Belmont Turf Condition

[marc666]

The turf condition is just posted as FIRM.

I would have wagered on it being Good to Soft, so I\'m rather surprised.
With our record rainfall the last month and cool temperatures, that Firm rating surprizes me.

This may have implications for a few runners: Azamour reportedly likes it firm, I wasn\'t going to use him, but now I may have to throw him in the mix; the British bookies have him as the favorite. I also think Shakespeare\'s stock goes up some on firm going, while perhaps Bago and Shirocco may not have an advantage, they like it softer.

As far as the mile goes, I was considering Whipper (interestingly, the British bookies have \"Leroid\" as an overwhelming favorite, and they don\'t seem too high on the Euro\'s there). I\'m not sure how much the rest are affected in the mile. I also think Singletary is coming into the race in great form.

In the Filly and Mare Turf, the firm rating warms my heart because I believe Ouija Board prefers firm going, and now I clearly see her as the most logical and best bet of the day -- she\'s just too classy for those girls. I know Jerry sees her as a big bet against on the analysis, but her numbers have nothing to do with her class, and she\'s returned better than ever; the others are simply not in her league.

Good luck to all, and I hope everyone gets home safely, including jocks, horses, and bettors!

[congaree1]

Well said! Somebody who believes that class does mean something. Numers are only a part of the game.I don\'t like her to much this year, but if she wins it will be because of her class factor.


Con

\"her numbers have nothing to do with her class, and she\'s returned better than ever; the others are simply not in her league. \"

I tend to agree with the first and last part of this sentence, but I can\'t see how you could think she returned better than ever. She was hurt earlier in the year and in her last race she didn\'t run against a single legitimate stakes horse. I would make her a big favorite in here if I knew she was 100%, but I think when injuries and proper preparation are questions marks, you have to try to beat a favorite like that.  

On the numbers, I don\'t think you can come up with really accurate appraisals of ability based on speed when the horses in Europe only run for 2F-3F at the end. Perhaps when they start timing the last 1/4 and 3/8 and giving us the fractions etc...

[marc666]

She won last year on class alone, and she HATED that off-going at Lone Star -- the race wrecked her for months, but that\'s my definition of class, they run through the pain, they\'re genuine, no matter what, no excuses. They\'re brave, they pass horses, they have an undefined \"something\" that separates them from the pack -- you can usually see it early, but sometimes it comes with age. There\'s no number or symbol as of yet denoting that in sheets. There are only a few special horses like that (seems like fewer and fewer as the years roll on) but maybe we\'ll see some today.

[marc666]

Now, they just changed the listing on the NYRA website to good! That was fast.

\"High Roller\" has the real info!

Anyway, I\'ll stick to my original comments, and if Ouija Board loses, it won\'t be because of \"Good\" instead of \"Firm\" going. Still, no excuses.

[congaree1]

Let me name a couple of horse that i think won races on class alone.

Cigar

Tisnow

Favorite Trick

Serenas Song

Azeri

Con

[marc666]

Your points are very well taken.
I\'m saying now she is 100%.
She had one physical problem after another since last year\'s cup -- splints, quarter crack, stress fracture of the cannon bone; they gave her 3 and 1/2 months off this summer to heal, and she returned great. That last race was a workout for all practical purposes, and it impressed me to no end; I can\'t blame you for seeking a price. That\'s what you do today! But I also just don\'t believe her owners would have brought her here if she was not in top shape, and with grass racing, less is always more -- horses off layoffs and easily raced are always better in grass races -- the last thing you want is a hard race on grass before the breeder\'s cup. A lot of people don\'t understand that -- the best thing is a fresh, rested animal on grass, so there you go. With all that said, Wonder Again will probably win and pay 15.00 and all the T-G seminar devotees will get rich!

If she wins, I won\'t be shocked. Good Luck today.