMO.I can only go by that Labor Day race as a gauge.She ran a 1 and was on cruise control.Her last race was a 3.75 and I suspect this one was similar.I just think she needed two under her belt and can now get back to her top in the next race.
>

>    No matter what your connection to an animal is,
> owner, trainer, bettor, you do not like to see the
> jockey put the animal in a spot where it is
> necessary to yank on the animal\'s jaw severely,
> the way that C. Hill did today.

I could be wrong,but I don\'t think she was going to pass the 1-2 horses even with a clean trip.Trickle of Gold was finished,so even though Hill found trouble once he got Annika straightened out he had no trouble passing that one for 3rd.

Was the rail bad today? If it wasn\'t Hill should have just stayed inside.Trickle of Gold was under a ride on the turn to hold off Magnolia Jackson.If Hill is paying attention he has to see Jeremy Rose is out of horse and the rail is going to open up wider when Trickle of Gold starts to drift out.

If its my horse Hill isn\'t getting on her anymore.She broke bad and was bumped around in the first race.In this one he found trouble in a small field.Why screw around? Asmussen is supposed to be best 3rd race of the layoff.Put a top rider up in her next race and be done with it.
>
>    And since you viewed the head on, describe for
> the class the amount of ground Smith lost. At 9/1
> (longest shot on board), I had Grecian sandwiched
> in between Foreverness (longest shot on the board)
> and Majestic Karakorum (winner of race 9, beating
> a heavy favorite) in a Pick 3. As TGJB points out,
> my bet would not have equalled the winner\'s purse
> (nowhere close) but after nearly 30 years of
> betting races, I have not done a good job of
> getting used to losing.
>
 I only watched Annika and what was going on in front of her on the head on so I can\'t comment on Grecian,but it sounds like you have every right to be pissed given the potential payoff.
>
>

[miff]

Richiebee,

I thought he was game too but you could have timed the race with a sun dial. The track was not all that slow. The other two turn race race was also very slow compared to the rest of the dirt races.Maybe the two turn races were more compromised by the surface.

Friend Chuck is stuck on Keyed Entry in the derby. Shocking to me how a guy with a decent opinion could like a rather one dimensional runner in this of all derbies.Just heard P.Val gets the mount on KE.He can make a billy goat dangerous.

Tough trip on Annika, I think she broke a little sharp and ran up into that bad spot by herself.I know wide Mikey, he\'s ok, maybe fell too many times.He was a fearless and ferocious rider when he first came to NY.

Mike

[richiebee]

Miff:

    Chuckles will embrace -- and abandon-- almost each one of the 20 Derby contenders in the next 2 weeks.

    I guess Storm Clown feels that Pletcher has to win a Derby one of these years. I am pretty certain this is not the year.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff Wrote:
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> Richiebee,
>
> I thought he was game too but you could have timed
> the race with a sun dial. The track was not all
> that slow. The other two turn race race was also
> very slow compared to the rest of the dirt
> races.Maybe the two turn races were more
> compromised by the surface.
>
> Friend Chuck is stuck on Keyed Entry in the derby.
> Shocking to me how a guy with a decent opinion
> could like a rather one dimensional runner in this
> of all derbies.Just heard P.Val gets the mount on
> KE.He can make a billy goat dangerous.
>
> Tough trip on Annika, I think she broke a little
> sharp and ran up into that bad spot by herself.I
> know wide Mikey, he\'s ok, maybe fell too many
> times.He was a fearless and ferocious rider when
> he first came to NY.
>
> Mike
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 04/23/06 10:32AM by
> miff.

Miff, you have to admit with PVal up, Keyed Entry could be invincible.

[Michael D.]

bellsbendboy Wrote:
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> Chuck
>
>  Keyed Entry has less chance to win the derby than
> Sinister Minister.  He is by Honour and Glory, who
> is by Relaunch.  If they do the right thing and
> scratch, stablemate Sunriver can win it!  bbb


bbb,

Two of the fastest three year olds ever, Point Given and GZ, had the Relaunch blood. Brother Derek, Point Determined, and SNS, three of the top contenders this year, also have it back there. Agree that Honor and Glory is a bit on the speedy side as a sire, but I think KE has as much stamina in his pedigree as War Emblem or Smarty Jones. I think the track condition will play a major role in how well KE runs. I think he needs a glib surface to run his best, and he might get it. If I see the speed types tiring on the undercard however, I will probably have to pass.

[miff]

Chuck,

I think P. Val is top three on the planet and maybe best with equal stock. Again, why didn\'t Baffy put him on Sin Min. Must be some west coast guy who knows the story.

[bellsbendboy]

Prado said the horse cannot get nine furlongs!

[Silver Charm]

Agreed, and I do not see this horse as a Go for Gin type even if the track comes up wet.

Too many others who will be right up his you-know-what early.

