TGJB-Barbaro in deep stretch

[bobphilo]

NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
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> Bob
>
> Whatever Bob,
>
> I will revisit your analysis and put my own
> perspective on your spin.

Tony,

Feel free to evaluate my analysis and put your spin on my perspective. LOL
By the way, it might interest you to know that Steve Klein analyzed the card and found a slight speed bias but not enough to have effected the results. And he didn\'t even take into account the abilities of the horses involved.

Bob

[bobphilo]

Bally Ache,

Thanks for your support on the speed bias issue.
I do believe that the track speed can change during the course of the day, making it necessary to split the variant. Check out out Jerry\'s presentation on changing track speed on this site. The position is strongly supported by solid scientific evedence. Let me know what you think after reading the presentation. Judging from your understanding of the speed bias issue, I suspect you will have an open mind on variant splitting as well. Let me know what you think.

Good luck,
Bob

 

[Michael D.]

Haskin from the Bloodhorse: \"And this was a notoriously speed-favoring track, which certainly had to help the top two.\"

[Bally Ache]

I\'m having trouble accessing it (because I\'m an idiot when it comes to computers), and I have to go out now, so I\'ll try again later.

But a point of clariification - I concede that variants can change but it\'s a rare day when the DRF doesn\'t have split variants.  That\'s what I don\'t understand.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Quite honestly Bob I sent a link for the Mike Watchmaker (and I\'m not a big Watchmaker fan). article and not Steve Klein for what it\'s worth. It was in refference to 5 week preps before the Derby.

NC Tony

[NoCarolinaTony]

Thanks Michael D for your support!!

Going to Kee any this year?

NC Tony

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

bobphilo Wrote:
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> Tony,
>
> I analyzed the card in detail ad here's the race
> by race break-down of the dirt races.
> 1st)  The early leader faded to 3rd despite being
> the even-money favorite.

Don\'t forget that the top three went 1-2-3 around the track, but for positional changes and a 30-1 with speed was dead game for second beaten a length

>
> 2nd) Early leader faded to 9th. Horse running 2
> and 3 early finished 1 and 2,   but they were the
> 2 favorites

Don\'t forget the 3rd place horse at 37-1 that was only two lengths off on the early calls and found a way to make the Tri Pay. But yes, the 1st and 2nd horses race pace races as well. The second place horse from outside and 3 wide.

>
> 3rd) Early leader faded to 10th. Winner closed
> from 5th to 3rd to 1st.

Lets not forget the second place pace horse at 25-1 beaten a mere length from the 12 hole.
>
> 4th) Winner went wire to wire but was odds-on
> favorite. 2nd and 3rd place finishers closed from
> 4th and 8th early though they were 8-1 and 19-1
> shots respectively.
>

To say the second place horse \"Closed\" is a monumental stretch. He was never further than a length and a fraction back. Did you do this analyis on lengths and posts and wide or simply change in positions?....lol

Notice you neglected the 5th 1-2-3 around the track. Granted the chalk checked in first and second. Solid Chalk it was.

I\"m sorry but i\'m bored with this endeavor, other than to say theres a lot more to figuring a track than looking at positional changes, but this one is easy. Gulfstream is a speed track. It was a speed track before \"renovation\" and its a wackier speed track now. It favored horses on the front end last year. High Limit, Bellamy Road and others. Its favoring horses on the front again this year, including Vinnie Barbarino. But this was high school. Its college time and if you think Barbarino has the stuff to graduate, step on up to the window and don\'t be shy.

[tmon]

You Chuckles you do know that it\'s ok to disagree with somebody without being insulting.

>Chuckles_the_Clown2 stated.
>I\"m sorry but i\'m bored with this endeavor, other than to say theres a lot more to figuring a track than looking at positional changes, but this one is easy. Gulfstream is a speed track. It was a speed track before \"renovation\" and its a wackier speed track now. It favored horses on the front end last year. High Limit, Bellamy Road and others. Its favoring horses on the front again this year, including Vinnie Barbarino. But this was high school. Its college time and if you think Barbarino has the stuff to graduate, step on up to the window and don\'t be shy.

[bobphilo]

Oh, OK. Since I\'m not a subscriber and couldn\'t see the article, I thought it was more likely to be the one on the GP speed bias since that was what you were refering to in the post.

