A different Breeders Cup Topic

>the exclusion of the real problem: steroids [see that recent article by Bergstein]. The 8-hour detention barn does nothing to stop a Dutrower that\'s been steroided during a layoff - many days or weeks before the race - and has been growing into his enhanced new levels in bullet work after bullet work. <

That has been my position also.

It\'s one thing to move a horse up 5 days after you get it. It\'s another thing to do it after it has been on a farm for two months getting better care and who knows what else.

That doesn\'t mean steroids are the answer, but something along those lines seems logical because the stakes caliber move up trainers have not been slowed down by the detention barn.

[TGJB]

John-- I had a problem with Cerin that caused me to pull her out of his barn on short notice (less than 24 hours), and I didn\'t know another trainer to use in California. Someone involved with the horse knew Mitchell, so we did that. She did well for him, winning a stake, then I had a problem with him as well. She ended up with Tim Yakteem, winning a stake there too.

FYI, the filly (Shezsospiritual) sells as hip 763 at Keeneland Thursday, in foal to Distorted Humor.

[miff]

Don\'t lose sight! It goes way beyond shakes.The detention barn thing  has lots of track Public Relations in it.I am willing to bet that if and when they catch the usual suspects, it aint gonna be milkshakes.

Mike

[NoCarolinaTony]

My Calulation says its .0000309% likely to occur. Over one in a Million.

[TGJB]

Thanks, Tony. If you get a chance, send me an e-mail showing me how the hell to do that.

Steve-- hope you saw that.

[NoCarolinaTony]

I\'ve heard its EPO its EPO......You know the stuff that distance runners, cyclists,  and all Olympic Athletes are tested for. Blood Doping.

NC Tony

[miff]

Tony,

The latest thing I heard is, as you said, Blood Dope/EPO and super pain med. Now it is being said that the chemists are frequently changing components, ever so slightly,in order to further the \"distance\" between the dopers and the testers.Big advantage, DOPERS!, still.

Mike

[jimbo66]

Jerry,

What Caradoc posted was the chance of something happening 12 times in a row, with a 45% chance of success rate, which is .000069 or .0069%.

What NC Tony posted was the chance of something happening 13 times in a row, with a 45% chance of sucess rate, which is .0000310 or .0031%.

What you are asking is what is the chance of something happening 12 out of 13 times, given each chance has a 45% success rate.  

The formula is much nastier than simply .45 to the 12th or 13th power.  

The actual answer is .00049 or about .05%.  It still is not very likely, but significantly more likely than it happening 12 out of 12 or 13 out of 13.

I can give you a link to the formula if you are interested.

http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section3/eda366i.htm

It is the first formula on the page, called binomial distribution.

[bobphilo]

Wrongly,

You couldn\'t have put it more rightly. All the suveilance in the world will do no good if real penalties aren\'t handed down to the cheaters. When Ben Johnson tested positive for steroids after winning the Olympics 100 meters, he was disgraced and banned for life. Personally I think that a trainer who juices his horses is even worse. the Olympics is not a big betting event (except perhaps in the London bookshops where they bet anything) so not as meny bettors were defrauded. Plus Johnson drugged himself rather than some poor unconsenting animal. But what happens when trainers are caught? They get 60 day suspensions. Big deal. Jeff Mullins gets caught and adds insult to injury by saying bettors are all \"sick idiots\" anyway, and gets 60 days surveilance. That\'s like taking a convicted criminal and saying, \"where not going to punish you, just watch you so you don\'t mug anybody for a couple of months\". Maybe we \"sick idiots\" that provide the funding for purses should stop patronizing the establishments that nurture these cheats. Maybe, since the racing accociations won\'t deal with these crooks, we should get the real law, that we pay taxes to protect us, to go after these criminals for fraud as well as animal abuse.

Bob

[Caradoc]

Jerry, after reviewing this post of yours I\'m not sure either Tony or me calculated this correctly.  If we are to derive the right probability (and Tony, correct me if I'm wrong), we need to determine each individual horse\'s probability of running an off race first rather than aggregating them into a group.  The result is a very different probability if the 33 "off" races were run just by Hollywood Story, Island Fashion and one or two others rather than being more or less evenly distributed among all entrants, no?

[TGJB]

Caradoc-- yes, that was my point about 12 of those off races coming from only 2 of the fillies. It means that realistically the chance of THOSE 12 out of 13 doing it is much lower (and goes to a point I have made at other times about averages being misleading). But I\'ll go with the 2,000-1, it\'ll do.

Jimbo-- nasty is right, that\'s why I gave it to you guys. Bookmakers have to be doing something like that for two teams playing a series-- same principle, right?

[Kasept]

nonight Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 1. It should be pointed out that the trainer of
> PLEASANT HOME  uses the same veterinarian as Todd
> Pletcher. PLEASANT HOME\'s instant \"move up\" was
> the eye-popper of the afternoon. Add him to your
> list.
>

JTC..

I don\'t think Shug is using Allday. At Saratoga, someone who would know told me the relationship ended as soon as Shug received Allday\'s first invoice. Am curious if you\'ve heard differently... definitively.

Steve

[bobphilo]

nonight Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 1. It should be pointed out that the trainer of
> PLEASANT HOME  uses the same veterinarian as Todd
> Pletcher. PLEASANT HOME\'s instant \"move up\" was
> the eye-popper of the afternoon. Add him to your
> list.
>
Nonight,
I\'m about as suspicious and critical of these \"move up\" trainers as anybody, but I would hesitate to lump Shug in with Dutrow and Pletcher on the basis of one race. It\'s to his credit that he dumped Allday. He\'s a real old school type who trains for the Phipps\' who race what they breed and breed what they race and is known for taking real good care of his horses. He\'s just as concerned with developing good breeding stock as with winning races and has never had a horse test positive, as far as I know. If anything he\'s been criticized for not being in step with the \"modern\" game. Of course, he may have had a change of heart so might be worth watching.

Bob

[jimbo66]

Yes,

Bookmakers do that for series prices but the other application is for parlay cards.  9 out of 10, 14 out of 15, etc.etc.

2000 to 1 is pretty rare, but it isn\'t a million to one.....

[xichibanx]

No Problem.

Still the Jeff Mullins impact brings up the point.  Can Biancone maintain what Jeff Mullins has done with Wild Fit (Not that Wild Fit is Go For Wand or anything)?  I would say no but next time she runs, wherever that end up happening that question has to be answered. That question was the first thing that popped into my mind when I saw that the Irish bought her.

P.S. Silver Charm if you read this.  Can you check your private messages for this forum as I left you a message for you and Brooklyn Steve that you need to know that you may find interesting.  

xichibanx