Breeders Cup Preview

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Well, I dont want to dominate this board, but I do want to discuss B.C. Stuff in a figure related way. It\'s that time of year. Horse racing has two seasons. The Triple Crown and the B.C.

But as a concession to not being domineering I\'ve promised to only discuss two B.C. events, The Mile and Classic. Now, isn\'t anyone else the least bit inquisitive regarding figuring out who the true contenders are in those races or is everyone\'s mind already made up? Which is not to imply I have the answer. I don\'t, which is why I want to talk about them.

I want to go back to the Pacific Classic again and discuss it in Beyer terms, not because Beyer is the standard, but as a foil for comparison. In that race you had a blanket finish with Borrego, Perfect Drift, Choctaw Nation and Lava Man with Super Frolic a short 4 lengths back with a very good effort. Borrego was obviously moving best late in that race and despite the wide, Beyer scored him a 113. Beyer gave Flower Alley a 110 for the Travers with a much better trip. Essentially, Beyer had Borrego 1+ lengths faster covering MORE ground.

Now there was a six pound weight swing in Flower Alley\'s favor, which essentially made the race a tossup on Beyers, but for lengths lost or gained on path, though you had to suspect Borrego would appreciate the sweeping final turn even if he didn\'t save additional ground off the prior.

Borrego was clearly the bet on Beyer, but heres the penultimate piece of the puzzle at least between these two. If you truly believed that Borrego was 2 full points slower than Flower Alley off their last races (thats 4 lengths) and the weight shift was going to add another 6 pounds (2 more lengths) to the differential (6 full lengths in Flower Alley\'s favor), Borrego would have had to win the Pacific Classic in 1.59.2 to be Flower Alley\'s equal on JCGC day or win it in 1.59.4 to be Flower Alley\'s equal on Travers day and beat the horses he edged by four to six lengths). Did anyone think that was remotely close to reality? The form had the two turn track variants for those respective days relatively equal.

Today, I\'m not sure how fast Borrego\'s Pacific Classic was, but I\'m postive Flower Alley\'s Travers was slower than negative 2.2.

Borrego 1, Flower Alley 0

C.Hill 9.0 %

Beyer, Borrego scored 1

NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub,
>
> It was my lock of the week prediction  last week
> that Ctc will try to dominate this board with BC
> stuff. CH has been rather patient lately..
>
> CtC and Easy Goer.What a pair.
>
> NC Tony
>
>

[richiebee]

Chuckles:

    I\'ve always appreciated some of your insights and enjoy the role you play.

    I take issue with your comment \"Horse racing has 2 seasons. The Triple Crown and the Breeder\'s Cup\". I would say without much pride that I have played the races, mostly NYRA, for the last 20 years, week in, week out, 12 months a year, 3 or 4 days a week. For the 7 years before that my position in life was such that I was on the racetrack about 350 days a year.

    Maybe thats the difference in perspective between you and me (and a lot of the posters on this board and the host of this board). To you, its play, and it gives you the chance to exercise your sometimes enjoyable argumentative skills; the rest of us may be taking it a little more seriously than you are, for better
or worse.

   EDIT: Chuckles, by the way, I thought that your postulate that an inaccurate
number assigned in the Wood could have resulted in a chain reaction or ripple effect creating inaccurate numbers later in the year was thought provoking. It
may have been buried in dicta so I don\'t know if everyone caught it.

     

CTC,

The Pacific Classic is the controversial figure (not the Travers).

I\'ve seen 4 sets of figures and made my own for that day and I\'m still looking
for two people that agree on the pace and/or final final. There were only two routes that day (both late in the card) and obviously 10F is not run very frequently. So it\'s harder to get a grip on the pace on that track, it\'s impact (if any) and the overall performance of the horses.  

It looks like Beyer made the race faster than the other figures I\'ve seen.

Another person made the race slower, but with a blazing pace that gave the pace setters good overall ratings.    

Another person made the race in between the above two, but with a \"moderately fast pace\" that primarily impacted the second tier horses and to a lesser degree Lava Man.

One could come to very different conclusions about several horses in that race depending whose final time figures and whose pace figures (if anyones) you are looking at.

I know what I think.

[beyerguy]

Since when did the figure a horse ran in the next race make a prior figure right or wrong?  Along the same line, horses beat each other all the time.  You think Flower Alley was cranked for his best at Saratoga and may have regressed a bunch off two huge races?  His running poorly doesn\'t change his figures from Saratoga one iota in my opinion.  The horse didn\'t run his best yesterday.  He did in the Travers, and it probably would be good enough to beat Borrego in my opinion.  

Isn\'t that what handicapping is all about?  You judge the ability of the horses, then decide which ones are likely to run to the best of its ability TODAY, then equate those opinions to the tote board.

