TGJB-Barbaro in deep stretch

[tmon]

So he if ran a 0 his pattern would be off pair top not the worst pattern. Especially since his off was a 8 length win ridden out.

[marcus]

I\'m just not in love with it . It is difficult to separate 2 yo from 3 yo numbers , pattern and seasons . The  5 career races are part of his current and present campaign .

He did run a top to end his 2 yo year  and get over a mile and around 2 turns as a 2 yo to his credit and the trainers credit but with just only 2 races and that\'s got to be pushing a horse along fast .

The 3 yo debut number in my view was an effort and I would liked to have seen a 2 or 3 pt bounce - a real bounce . Then the 3 and change on slop and w/ all the off track breeding , ran what many refer to as a pair was then his best number to date  .

I\'m guessing he ran a top saturday in the range of 1+ to 3 pts  , so he established a level of performance with his 1st 5 races and assumedly has moved forward off of that , now he bounces next .

I hope Vito\'s right about this and also ,  he should be using TG numbers to get the very best view when taking patterns into consideration  . I know Jerry is right about this stuff more than anyone around that I know of . Derby winner pattern profiles seem to be in a transitory phase these past several years ...  


Incidently , talking about patterns and on an unrelated note , at HAW-8- tuesday I\'m liking the number #3 horse Bewitching Miss to win , she\'s a little slow going in but off her pattern I like her chances to improve now at 8-1  .

[P-Dub]

Bob,
There are lots of trainers that \"know their horses\". What does that have to do with preparing one for the Ky Derby??  Two totally different things

If you want to bet this horse in 5 weeks, I hope you convince a lot of your friends too.  He beat a moderate group of horses while pressing the pace over a speed favoring strip. A Derby prep off of an 8 week layoff, then 5 weeks leading up to the Derby?? This horse will not have the conditioning to go 1 1/4 miles against 19 other horses.

Matz has done a nice job with him, don\'t get me wrong. But this looks like your classic big hype, low odds, up the track favorite to me.

P-Dub

[bobphilo]

P-Dub,

The ability of a trainer to know what schedule gets the best perfrormance out his horse is very relavent.
The so-called \"speed-favoring\" track at GP that day was really more of an ability favoring track where the best horses happened to be horses that like to run near the pace that day won as expected. Look at my pre-race analysis of the FD based on a fair track and you will see the horses ran as expected.
Before the Holy Bull people were saying Barbaro was only a turf horse. Before the Florida Derby people were saying he would not be as effective on a fast dirt track if another horse \"looked him in the eye\". After his impressive victory in the FD, despite his horible post, where he battled and defeated a game Sharp Humor in the stretch people started dowplaying his race becase he may have bore out and an alleged speed bias.
Now the latest knock is his \"lack of conditioning\". He may not win the Derby but if not, one of the horses most likely to beat him, Discreet Cat, is another one that those that cannot properly interpret the statistcs of past results, would be even more likely to throw out. I\'ve already had this discussion here about how the 3+ prep minmum theory for the Derby just doesn\'t hold water in a proper statistcal analysis. Check the archives.
I too love it when people misintepret the data and throw out the likely winners for the wrong reasons.

Bob      

[bobphilo]

P-Dub,

I didn\'t mean to imply that you are one of those that just wants to knock Barbaro no matter what he does. We just have a different interpretation on how good the FL. Derby win was and Matz\'s training methods for the Derby. I respect your opnion though I disagree with it. You are not a petty nit-picker on the horse.

Bob

[bellsbendboy]

I cannot fathom this pedigree getting ten furlongs. He is a very nice athelete and now a grade one winner, but not in my Derby superfecta. bbb

[jbelfior]

No. SUNRIVER may turn out to be a good horse later on, but I don\'t see him as a Derby threat right now.


I think the Santa Anita Derby holds the key this year.




Good Luck,
Joe B.

[miff]

The horse has done everything asked, so far and ran a race on Saturday that only one or two other 3yr olds have shown the ability to run, so far.Why so many knocks? How many horses have won from post 10 this meet at 9f? Anyone know? I don\'t.

I think Brother Derek has many more questions to answer, run without bute, ship, win out of California, get bounced around,get hooked by a real runner and a short price to boot. He looks better this year but got nothing in his one start at Belmont in the BC juv.

