WEEKEND BEYERS

[high roller]

HAWTHORNE DERBY 109

SANTA DERBY  108

WOOD MEM   93


does anyone believe that the race was that slow? can\'t wait for jerrys numbers

[spook_express]

Yes, I do!  Especially the last 1/16th.  Jazil wasn\'t closing, the front runners were waving for public transport to the wire.

Spook

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

spook_express Wrote:
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> Yes, I do!  Especially the last 1/16th.  Jazil
> wasn\'t closing, the front runners were waving for
> public transport to the wire.
>
> Spook


Why would anyone believe that Beyer would get this Wood figure correct after last years Wood figure? He\'s clearly got severe difficulty with factoring a unique race upon a card. In this case by unique I mean the only race at two turns that day.

Additionally, its quite possible the Aqueduct strip was slowing down. Either that or Too Much Bling may have run a Negative 7. The Wood was a substantially faster race than Beyer has factored. And if Pletcher doesn\'t give Keyed Entry a chance in the Derby off that race he\'s missing the bigger picture too.

[miff]

Chuck,

The race being the only two turn race is a comparison problem. On the whole day the pace was very fast and subsequent races were just slightly slower(raw time) than expected, but at one turn.

I have seen three fig making sources making the Wood slow. Maybe the very fast pace caused the pedestrian last 3/8ths leading to the slow final raw time(wind, rain, et al).May be a tough race to figure for JB,but no one but you have called it \"fast\"

I promise to ask Pletcher to enter KE for you in the derby.

[Silver Charm]

>The race being the only two turn race is a comparison problem

Isn\'t that standard on Woody Day, just to give you numbers guys fits.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> The race being the only two turn race is a
> comparison problem. On the whole day the pace was
> very fast and subsequent races were just slightly
> slower(raw time) than expected, but at one turn.
>
> I have seen three fig making sources making the
> Wood slow. Maybe the very fast pace caused the
> pedestrian last 3/8ths leading to the slow final
> raw time(wind, rain, et al).May be a tough race to
> figure for JB,but no one but you have called it
> \"fast\"
>
> I promise to ask Pletcher to enter KE for you in
> the derby.

Pletcher will do the right thing:

\"Meanwhile, Pletcher said that KEYED ENTRY (Honour and Glory), who finished third in Saturday\'s Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct, would arrive at Churchill Downs on April 17 -- although the colt\'s status for the Derby is unclear at this point.

\"At the end of the day, I don\'t think he ran that bad a race,\" Pletcher said. \"Maybe with some adjustments -- slowing him down a little bit, a different surface -- who knows? I think he at least ran well enough, and has run well enough every start in his life, that we should at least be here to see how he trains over the racetrack and see how he\'s doing, and not make a decision, prematurely, one way or another until after we Kentucky medicate him.\"\":

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/full_edition.cgi#

The Wood was a very good race. Jazil didn\'t suddenly become a 1:52 horse with a clean trip after running a 1.49 and change. Same of Bob & John. Theres liable to be some value in these horses being repeatedly underestimated.

[beyerguy]

CTC said:

\"The Wood was a very good race. Jazil didn\'t suddenly become a 1:52 horse with a clean trip after running a 1.49 and change. Same of Bob & John. Theres liable to be some value in these horses being repeatedly underestimated. \"

I always just laugh in dismay when on a sophisticated figure making board, someone starts quoting raw times as evidence of anything.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

beyerguy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CTC said:
>
> \"The Wood was a very good race. Jazil didn\'t
> suddenly become a 1:52 horse with a clean trip
> after running a 1.49 and change. Same of Bob &
> John. Theres liable to be some value in these
> horses being repeatedly underestimated. \"
>
> I always just laugh in dismay when on a
> sophisticated figure making board, someone starts
> quoting raw times as evidence of anything.


Well then believe the Great Guru, Andrew Baloney Beyer

p.s. FYI, Baloney refigured his Sham Stakes and after the Derby will have to refigure it again, along with the Wood. On the other hand, others have said all along that Bob was underestimated and have not changed their position. When they laugh, its not with em.

[miff]

Chuck,

You are missing the point. They may run one-two in the derby BUT they ran slow in the Wood.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> You are missing the point. They may run one-two in
> the derby BUT they ran slow in the Wood.

I\'m anxious to hear what TGraph thinks. If they say slow, I\'ll be stunned but will reevaluate.

Bobphilo appears to have taken a leave. In regard to his contention that Steve Haskin agrees Gulfstream was fair Florida Derby Day, here is the following from Steve Haskin\'s column:

\"Florida Derby was a huge step forward. He got bumped pretty good in traffic early, was wide the entire race, racing in eighth over a track that was favoring speed, and was forced five-wide after a :23 3/5 third quarter.\"

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/index.asp

The above in no way suggests Steve Haskin has a firm grasp upon whats going on this year. His omission of Saint from his Derby Dozen after the Gotham was unconscionable.

[STB]

I asked Dan Illman of the DRF (he\'s started a blog on their site) whether the Beyer needed to be looked at again. His reply:

\"Dan I: After some tweaking, the Bob and John Wood Memorial Beyer came in at a 99.  You make an interesting point regarding the Wood being the only 2-turn race of the day, and that may have made it a bit difficult to come up with a Beyer.  Then again, a 99 seems pretty fair.  Bob and John received a 97 when 2 1/2 lengths behind A.P Warrior in the San Felipe, and A P Warrior earned a 100 when almost 5 behind Brother Derek in the SA Derby.  So, yes, the Beyer needed to be revisited, and 99 sounds pretty fair.\"