ROTW: HESANOLDSALT...

[JohnTChance]

HESANOLDSALT goes into the Sam F. Davis at Tampa with my favorite ThoroGraph pattern for young horses: the \"pair-up and off race,\" which often yields a new top. 10... 4... 4... 6... (then, with time) a 3-ish tomorrow? Because he gets weight from Pletcher\'s colt, because he\'s Bejarano\'s choice, because he figures to sit a good stalking trip from an inside post, and because Zito is enthusiastic about him, HESANOLDSALT seems a logical play here. Let\'s see how he runs. Morning line 12-1 means he\'ll be 8-5.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

This is an interesting race. Haven\'t looked at it on Tfigures yet, just some first impression observations for now:

Seaside Retreat - Looks to have been here for weeks working. Gotta like that, even if you suspect its real nice for a Canadian trainer to be wintering in Florida.

Blazing Rate - First back in months on that freaky wet track. He gets a pass on that one. This horse and In Summation developed quickly. If he can make a small move forward here what would that get him?

Pegasus by Storm - He sure looks like Storm Surge to me. Which may get him a piece here if hes lucky.

R Loyal Man - What can you say? He\'s trying to stretch that speed. If he stretches it a little, can anyone beat him? Theres always the bounce play. That last one was a big effort.

Hesanoldsalt - Wonderful longer race breeding, but slow races. Not sure Berajarano had any choice to make. Zito will be happy if he finishes 3rd or 4th and thats the problem.

Bluegrass Cat - Pletcher says he won\'t be cranked for this. He\'s a headstrong Storm Cat by all appearances. Between R Loyal Man, Little Cliff and Laptop Computer it will be a significant effort if he can win a pace duel and the race while still pointing for more later. Additionally, can\'t say hes even beat a good horse yet. Steps up vs better today.

Sweet Grass Creek - hmmmmm

Laptop Computer - Not sure he\'s can do it. But do believe he makes it real tough on Bluegrass Cat.

Deputy Glitters -

Electrify - That was a big race he put up vs. R Loyal Man. That counts for something. If R Loyal Man bounces, and this horse isn\'t headstrong, can he snag it?

Little Cliff - Zito thinks hes working well. Berajanao thought Hesandoldsalt was the way to go. This one isn\'t a full to The Cliff\'s Edge who took to the strip but for wide.

Right Flanker -

[richiebee]

Agree with the Chuckler that Hesanoldsalt is very well bred for the longer tests to come, certainly much better bred for distance and dirt than last years Live Oak/ Zito runner High Fly (Atticus)

Broad Brush, sire of Hesanoldsalt, won the Wood, the Suburban, the Santa Anita Hcp and 9 other stakes in his 27 race career. Among his offspring are Concern, winner of the BC Classic and 3YO Filly Champion Farda Amiga.

A friend of mine who worked at the Maryland tracks told me that Broad Brush was quite high strung, even after strenuous training, and that trainer Dick Small found that Broad Brush calmed down after being loaded into a 2 horse trailer. Apparently it was not uncommon to see trainer Small driving Broad Brush around the stable area (and sometimes outside the stable gates) after morning training to calm BB down. If this story is true (the friend who related it to me passed away 10 years ago) thats true horsemanship.

[Dana666]

He is a really good-looking colt. His last win was very impressive, going 1 1/8 in January is impressive for any 3 year old, and he really rated well, took dirt in his face and exploded when asked. His sheet pattern is great, too. He could really move forward today with the cutback, and he\'ll need to improve to be thought of as a serious derby horse. He sure looks the part so far.

Pletcher\'s horse, Bluegrass Cat (6) is no slouch, I\'m sure, and he\'ll be tough to go past; hopefully, there\'ll be some other speed and maybe he doesn\'t have to run tremendously at this stage in the season, while Zito\'s colt really does need a strong effort.