Regarding the training method by MATZ, you can go back just about every year and the \"experts\" knock the trainers methods. Remember Smarty Jones working 59 Flat in between races and ahem,an \"expert\" here admonished Servis for doing too much and the horse promply jogged.

It seems Matz knows this horse and is trying to do the right thing.We\'ll see.

[richiebee]

Derby Droppings:

BARBARO was good, SHARP HUMOR was game, but they basically separated themselves from the field and staged a two horse speed duel which will not serve as any kind of preparation for a 20 horse cavalry charge. Nothing like a 10 horse Grade 1 where 8 of the entrants don\'t fire at all.

Is TODD PLETCHER this years NICK ZITO? Will he send out 5 runners in the Derby? Will he have the same success as NZ did? Are any of NZ\'s colts Derby worthy this year?

Like BOB BAFFERT or not, he has been a major participant in the Derby/Triple Crown and his opinion has some weight when it comes to 3Y0s. BB has been heaping praise on BRO DEREK throughout the winter, and ships his best prospect, BOB AND JOHN, 3000 miles into the Wood, which in itself comes up pretty tough, to avoid BRO.

If BRO DEREK wins the Santa Anita Derby, as expected, he will be favored and not BARBARO. If BRO DEREK (trainer is in a wheelchair), LAWYER RON (owner drowned in swimming pool) and BARBARO (trainer Matz was Olympian, was heroic survivor in plane crash) all are in Derby, NBC TV will likely have so much human interest coverage of these stories that there will be very little time to analyze the race and the runners. As usual, the network will aim to please the casual racing fan with its coverage, disappointing and ignoring the hard core racing fan.

If BRO DEREK and LAWYER RON dominate their final preps, and 20 show up for the Derby, the favorite could be 9/2 or 5/1.

A great and important weekend of racing, maybe even enough to get me out of the living room and out to Ozone Park on Saturday.

Also this weekend, another spring classic, The Masters. Am looking for a very competitive tournament, as many top players (a distracted Tiger, an inconsistent Sergio, Ernie Els and Vijay Singh not at the top of their games so far in 06) are not playing at their best. IMO the Lefty, Mickelson (who seems to gain 5 lbs every winter) will bounce off a dominant front running win last week in a minor prep. The choice in this corner-- the steady S.African, Retief Goosen.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Bob,

It was speed favoring. You are a classic contrarian.

Bob please show me where any horse closed from the quater pole on in? I watched the entire card replays last night and took notes. Let me see what you came up with. Believe me I try not to bet the way everyone else does myself, but you need to get a grip of reality.

IT WAS A SPEED FAVORING STRIP PERIOD!

NC Tony

[big18741]

The Holy Bull was a tough race on Barbaro.The comment in the chart was all out-lasted.He didn\'t work again for eighteen days(an easy breeze)and didn\'t race again for eight weeks.Matz took a couple of weeks to decide on bypassing the FOY.

The Florida Derby was another tough race on Barbaro(long drive according to the chart)and it\'s likely his TG sheet will indicate he drifted out.

In the case of Barbaro maybe 5 weeks off isn\'t too much time leading up to the Derby.Maybe its not enough.

[Ill-bred]

bellsbendboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I cannot fathom this pedigree getting ten
> furlongs. He is a very nice athelete and now a
> grade one winner, but not in my Derby superfecta.
> bbb

Barbaro is by Dynaformer, one of the best stamina stallions in the country. Dynaformer was a winner at 10 and 12 furlongs himself.

Barbaro\'s dam La Ville Rouge (Carson City) won at 9 nine furlongs and closed to finish third in the 11-furlong Long Island Handicap (G2) on the dirt and also closed for third in the Sheepshead Bay Handicap (G2) at 11 furlongs on the turf.

Distance breeding is one of Barbaro\'s strengths!

[big18741]

Lefty needs to wear a sports bra.

[davidrex]

great reading here...short and to the point(like me)
seriously,this article really kept  my interest.

[TGJB]

Big-- we had our trackman look at the headon. He thought Barbaro leaned in on the other horse, then drifted very slightly near the wire, but not enough to get a BO.