Bob

[NoCarolinaTony]

bobphilo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Tony,
>
> I analyzed the card in detail ad here's the race
> by race break-down of the dirt races.
> 1st)  The early leader faded to 3rd despite being
> the even-money favorite.
>
> 2nd) Early leader faded to 9th. Horse running 2
> and 3 early finished 1 and 2,   but they were the
> 2 favorites
>
> 3rd) Early leader faded to 10th. Winner closed
> from 5th to 3rd to 1st.
>
> 4th) Winner went wire to wire but was odds-on
> favorite. 2nd and 3rd place finishers closed from
> 4th and 8th early though they were 8-1 and 19-1
> shots respectively.
>
> 6th) Early leader faded to 3rd. 1st and 2nd place
> finishers were 2nd and 3rd early but were also 2
> favorites.
>
> 7th) Early leader faded to 5th (last). Winner was
> 2nd early but was odds-on favorite.
>
> 9th) Leader faded to 6th. Winner was 2nd early but
> the 2nd place horse closed from 6th. The 3rd
> placed horse closed from 7th to 5th to 3rd despite
> very wide trip.
>
> 11th) Bandini went wire to wire but was odds-on.
> The 2nd and 3rd placed horses closed from 4th and
> 6th at 37-1 and 38-1 respectively.
>
> 12th) Best 2 horses in race ran 1-2 (see my
> pre-race analysis) and happened to do it from the
> front. 3rd place horse closed from 8th to 5th to
> 3rd but couldn't catch better horses on lead.
>
> Ergo, no evidence of speed bias. Q.E.D.
>
> Sorry you had to work so hard searching for a
> non-existent bias when you could have easily had
> the Florida Derby Exacta cold by seeing the track
> was playing fair.
>
> Quite frankly I'm puzzled how otherwise rational
> handicappers can believe that the track surface
> can magically recognize the hooves of front
> runners and give them more spring than those of
> closers. Yes, there is such a thing as a live rail
> bias and on those days, horses with speed are more
> likely to beat the others to it, but that's not
> what most people mean by a speed bias.
>
> Bob
>
>
Dear Bob,

I chose Race 11 to re watch and also re read the DRF/Equibase Charts.

11th) Bandini went wire to wire but was odds-on.
> The 2nd and 3rd placed horses closed from 4th and
> 6th at 37-1 and 38-1 respectively.

Now here\'s what really happened: The second place horse sat right behind Bandini the entire race. Oconnell the 4 horse broke with the leaders and just sat off them the whole race and right next to the 1. Who\'s Crying Now (#7) went out of his element and tried to force the pace as he usually is a deep closer. He changed his running stle because No One had closed a lick up till that point. Contante another Deep closer here is the DRF Comment: Taken back early, moved up racing down the back stretch, made a run three wide to loom a threat and faltered down the stretch. Now  a Horse you may want to watch next time out is Noble Causeway as he did make up lots of ground deep stretch but was too far out of it.

Now my point has always been that no horse could close down the stretch on that day.  If a certified deep closer like Contante couldn\'t do it, something was not playing right that day. It played to early speed the entire day.While it may have been more of an inside bias vs speed I\'m not as qualified as you. I am certainly not as qualified as Jerry.

My last point on the issue.

 
Oh- I also see that Classhandicapper takes your point of view on your board.

Enough Said!!

NC Tony

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I didn\'t insult anyone. I\'m calling the horse Barbarino. Have to say after going over the track bias analysis I felt I was in Kotter\'s classroom though.

Bottom line is I don\'t like his pattern. I don\'t see another forward move off that stretch run. I don\'t like his breeding. I don\'t like his pace style for the Derby. I don\'t like the bias he\'s caught to win and I suspect he\'s gonna ouch, if he\'s not ouching already. They need to run him in Turf miles.

[davidrex]

must not be a very active blog what with him spending so much time over here.
are you unemployed like c.h.? hope you do as well w/ponies and pool like him.
honest to g-d,I went back in time on this list to see if your presence just happened to co-inside w/c.h.s\' departure.
 

[davidrex]

ctmc:
could you be a little more specific!!
some of folks might find you abrasive,but no one can say you r sitting on a fence w/barbarino

[bobphilo]

Gee Chuckles, I\'m so heart-broken to be boring you.

My point was that there are a number of reasons that GP was not speed favoring that day. And yes, improvement of position is one definition of closing. Being able to catch and pass a horse or horses in front of you means the so-called speed bias didn\'t exactly hurt the horse in question. That happened several times that day.
This whole dogma about speed favoring tracks is more of a self-fulfilling prophecy than an accurate description of the racing surface. If the jocks believe it, most will try to be forwardly placed early. That means that horses racing off the pace are back there because they are slow rather than being rated. Slow horses tend to lose races, further perpetuating the myth that it has something to do with the track surface. There is just no explanation that makes sense that a track surface somehow reacts differently to the hooves of frontrunners and closers. Think about it.
I may or not bet Barbaro in the Derby but I'm certainly not going to downgrade his FL. Derby performance on the basis of some dubious speed bias.

Bob

[bobphilo]

NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Oh- I also see that Classhandicapper takes your
> point of view on your board.
>
> Enough Said!!
>
> NC Tony

Tony,

Now you\'re stooping to half-truths. CH disagrees with me on the issue of speed biased tracks - he believes they are an important factor to him and I consider them mostly a myth. You have a strange definition of agreement. The only thing he agrees with me on is that it was not a significant factor on Fl Derby Day, as does Steve Klein. The next time you use my board to misquote anyone, you\'re banned.

Bob