As far as the others, I think Sweet Grass Creek (7) has a great line and Joan Scott\'s horses all do well at Tampa. I think Zito\'s other runner Little Cliff (11) and perhaps Laptop Computer ( may have a say in the outcome, though I think the latter looks like a sprinter, one-turn type to me and with other challengers on the front, I wouldn\'t see him holding up- he\'s a little guy and Bailey had him in the perfect spot in last, and he readily gave way.

My play would be 5 over 6,7 (strong exactas, tri\'s, supers) with the 8,11 possibly thrown into supers and other extoics. I think I\'ll either sngle the 5 in the pick four or use 5,6,7 if I spread.

Good luck to all!

[xichibanx]

Good ROTW this week at lovely Tampa Bay Downs.

I\'m taking R Loyal Man in here.  I don\'t see the bounce in here that some do.  I wouldn\'t be surprised if it happened.  I don\'t like Bluegrass Cat in here at all.

The 9th at Tampa is a tremendous turf race from a betting persepective.  I\'m going with the #2 My Lordship who hopefully will stay at his ML of 9/2.  

The most interesting race of the day in my opinion is the third race at Santa Anita.    The debut of the $8 Million dollar Mr. Sekiguchi.  Will he be a superstar or a bust?  I really don\'t see him losing in his spot but will the road to the derby begin in this race...?

xichibanx

[Silver Charm]

X, the most interesting race of the Day is the Race of the Week.

Remember when Gulfstream used to put on Cards like this. Great outdoor sunshine to frolic in. Places to sit outside and handicap, places to sit and watch the races live. One Mile and One Sixteenth Derby Preps. This race should be Graded, so should the grass race you eluded to.

If I was Tampa Track Mgmt I might try a \"Bet the Company\" strategy next year and jack up the Purses and see how many horsemen bail on this albatross called Gulstream Park.  They don\'t have Calder to deal with so they could run a meet for as long as they like.

Gulfstream and Stronach are destined to become the next, Hialeah and Brunetti.

I will post a selection later. This is a good card.

[spa]

If Blazing Rate\'s last was an anomaly, there\'s too much to like ........and 20/1. Time to pull off the rubber band!

[bobphilo]

I like a 3 horse Exacta box here.

Bluegrass Cat - His last 2 stakes wins were impressive and has top recent figure

Blazing Rate - Throw out his last (a poor start in the slop off a lay-off) and he\'s as good or better than anyone else here. Great odds too.

R Loyal Man - Great last race to top string of impressive wins. I don\'t assume a bounce unless a horse has a history of bouncing. IMO A young 3YO is just as likely to pair a big effort. Distance only question.

Bob

[Silver Charm]

Straight Exacta of Salt over the Cat.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Tough Race to figure. Some horses run on that track, some don\'t, which is why I favored R Loyal Man. Did some bounce?....not even sure of that.

Clearly Blazing Rate is off or didn\'t take to the track. Hesanoldsalt ran even, but kinda figured to.

We\'ll see where they go from here, however you have to have gained a certain amount of respect for Bluegrass Cat. His mare by A.p.Indy also got the hard knocking gelding that finished second to Super Frolic in the Hawthorne Gold Cup.

[bobphilo]

Another Exacta spoiled by some unlikely longshot spliting my top choices. Why horseplayers turn gray. Deputy Glitters was a big question on distance but maybe his tiring in his previous mile race was due to the lay-off. He had good figures in his previous sprints but there where too many others that looked better. Hard to say with R Loyal Man I think it had to do as much with the distance as the bounce, though he was bearing out badly in the stretch. Looks like like Blazing Rate\'s last flop was a sign that he\'s badly off form though I thought he had legit excuses, but hindsight is 20-20. Bluegrass looked pretty good considering he lost ground on both turns. The figure will tell a lot more about how well he really ran.

