Drugs/Two derby Preps/DW Lukas/ParaneckStables

bobphilo · March 27, 2006, 05:14:57 PM

David,

I agree, which is why I introduced it as a new thread. It just seemed odd that people are continuing to complain that nobody is posting about handicapping rigth after a new thread on handicapping has been posted and is right in front of their eyes.
I do appreciate you\'re noticing it and an looking forward to your comments.

Bob

NoCarolinaTony · March 27, 2006, 06:31:29 PM

Bob,

That wasn\'t my point at all. Our posts just crossed. Its an aspect of handicapping that merits its own thread.Your post speaks to a specific point of handicapping that has nothing to do with reading figs. The data on the sheets is very informative and gives insight into the breeding of the firster. So to answer your specific question, I don\'t want Jerry to stop including the info in the sheets as its supplements the figures or proxies when no figures exist at all.

Breeding science will never become an exact science. Breeding alone will not create a winner of a horse. Bad training,injuries can all compromise the breeding to some extent.

Each major breeding farm has a geneologiest studing crossing patterns/nicking patterns etc. Adena Springs/ Lanes End/ Phipps/ Coolmore/ Judmonte/ Claiborne all have a guy like the one you wrote about. They\'ve had decades to play/perfect dna information. How far away are we from someone cloning horses?

NC Tony

NoCarolinaTony · March 27, 2006, 06:49:42 PM

Bob,

I made my original point for what it was worth. The point you brought up is quite deep and not for everyone. Lets face it, many players pass on MDN Races and first time starters.

Quite frankly, if you meant me as some people, our points crossed.

NC Tony

bobphilo · March 27, 2006, 06:57:46 PM

Tony,

Sorry about the sarcastic tone. I didn\'t realize our posts had crossed.
Ironically I don\'t use breeding much in my own handicapping because breeding is not an excat science, but apparently these new findings seem to have some predictive value. Handicapping and traning are far from exact sciences as well. Of course, poor training can undo the best genes in the world but, by the same token, the best training in the world can\'t change bad genes if the potential just isn\'t there. It\'s always a combination of both.
Of course, performance is the ultimate test and the figures are always my main source if a horse has raced, but with an unraced or untried horse at the distance, knowing the mare makes an additional contribution is useful to know. From a buyer\'s or breeder\'s point of view, locating the exact genes would be invaluable.

Bob

marcus · March 27, 2006, 08:21:53 PM

I\'ve found the Breeding info helpfull in all handicapping situations . I\'d like to see the Breeding info data expanded on though I don\'t know exactly how , there is real potential for finding an edge and value ...

bobphilo · March 27, 2006, 08:51:39 PM

David,

What you say about the value of comparing views on the ROTW is very true. That\'s why I always urge all the members in my group to make picks and even add an analysis if they wish, both pre and post race. You\'d be surprised at what a large percentage of the people contribute to this and how useful it is getting varying points of view. Actually, I don\'t think you would be surprised, as you know the value of open intelligent discussion. Given the increase in international racing and foreign shippers, I\'ve had a number of requests for ways to evaluate foreign figures and I am currently working on a table for converting Timeform figures to accurate equivalent TG, Beyer and Brisnet figures.

Bob

Wrongly · March 28, 2006, 07:43:55 AM

Bob

Dr. Roman has a chart similar to the one you mentioned, thought you might have an interest.

http://www.chef-de-race.com/pfs/comparative_speed_figs.htm

shanahan · March 28, 2006, 07:51:12 AM

thank you for this. I have been looking for similar for some time.

bobphilo · March 28, 2006, 07:53:22 AM

Thanks Wrongly. I actually already have that and have been using it in my conversions, with some slight modifications. It\'s pretty useful. I appreciate you passing it along, all the same.

Bob

bobphilo · March 28, 2006, 07:56:59 AM

I\'m currently working on a table that converts TG figures as well as the others listed. I\'ll let you know when it\'s done if you\'d like to see it.

Bob

Wrongly · March 28, 2006, 10:44:55 AM

Bob

Thanks, would love to see it when your done.

shanahan · March 28, 2006, 12:15:43 PM

Wrongly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Bob
>
> Thanks, would love to see it when your done.

I , too, am most interested in this Bob.

bobphilo · March 28, 2006, 01:35:38 PM

Wrongly and Shanahan,
Will gladly pass along my findings when I\'m done.

TGAB,
Thanks for the Dubai data. This additional info is just what I need to for my conversions study.

Bob

NoCarolinaTony · March 28, 2006, 04:57:06 PM

Bob,

Since you are already comitted, would like to see the data too. My email is attached here or in your yahoo groups.

NC Tony

bobphilo · March 28, 2006, 05:19:57 PM

NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Bob,
>
> Since you are already comitted, would like to see
> the data too. My email is attached here or in your
> yahoo groups.
>
> NC Tony

A lot of people have said that that I should be commited. LOL.

I\'m working on it now and you\'l be one of the first to know.
I\'ll also list a lot of related data in my Yahoo group files section as well, including a standardized rating system that any type figure can be converted to. Remember the t scores and Z scores from your stat days?