TGJB-Barbaro in deep stretch

[big18741]

Drf charts say Barbaro wore down his rival in a long drive.I watched the head on and he was drifting out probably a couple of paths in deep stretch,but no mention of it in the charts.

Was it enough to show up as a bo on his sheet and does it raise any red flags?

[TGJB]

Big-- didn\'t see it, we\'ll take a look. There is one very good (top professional) TG handicapper who won\'t won\'t bet any horse the time after a BI or BO.

[Ill-bred]

I watched the head-on after the race and thought Barbaro looked fine. I don\'t recall any drifting out to speak of.

[jbelfior]

I thought he drifted out noticeably. Also looked like he took a bad step inside the 1/16th pole.

Give me the horses that close well over that GP highway as opposed to the ones that stay on the pace.

Anyone remember any KY Derby winners that hit the board in the Florida Derby while running on or near the lead???....I\'ll give you 3 KY Derby winners that closed @ GP.....MONARCHOS,UNBRIDLED,PLESANT COLONY and one that just missed (CAPTAIN BODGIT). Even INVISIBLE INK turned a nice closing effort in the FL Derby into a bomb exacta.

That\'s not to say I would back any horse who closed in the Florida Derby in KY. I\'m simply saying that I would downplay any horse who wins it or runs well in it while with the pace. Just ponder this list:

HARLAN\"S HOLIDAY, HIGH FLY, HAL\'s HOPE, VICAR, HIGH YIELD, UNBRIDLED\'S SONG, HOLY BULL, TECHNOLOGY, FLY SO FREE.




Good Luck,
Joe B.  

[big18741]

I watched the Gulfstream feed at the track and he wasn\'t maintaining a straight path.Went in a tiny bit at first,and then started going out a couple of paths at the end which I thought was significant.

Taped the USA show and even Stevens mentioned he was a little erratic late,but that he didn\'t think it was a big deal.USA showed a very brief clip of the head on for a couple of jumps.

[Ill-bred]

Hmmmm, you guys are pickier than me then. I thought he looked strong.

[JimP]

jbelfior: Given your theory of closers vs on-the-pace horses in past Florida Derbies, what conclusions did you draw about this year\'s running? I assume you\'re taking a negative view on Barbaro and Sharp Humor. Any catch your eye from a postive view?  

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Ill-bred Wrote:
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> Hmmmm, you guys are pickier than me then. I
> thought he looked strong.

Interesting observation on Barbaro. Didn\'t pick that up during the race, but after some review tend to agree he was experiencing a little \"lateness\" in the stretch. The grinding kinda got a little hard there. Maybe you can excuse it on the first in 8 weeks. The problem is he comes back in 5 weeks now.

Dosage is worthless, but good stout breeding is important. Barbaro qualifies easily on dosage. No problems at all. He\'s DI of 1.81 with a CD of .53

On the Dam side from La Ville Rouge he\'s DI of 2.45 with CD of .82 which is still within the worthless parameters. However, his mare is by Carson City and her Broodmare sire is King\'s Bishop. Tracing it back to the four generational sires on Barbaro\'s mare side is where I find the suspicions. Those four sires are Raise a Native, Blushing Groom, Round Table and Neartic.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/barbaro4

With the exception of Round Table they are \"milers\" and everything from Barbaro\'s mare side flows from them, granting the influence of the females is a factor too.

Did that track help carry him? He\'s undoubtedly talented. Is he talented enough? I\'ll decide after the other preps, but beating that unblemished record is gonna provide a nice return.

CtC

[Michael D.]

brisnet gave him a 104. the internal ratings were 89, 101, 103. final 1/8 in a shade under :13. i think this guy can go on for another 1/8, it\'s just a matter of class. i\'m on the fence, the TG # will be the deciding factor.

[marcus]

Is that to say never ever ever in any circumstance , how about boxed in exotics  ?  I\'m going into the KEE online contest and if I win - It\'s Katz\'s for everyone  !

[Silver Charm]

One race in thirteen weeks is not enough to win the Derby. He will not be conditioned enough or tough enough to win.

Having said that the light campaign and ability to grass will make him one of the more interesting three year olds, assuming he runs a little more than once every 90 days after the Derby.

He will not be getting any of my money and hopefully plenty of other peoples........

[marcus]

I\'m hoping he gets so much press and everyone bet\'s him  . His Pattern really isn\'t that good at all either - Irregardless of how the race might shape up exactly , I don\'t see how TG sheets players could like him to win , but I am relatively new around here ...

[Silver Charm]

Interesting what you say regarding the Pattern. Vito over on the Rags Board said something similar and he appears to be one of the more loyal and intelligent customers of theirs.

Could you please elaborate a little more.

Also I don\'t fault the Trainer for the spacing, he knows his horse and the horse is 5 for 5. Hey tell the Press he is another Smarty Jones.

[bobphilo]

Silver Charm Wrote:
------------------------------------------------------->
> Also I don\'t fault the Trainer for the spacing, he
> knows his horse and the horse is 5 for 5. Hey tell
> the Press he is another Smarty Jones.

SC,

I agree 100%. Matz has said this is the schedule he has followed all along with the horse and he\'s staying with it. I respect Matz as a horseman and believe he knows whats best for his horse. I\'ll go with that over any theory of how many preps are needed for the Derby.

Bob  

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Interesting what you say regarding the Pattern.
> Vito over on the Rags Board said something similar
> and he appears to be one of the more loyal and
> intelligent customers of theirs.
>
> Could you please elaborate a little more.
>
> Also I don\'t fault the Trainer for the spacing, he
> knows his horse and the horse is 5 for 5. Hey tell
> the Press he is another Smarty Jones.

Still waiting to hear what Barbaro ran in the Florida Derby, but I\'m guessing about a Zero. Thats a ways from Smarty Jones, who was moving like a machine in the Rebel. Barbaro was moving like a horse doing the best he could do to get up with a half length victory on a speed favoring trip. Granted he had the Gate blast, but the more I look at it the more it looks like he was handed a gift.

I still think when betting a Derby favorite you want an overpowing horse, not one thats been eeking out victories. He\'s the favorite. He should be winning like a strong favorite. Has he been? In the next dance the quality of the competition goes way up. Has this guy shown enough to let your money ride on him in that regard?

I think theres a few others that look a little better for the distance. Lets wait and see what the final preps say. If they stumble, maybe Barbaro deserves to be favored. For the most part it was an honest gig.