Jerry - Saw This on Rags board

[bobphilo]

Jerry, I was looking at the Rags board and I noticed this response by Robespierre to a question of making figures for Polytrack.

\"The process is the same, but like some other tracks there are peculiarities in how the variants move from day to day and also within particular days.  This may be due to the general nature of polytrack, but is probably more a result of the maintenance approach that is being followed at TP.\"

Do my eyes decieve or is is this an acknowledgement that or is this a departure from the \"no change in variant within the same day\" philosophy? It can\'t be due to the freeze or thaw exemption since Poly doesn\'t freeze.

Also a final note to Chuckles on Barbaro\'s ability to rate and/or handle the expected pace in the FL. Derby. He doesn\'t impress me as a need to lead type but has been more of a presser. He pressed the pace from a bit closer than Flashy Bull in the Holy Bull and still outfinished him. Of course the change in post positions may cause the tables to turn. OK, I\'ll stop posting on the race now before we all get sick of it.

Bob

[TGJB]

Bob-- I actually did see it when I was checking the boards from Dubai, and decided to let it go, since their board is basically deserted. But NOOOO... Paul and George already have egged me on to respond, and now you.

So I\'ll just ask this-- Len, how do you know when the track changes speed, or how much it does?


On the crack-induced Rehoboth figure, let me make this point in such a way that those that don\'t understand figure making can get it:

Rehoboth got beat 1 1/2 lengths last time out in the Fountain of Youth. If you believe Ragozin, all the horse had to do was pair his previous allowance win figure, and he would have won the GII by seven (7) lengths, at 66-1.

[Michael D.]

Jerry,

How\'s your FOY # holding up so far?

[TGJB]

Don\'t get that one, Michael. As far as I know (from Thoroughbred Times) Ragozin and I had the FOY the same, and Beyer did as well. If you are referring to Rehoboth, the big difference was the previous figure.

[marcus]

He looked good off that buried figure and pair coming into the race yesterday and had he not receieved the ! designation in his last ,  probably doesn\'t get much play in the Fla Derby  . I wasn\'t surprised myself to read the \" crack \" comment posted recently , it certainly would explain alot of things going on at Rags . Perhaps they might try coupling that with a testoterone inhibitor to help balance their priorities  ...  
   

[Michael D.]

Jerry,

You guys were very high on two horses coming out of the FOY. One ran 7th at 4-1, and the other ran last at 9-1. While these two efforts certainly don\'t make the FOY fig right or wrong, they should give you some reason for review. No?

Not criticizing the handicapping Jerry. I was wrong myself. Just looking for an edge next time these horses run.

[TGJB]

Michael-- the FOY was about as solid as they come, by memory, and that all 3 of us had it the same makes it pretty unlikely we all blew it exactly the same way. Those two horses ran poorly, it happens. What I was really wrong about was the first two, from a handicapping point of view.

My day was a lot like yours. I bet 12 races, hit just the Little Thunder race (we tried to buy him right after the claiming win, Capuano trains for Parra, they wouldn\'t sell), but hit it hard enough to only lose a negligible amount for the day (boxed the first 3 in exactas and tris). Very frustrating day, close in lots of races, and I\'m getting real sick of being second on Pletcher\'s flank turning for home and NEVER going past.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jerry,
>
> You guys were very high on two horses coming out
> of the FOY. One ran 7th at 4-1, and the other ran
> last at 9-1. While these two efforts certainly
> don\'t make the FOY fig right or wrong, they should
> give you some reason for review. No?
>
> Not criticizing the handicapping Jerry. I was
> wrong myself. Just looking for an edge next time
> these horses run.

I don\'t see the mystery.

On figures, it was an extremely competitive race regardless of whose figures you used. On Beyer for instance the horses ranged with last out tops from 93-97. TGraph had it close as well with numberous horses in the 2-3.3 range.

Flashy Bull and Rehobeth, both coming off tops with some bounce probability were further compromised by trouble and the strip.

Additionally, the top 3 finishers raised their game substantially. 3YO\'s are liable to do that this time of year. Maybe I\'m wrong about that, but thats my view until I hear from the figure producers.

[miff]

Mark said of Rehoboth:

\"He looked good off that buried figure and pair coming into the race yesterday and had he not receieved the ! designation in his last , probably doesn\'t get much play in the Fla Derby\"


Mark,

You mean that his pair on TG affected his final odds? The whole country was betting(many thousands of people) no?

Mike

[Michael D.]

thanks Jerry .....



 

[marcus]

No , not at all . For betting purpose\'s , it\'s the buried number you want to see in that situation and not necesarily the pair . When the horse pairs in early 3 yo season and has alot of races under his belt , he might not bounce due to maturation . Your taking the horse for value , it wasn\'t a great betting race , so you do your best with it ...
I had Doc Cheney to move up significantly off a potentially explosive pattern   and boxed w/ Rehoboth + Sharp Humor , it was stupid  but not as bad as taking the eventual Fla Derby  winner yesterday becouse it was a huge underlay and I didn\'t like him off his numbers or pattern .

[Josephus]

I also thought that the FLA Derby Day was a good day, if you passed a bunch of races.... I didn\'t play more than 6 races on the card....LITTLE THUNDER was a must use + I cashed the exacta.  The last race was also a   must use, I was all over WISHINGITWAS... the $211 tri was sweet. Great job by TG showing the value.