[TGJB]

No, FA ran the same figure Saturday getting beat a hundred lengths as he did winning the Travers. I\'m going to pair him up and give Borrego minus 50, with an \"H?\".

beyer,

I don\'t disagree with you in this case (Travers and Flower Alley), but this line of reasoning can be used to defend almost any figure. I\'m sure we agree on this.

I think to conclude that a figure was probably correct it has to be supported by the horses figures coming in plus a reasonable interpretation of how they might have run that day and their subsequent performances accompanied by a reasonable interpretation of how they might have run next.  

If all the evidence (in and out) suggests a race or rating was either too fast or too slow.....

The problem is that \"reasonable\" is in the eye of the figure maker who will generally tend towards intepreting the results of all races in support of his own figures and any other handicapping biases he has.

That\'s one reason why these debates rarely solve anything.

[jimbo66]

Well,

At least you will make Miffy happy.......


As long as you are in the mood to \"not give\" pairups, can you back and review the Louisiana Derby one more time..............

[jimbo66]

Beyerguy,

Have to disagree with you one point.  I have no idea what the figure from Saturday will be, but I would guess that Borrego\'s race on Saturday beats Flower Alley\'s Travers.  We\'ll see when the figures come out.

We have debated on this board about \"H\" and I know jerry has said before that generally speaking he doesn\'t think that just because a horse seems within himself, it doesn\'t mean he can go much faster.  And I agree most of the time.

But I have to think that Borrego\'s race on Saturday and Saint Liam in the Woodward are two exceptions to that rule.  Don\'t know what SL got in the Woodward, but he really was just galloping in the stretch.  Borrego was not quite the same level of \"H\", but he was really shut down early by Garrett Gomez.  Have to see if that smart move by Gomez manifests itself in the horse being able to avoid a bounce in the BC Classic, as I am quite sure that his Saturday race had to beat his previous top of around \"0\".

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Those were good horses and it was a good race. Lava Man prefers to hear his hooves rattle and his fade was probably related to several factors. Bounce or Off race among them. Clearly in the Hollywood Gold Cup he caught a very fast surface. Obviously the Pacific Classic fractional battles played a role in the outcome, as did the increasing weight Lava was asked to carry.

If I was pressed, I\'d say the Pacific Classic was faster than Tgraph says it was. I wasn\'t in stern opposition to your comment that Super Frolic\'s race there was his best. Though, I think he\'s got more in him and more than he showed at Hawthorne.

classhandicapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CTC,
>
> The Pacific Classic is the controversial figure
> (not the Travers).
>
> I\'ve seen 4 sets of figures and made my own for
> that day and I\'m still looking
> for two people that agree on the pace and/or final
> final. There were only two routes that day (both
> late in the card) and obviously 10F is not run
> very frequently. So it\'s harder to get a grip on
> the pace on that track, it\'s impact (if any) and
> the overall performance of the horses.  
>
> It looks like Beyer made the race faster than the
> other figures I\'ve seen.
>
> Another person made the race slower, but with a
> blazing pace that gave the pace setters good
> overall ratings.    
>
> Another person made the race in between the above
> two, but with a \"moderately fast pace\" that
> primarily impacted the second tier horses and to a
> lesser degree Lava Man.
>
> One could come to very different conclusions about
> several horses in that race depending whose final
> time figures and whose pace figures (if anyones)
> you are looking at.
>
> I know what I think.
>

Actually Richie, I think Tgraph is far too professional to allow a known contestable figure to \"ripple\" effect for long. I\'m quite sure they factored  the Hallandale one turn mile trying to figure the Travers. But, theres no doubt with the \"extrapolation method\" that a difficult figure can impact latter figures. Especially so when the difficult figure hasn\'t receieved the kind of scrutiny the Wood number has received. Though theres a human trait when you\'ve done your best to want to validate and that has to be overcome in the curing. And its still possible he\'s a world beater. He gets next year to settle it.

I do take this game seriously. Very seriously, but debating here is fun. You won\'t see me taking personal shots until I\'m swung at and even then I\'m laughing when I respond. Its a tough deal. You gotta figure how fast they were and which way they are going next. It ain\'t easy.

My personal bias in figure making is that numbers cannot be assumed to pair at different distances. Thats probably inconsistent with TGraph, but thats where I find debate.

You are clearly a knowledgeable race guy and I read all your posts.