Bob  

[twoshoes]

Bluegrass Cat (122) (2-1) – ran a big one to win the Nashua, and not nearly as well to win the Remsen. He clearly is a good horse, but we think he's a little overrated—top 3yos usually don't bounce that much late in their 2yo year. He'll definitely be over bet here—he would need to get back to his top to have any shot at all, and even that might not be good enough. Contender, but an underlay.


I read this the same way. He could certainly win but he was grossly overbet for his real chances in my opinion. But one thing is for certain with me and Pletcher, when I hold an opinion on his horses such as this one and I am sure the public is holding them at poor value - they consistently perform like trained seals.

[flushedstraight]

for certain twoshoes, you\'re not the only one. Although one would expect Pletcher horses to take cash at the windows, especially when they look good on paper and are getting the hype (ie. selected by public handicappers), there are times when they are bet much heavier than anticipated, look like underlays, and then perform like king kong, indicating some funny business. I wouldn\'t say Bluegrass Cat is an example of this because he was not facing any real accomplished types in here and was supposed to win, but here are three examples off the top of my head from the recent past in high profile races that were:


2005 Bluegrass - Bandini;
coming off a loss in the Fla derby and relatively unaccomplished; looked like the 4th choice at maybe around 6-1 or higher; this was considered at the time by many the toughest derby prep last year with the likes of High Limit, Sun King, and that Lukas piece shipping in off that jiggy jig in SoCal; for @#$% sakes the only one I can recall that liked him on this board was CH if that means anything

Result; opened up at 2-1, drifted up to 7-2, ran a figure so outrageously fast that Jerry rechecked it a hundred times, made a token appearance at CD a few weeks later, and hasn\'t been heard from since


2005 Carter - Forest Danger;
yes he was coming off a fast alw race in Fla but he wasn\'t a proven commodity in stakes and this was a race won the previous three years by the likes of multiple G1 winners Pico Central, Congaree, & Affirmed Success; now he had to face very speedy proven stakes winners from top barns such as Medalist and Don Six, and he was starting outside of them on the Aqu main which at least in my opinion favors inside speed; he was certainly a contender here off his last but had some obvious question marks, plus regular jock and crowd fave Johnny V was out of state (riding Bandini?)

Result; opened up at 4-5!, pretty much stayed there, had a bit of trouble at the start! and spotted a few to the quick ones, and then came wide on the turn and went by them like they were nothings while earning a huge fig, came back for the Forego a few months later with a pathetic effort, and hasn\'t been heard from since


2002 Whitney - Left Bank;
arguably one of the fastest sprinters ever, but never had success in previous stakes attempts routing; this race didn\'t exactly come up empty either that year with the likes of Lido Palace the defending champ and a mult G1 winner, Street Cry the Dubai champ who was coming off a smashing Stephen Foster, and Macho Uno the overhyped but lightly raced and highly regarded BC juve champ with Pat Day; Leading into the race, Left Bank was given a chance to upset if he can steal away on the lead against his stalking foes but at a late hour The Chief entered some speedy type to end that possibility

Result; was 9-2 with less than 1 minute to post and was suddenly hit to 7-2 as the gate opened, sat 2nd behind a very fast pace as expected and then proceeded to make a move blowing away the field while matching the track record; died shorty after that


In all fairness, I cherry picked these three incidents to advocate a theory and sure it\'s not as clear cut as something like 58 perimeter columns and 25 core columns of a 47 story steel framed building all failing at the same split second for no apparent reason, but I only toss Pletcher when he\'s an \"expected underlay\" like Bluegrass Cat where I lost anyway but still believe it was the right thing to do that pays off in the long run. The alarm goes off though when he\'s clearly in a TOUGH spot AND bet like he\'s not, and this shouldn\'t imply that when he\'s NOT bet more than expected that he\'s a toss. Hey, if it wasn\'t confusing it wouldn\'t be as effective for them, whoever they are, and as fun for us.

[sighthound]

I was at Keeneland for Bandini, he looked a monster in the paddock.

[flushedstraight]

and my ex-wife looked great at our wedding... maybe I should have put her in a detention barn