[Michael D.]

bbb,

with prado up, the horse can\'t get 8.5f (too short) or 9f (too long). he might have won both the gotham and the wood if velazquez was up....

i can\'t blame anybody for tossing KE, but he is 39-1 at the mom. do you want to be short this guy at 39-1 if the track comes up lightning quick, and pval gets the perfect two/three wide stalking trip?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff Wrote:
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> Chuck,
>
> I think P. Val is top three on the planet and
> maybe best with equal stock. Again, why didn\'t
> Baffy put him on Sin Min. Must be some west coast
> guy who knows the story.

Miff, to P Dub\'s consternation, I\'d have to say because \"You dance with who brung ya.\" Baffert had great success at Churchill with Espy. I\'d do the exact same thing. I believe a bad break in the Belmont cost War Emblem the triple crown.

I think Keyed Entery will give a good account of himself, but for the record
I believe that Sweetnorthernsaint is the real deal. I believe that he is NOT a front end speed crazy horse. In fact, I believe he is highly tractable. He does have a fluid, effortless stride which gives the illusion of pure speed, but that is the deception of his energy efficient way of moving. Barring a horrible break, I have no doubt that this horse will appear to be rating a kind 5 lengths off the burners. He won\'t be rating, he will be galloping near the lead. I don\'t think any horse can close with him. Come the top of the stretch, I think he\'ll be right there with the best part of his race still in front of him.

There are some very good horses in this race including Bob and John, Lawyer Ron and Brother Derek. But there is only one horse that could rain on SNS\'s parade per my reckoning. Keyed Entry has earned his berth, but he\'s not the horse to fear.

[wipitoga]

does anyone know the name and author of the daily comic strip which I beleive was in the old brooklyn eagle in the 1950s and 1960\'s.
Thanks

[miff]

Chuck,

I did see SNSaint race twice. I do not think that he will be as effective in the stalk position. He reminds me of the pit bull type that is tough to get by when he\'s on the lead.I know he was wide in the Gotham but I was not impressed with that effort.He had an easy trip in the ILL Derby but was very explosive late. No doubt a real nice horse.

In this derby, barring gate trouble,Sin Min and Sharp Humor have that \"quickness\" which makes me believe that none of the others can beat them from the gate. Bro Derek,KE, SNS and L Ron are no slouchs early either.Very tough for me to visualize where this group will be on the first turn which may decide the race.

Lots of people are talking about stalkers in this derby but with 20 in there, it may be like hitting lotto to get that perfect trip.It will be interesting to see how some who have dominated, on or near the front end, react when they are in behind getting dirt kicked in their face.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff Wrote:
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> Chuck,
>
> I did see SNSaint race twice. I do not think that
> he will be as effective in the stalk position. He
> reminds me of the pit bull type that is tough to
> get by when he\'s on the lead.I know he was wide in
> the Gotham but I was not impressed with that
> effort.He had an easy trip in the ILL Derby but
> was very explosive late. No doubt a real nice
> horse.
>
> In this derby, barring gate trouble,Sin Min and
> Sharp Humor have that \"quickness\" which makes me
> believe that none of the others can beat them from
> the gate. Bro Derek,KE, SNS and L Ron are no
> slouchs early either.Very tough for me to
> visualize where this group will be on the first
> turn which may decide the race.
>
> Lots of people are talking about stalkers in this
> derby but with 20 in there, it may be like hitting
> lotto to get that perfect trip.It will be
> interesting to see how some who have dominated, on
> or near the front end, react when they are in
> behind getting dirt kicked in their face.

Opinions are what make this game interesting.

Theres been a lot of talk about the slow pace of the Illinois Derby. Here\'s my take on it. The two turn DRF variant was 27, and SNS ran a three year best of 96. To me these are much more revealing numbers than Beyers.

Cause to Believe was use to running on 08 variants in Northern California. Even when doing so he\'d carve out 47 halfs raceday. In the Illinois Derby he ran a 48 and change on that 27 variant. So you tell me, Was Hollendorfer reasonable when he stated post race the slow pace prevented his horse from finishing strongly? If something did impact Cause to Believe and prevent him from his late move, what was it?

SNS broke from the 10 hole in both the Gotham and Illinois Derby. In the latter, he broke so fluidly he was in the lead a jump outta the gate. He relaxed, let Mister Triester move to the lead inside of him and ran an in hand race. FYI, did you see who Mister Triester entertained on the lead in his first race after breaking maiden? Its not like Mister Triester is a slow animal. Unless you believe Hollendorfers laments.

The Gotham deserves some review, but that can wait for another day.

CtC

[Silver Charm]

The Clown has been pretty good in the past on this type of pick. Difference now is its two WEEKS before the race not two MINUTES.

I actually agree with him and do not see being five lengths of the pace as being in the stalking position. If Sinister Minister runs off, he may find himself ten off.

Which wouldn\'t be such a bad thing either.

Do agree that Trips in the Derby can sometimes resemble NASCAR or even worse a Chevy Chase family vacation movie.

[miff]

Chuck,

I do not envisage any \"relaxing\" for the up close runners in this derby. Too much early gas, imo.We\'ll see.

Mike