Folks that made the Wood number want to believe it
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles:
>
>     I\'ve always appreciated some of your insights
> and enjoy the role you play.
>
>     I take issue with your comment \"Horse racing
> has 2 seasons. The Triple Crown and the Breeder\'s
> Cup\". I would say without much pride that I have
> played the races, mostly NYRA, for the last 20
> years, week in, week out, 12 months a year, 3 or 4
> days a week. For the 7 years before that my
> position in life was such that I was on the
> racetrack about 350 days a year.
>
>     Maybe thats the difference in perspective
> between you and me (and a lot of the posters on
> this board and the host of this board). To you,
> its play, and it gives you the chance to exercise
> your sometimes enjoyable argumentative skills; the
> rest of us may be taking it a little more
> seriously than you are, for better
> or worse.
>
>    EDIT: Chuckles, by the way, I thought that your
> postulate that an inaccurate
> number assigned in the Wood could have resulted in
> a chain reaction or ripple effect creating
> inaccurate numbers later in the year was thought
> provoking. It
> may have been buried in dicta so I don\'t know if
> everyone caught it.
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 10/03/05 02:29PM by
> richiebee.


I don\'t know. Seems to me its a serious issue for the board. It involves both substance testing and impairment. Maybe they take substance testing of ALL animals in Indiana seriously. The threshold was .05, thats a very low threshold if I\'m not mistaken.

Some folks are inclined to question. Some are inclined to take things at face value. Sure doesn\'t seem unreasonable that Saturday night he may have had dinner and a beer. One beer would probably cause a 113 pound jockey to blow over .05

Guess that means he shouldn\'t have had the beer. Maybe Braulio Baeza took money too. Just seems giving the benefit of the doubt until the facts are in is not bad policy when it comes to people\'s reputations.

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Class,
>
> Maybe you should apply for a job as Baze\'s
> counsel.
>
> So, you are now asking Jerry if it is possible
> that Baze went out to dinner that night and had
> wine, not knowing that they do breathalyzers.
>
> Jerry, do you have a track man at all the
> restaurants near Hoosier?  Can you comment on the
> possibility that Baze had wine that night?  Can
> you also notate it in the sheets for the horses he
> has ridden in the past 3 months.
>
>
> Sorry Class, but your post is a classic example of
> the inane stuff that shouldn\'t be on this board,
> especially with less than 4 weeks until the
> Breeders Cup.

[beyerguy]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Beyerguy,
>
> Have to disagree with you one point.  I have no
> idea what the figure from Saturday will be, but I
> would guess that Borrego\'s race on Saturday beats
> Flower Alley\'s Travers.  We\'ll see when the
> figures come out.
>

I know the figure didn\'t crack the DRF Beyer leaderboard which means below 110, and the time looked pretty ordinary.  He did lose some ground, so I guess we\'ll see...

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- to clarify, I believe that when a horse is asked most of the race, but not ridden out the last 100 yards or so (finishes \"on his own courage\") he probably could not have run much faster, if at all. When the horse is not urged at any point (St. Liam) or geared down (Borrego) it\'s a different story.

But more importantly, there is a point Ragozin made to me years ago (who says I don\'t give him credit?)-- just because they could have run faster this time doesn\'t mean they get to use that energy next time.

Having said that, after Borrego won I sent an e-mail to the owner of Even The Score saying, if Flores had done that with ETS when we won the Mervyn LeRoy, instead of hitting him everywhere but on the bottom of his feet when he won by a block, we might have won the Hollywood Gold Cup last year, instead of bouncing and running third.

I thought Borrego won totally wrapped up from about 1/8 pole, but I think it was visually more impressive than the reality because the race fell apart.

I have an \"additional\" take on this. Some horses that win with visible reserves of energy do so because of the lackluster competition, but would have folded if pressed harder all the way by better horses. Some horses that win with visible reserves of energy actually do have much deeper reserves and will run faster if pressed harder (up to a point).

This can be observed most frequently among lightly raced horses that are just starting to move through their conditions.

You can\'t always tell which is which via observation, but sometimes you can make a very educated guess by looking at the pedigree, connections, WOs in company etc....  

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

lol...they are gonna kill you Class.

Hey, I don\'t give trainers the benefit of the doubt either. But I have empirical evidence on that.

classhandicapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I have an \"additional\" take on this. Some horses
> that win with visible reserves of energy do so
> because of the lackluster competition, but would
> have folded if pressed harder all the way by
> better horses. Some horses that win with visible
> reserves of energy actually do have much deeper
> reserves and will run faster if pressed harder (up
> to a point).
>
> This can be observed most frequently among lightly
> raced horses that are just starting to move
> through their conditions.
>
> You can\'t always tell which is which via
> observation, but sometimes you can make a very
> educated guess by looking at the pedigree,
> connections, WOs in company etc....

[jimbo66]

Class,

I won\'t say anything too inflammatory about your comments, but go watch the race again.  

The move he made to swoop the whole field in a few strides and blow the race apart, was more than \"visually impressive\'.  You can drop the \"visually\".

I guess the overall time was not outstanding, considering the apparent track speed, but he had more than a little left in the tank at the end.