Sat Haw Analysis-6th race.

[Mall]

The race was an 8.5f Ill-bred stakes which included 3 horses which had approx the same last sprint no, a 9. Two had what I think most sheet players would consider solid lines, but were short odds. The 3rd, Rolling Sea, had run an 18-26-9 & was coming out of a mcl win, but was 28-1. I expected this horse to have been overlooked as a likely \"bounce\" candidate when I looked this morning, & was surprised to see that the analyst based his play on the possibilty that RS could pair the 9 in his 1st route. The question is why.    

[asfufh]

Whoever it was, put him or her in charge of the ROTW!!

[marcus]

Chi-Town\'s a funny circut , I caught hell from a \"sportswriter\" one time for not likng a 3-5 shot w / a badly deteriorated trouble line who wound up  
distanced in the race , I felt it was glaringly apparent to me that the horse ( whose name I can no longer remember ) was about even money to break down during the running of the race .
With out knowing the out come of the race in question , it looks like a Nickle Race to me and I suppose one could rationally go a couple differant ways with . Which horse do you feel gets the nod ? Tupper Lake ?  

[Mall]

I doped & bet on the race, so I knew the outcome when I posted. Tupper Lake was in & lost the 6th on Sun at low odds. My initial inquiry was re the 6th on Sat, an understandable mix-up on your part, but that is not the reason for this post. I also looked at the Haw Sun card & am curious enough about your reference to Sun 6th being a \"Nickle Race\" to ask the question which is sometimes used as a punchline: What do it mean?  

[TGnick]

In situations like this--first-time route, first-time turf, etc.--I rely heavily on the sire profile, and to a lesser extent on the trainer profile (it depends on the trainer.)  For Rolling Sea\'s sire Sefapiano, you\'ll notice his TGI improves slightly between \"Less than 1M\" and \"1M and over\"--not the case for Lovely Love and Lampoon.  Also, note that trainer Hazelton is 40% to get a pair up or better after a new top.  I used Lovely Love (same trainer) in the play for that reason.  Since Rolling Sea was likely to go off at longer odds, she was the pick.  
Regarding bounces:  It\'s been my experience that a young horse that wakes up suddenly after a couple of races is more likely to maintain that wake-up number as a level.  In this particular race, the best any horse had run at a mile or more was a 13, so even a bouncing 4 points would give Rolling Sea a shot here.  
Finally, the inevitable footnote:  I didn\'t bet the race.  I put in my bets early in the day and I\'m working on the next day\'s analyses when the races are being run.  You correctly saw the horse would be overlooked.  Prior to the race, I believed one would be lucky to get between 3 and 4 to 1--what Lovely Love went off at.  Such is racing.  

[Mall]

Sorry to hear you didn\'t cash as a result of having to put in your plays before knowing the odds. Even with that disadvantage, my day after looks at your analysis lead me to believe that it won\'t take long to remedy the problem. In any event, thanks much for your interesting response.

[marcus]

Yeah , I\'m planning to visit to an optomitrist very soon - can you recommend any ?  Sorry about that & good question , I\'ve heard the expression used in Betting Palor\'s in NYC and as it was explained to me  , A Nickle Race is a race that one could easily pass on for any number of reasons . For example ; no value , too many unknowns , poor track conditions , small field , don\'t like it etc ...