TGJB-Barbaro in deep stretch

[Michael D.]

Miff,

barbaro\'s dam is by carson city, but she ran well going long on turf. she got the stamina from her dam, who likely got it from her sire, kings bishop. KB was a 8-9f horse, but had excellent stamina sources on the bottom of his pedigree. not many carson city pass on the long winded gene, but barbaro\'s dam got it, so he might have it.... if he flattens out in the derby, i think it will be because he simply isn\'t good enough, not because of pedigree.
....

Miff,

Stich has a piece on drf.com regarding the w/e stakes races. It\'s good, take a look.

[miff]

Thanks Mike,

I\'m a big sprint and wet track fan of Carson City. I remember the dam on the grass going long. It\'s no wonder that Matz said that he thought Barbaro might be a better grass horse.

Lauren Stitch breeding person from DRF wrote that she believes Barbaro\'s breeding, top and bottom, going deep into the families, will be no problem at 10f.

[bobphilo]

BBB,

I actually don\'t put too much strength in the gallop out. My point was that it was good enough for me to not take too seriously the assertations that he was so spent that he couldn\'t even keep a straight path in the stretch. I think this whole business of him allegedly bearing is being overrblown, especially since Jerry said that his man at the track so no reason to even include the BO in his comment line.
The only time I considered the gallop out was when a poster here, whose name I forget but to whom I\'m very grateful, said that that he was at Oaklawn for one of Lawyer Ron\'s races and he finished so full of run it took the jock the full length of the backstretch to pull him up. I liked him in his next race anyway but that clinched it for me helped me cash a nice win bet on him.

Good luck to you as well,
Bob

[brokerstip]

Masters:

Could be a Euro year....Darren Clarke or Harrington

[bobphilo]

Tony,

If debunking some widely believed but ill-founded \"sacred cows\" makes me a contrarian, I\'m guilty as charged.
I will, in any case analyse the days card in more detail. I always can make time to bust a few myths if that\'s where the evidence takes me. I\'ve actually been looking at the issue of biased tracks for some time and would be glad to dicuss it in more detail. But that\'s a topic for another day.

Bob

[NoCarolinaTony]

Bob,

other than race 1 or 2 - if you were not 1-2-3 at the quater pole you were not closing period. Nothing Deep closed. And if you find one, let us all know because that horse has a shot on a fair track next time out.

NC Tony

[NoCarolinaTony]

Bob,

When it comes to racing - it is my opinion that nothing is sacred.You are always puzzled by results. well not always but you come accross it frequently.  What we need to be is adaptable and very quick at it. I was really planning to bet on  rehoboth for the Fl Derby but choice 2 was Sharp Humor. As the day unfolded I had to drop my sacred cow as the key play and went to Sharp Humor. I still played Rehoboth in tri\'s  & supers and exacta\'s wasting money. I should have just keyed Sharp Humor with the obvious candidates.

I have no sacred cows.

What I am saying is that Saturday was a speed favoring track. Don\'t call it a bias  if you will, but you have to accept the facts.1-2-3 or nowhere on Saturday.

NC Tony

[bobphilo]

Tony,

Before you go blaming the track, you might want to check to see if the horses that didn\'t close figured to close in the first place. Now let me go back to watching \"House\"

Bob

[NoCarolinaTony]

Bob,

I did and those that figured to close couldn\'t and of course they didn\'t.

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=73291

How did you like where he found the tick?

NC Tony

[bobphilo]

Tony,

You are assumming I have a subscription to all the DRF srticles. Another unwarrented assumption. You are probably refering to the article by Steve \"Power of Early Speed\" Klein. No matter, I have the charts for the day and will check them out when I get the chance.

Bob

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Bob,
>
> I did and those that figured to close couldn\'t and
> of course they didn\'t.
>
>
>
> How did you like where he found the tick?
>
> NC Tony

Tony, it would have taken Silky Sullivan at his very best to make up ground on that track. Many of the legitimate Closing horses were compromised by trouble as well.

Barbaro is a decent horse, but in the Derby he\'s a very tall order at very short odds and may not hit the board. There were a lot on that Gulfstream card that won or nearly won that are toss plays on different surfaces.

If I owned Barbaro, I\'d change plans quickly  They should send him for some of the shorter European grass races. I will take him head to head vs. First Samurai and Bluegrass Cat though.

Did TGraph publish a figure for the Florida Derby? I\'m still guessing in about the 0-1 range for the winner and Sunriver running as fast if not faster.

[bobphilo]

Tony,

I analyzed the card in detail ad here's the race by race break-down of the dirt races.
1st)  The early leader faded to 3rd despite being the even-money favorite.

2nd) Early leader faded to 9th. Horse running 2 and 3 early finished 1 and 2,   but they were the 2 favorites

3rd) Early leader faded to 10th. Winner closed from 5th to 3rd to 1st.

4th) Winner went wire to wire but was odds-on favorite. 2nd and 3rd place finishers closed from 4th and 8th early though they were 8-1 and 19-1 shots respectively.

6th) Early leader faded to 3rd. 1st and 2nd place finishers were 2nd and 3rd early but were also 2 favorites.

7th) Early leader faded to 5th (last). Winner was 2nd early but was odds-on favorite.

9th) Leader faded to 6th. Winner was 2nd early but the 2nd place horse closed from 6th. The 3rd placed horse closed from 7th to 5th to 3rd despite very wide trip.

11th) Bandini went wire to wire but was odds-on. The 2nd and 3rd placed horses closed from 4th and 6th at 37-1 and 38-1 respectively.

12th) Best 2 horses in race ran 1-2 (see my pre-race analysis) and happened to do it from the front. 3rd place horse closed from 8th to 5th to 3rd but couldn't catch better horses on lead.

Ergo, no evidence of speed bias. Q.E.D.

Sorry you had to work so hard searching for a non-existent bias when you could have easily had the Florida Derby Exacta cold by seeing the track was playing fair.

Quite frankly I'm puzzled how otherwise rational handicappers can believe that the track surface can magically recognize the hooves of front runners and give them more spring than those of closers. Yes, there is such a thing as a live rail bias and on those days, horses with speed are more likely to beat the others to it, but that's not what most people mean by a speed bias.

Bob

[NoCarolinaTony]

Quite honestly I would Run Barbaro in the Derby then put him in the 5Million Dollar Series on Grass which included 2 Million dollar purses at Colonial and The Secretariate at Arlington and the last one is BC Turf Classic. If you sweep those 4 races you get a supplement of 5Million. Plus it wouldn;t hurt his breeding value either.

NC Tony

[NoCarolinaTony]

Bob

Whatever Bob,

I will revisit your analysis and put my own perspective on your spin.



NC Tony

[Bally Ache]

Bobphilo

I have always felt that track biases were overdone.  I\'d be interested in your opinion of split variants.  Except under very unusual cirumstances, I can\'t see any justification for it.

I once e-mailed Steven Crist about this.  He said it was due to possible wind conditions and uneven track maintenence.  I don\'t accept this explanation (except possibly under EXTREME wind conditons).

 I think the real reason is,as time goes on, a $10,000 animal, e.g., is something inferior to what it used to be (because dollars get closer to confetti all the time).  And the further horses run, the more apparent this becomes.

What do you think?