Let's Make It Official

[beyerguy]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
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> That horse has run for everybody. I\'m sure thats
> one reason TGraph wanted him.
>
> Cerin certainly didn\'t turn him around in 18
> days.

You are joking, right?  Some trainers \"turn around\" horses in a few days, as I\'m quite sure you are aware.  18 days is an eternity in this game.

[bdhsheets]

My, my, my. How soon we forget.

Vladimir had two horses test positive for \"milkshaking\" earlier this year and had the distinction joining Jeff Mullins in the detention barn. He also joined Mullins in saying the fans didn\'t have a right to know everything.

Fine, fine trainer indeed....

[spa]

OK....Kudos, But how you get it to rain??

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

lol Spa, I had Super Frolic Penciled in atop the three other placing horses despite worrying about the energy expenditure from the previous effort.

Then Two things happened.

It Rained, and

Espinoza came in 4 pounds over.

That track did not move that horse up, even though his pace style helped him some.

Anyone believing Super was more horse yesterday than he\'s been before under his other trainers didn\'t watch the same race. Theres probably more in the tank. If folks wanna give Cerin credit they can. That horse will run for anybody though, I think Beyer could train him.



spa Wrote:
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> OK....Kudos, But how you get it to rain??

[TGJB]

First of all, thanks guys.

Those of us who look at figures know that SF had indeed run good figures for two different trainers in different parts of the country, had not moved up in his DMR start, and almost certainly did not run a new top yesterday, unless the second and possibly third horses did as well. THE FIGURES HE HAD PREVIOUSLY RUN WERE WHAT MADE US RUN IN THOSE TWO SPOTS (and handicap the race the way we did), so it would be really silly to think that his running well there was just a coincidence, and due to improvement. The whole point of what we do is to find horses who don\'t look as good to the public (the dreaded box score) as they really are-- ability vs. accomplishment, with the goal of turning the former into the latter.

As for the rain-- Vlado went into an even deeper depression than usual when the track went sloppy. I told him that the horse was historically neutral, and that 3 siblings (now off the sheet because he\'s a 5yo) had run tops on off tracks. That reduced him to only mildly anxious.

I don\'t think the slop made any difference, and I think it will be reflected in the figures they ran. All the contenders were at least slop neutral (Lord of the Game may be plus), and all the right horses were there at the end, at about where their recent good races would put them when you factor in weight and ground.

We\'ll probably run in the BC because there is an awful lot of upside, and no place else to run. There aren\'t that many real contenders, they pay down to fifth, and in NY there is a good chance they will take the drug issue seriously, like they did at Santa Anita, and by all accounts (and results, especially in terms of figures run) did not last year. A top 4 finish would be a big win, and after having this horse much more than win himself out in 2 starts, and do enough to stand at stud somewhere, everything else is gravy.

[kev]

Hanging out with the owner and trainer, sounds like your right there on the frontline with this horse, was you there the year VG ran in the 98\' BC?? I think was the best BC ever, it was like Tom D. called it, \"A wild finish to the classic\"
Also is there a number that you\'ll like to see on his sheet ( from sat\'s race ) that would be a good thing??

[TGJB]

I\'ve actually never met either of them face to face, talk to the owner almost every day. He has a chance to turn into a major powerhouse in this business, and a great client for me-- he has everything from claimers to stallions, and trainers all over the same place.

I wanted to see SF get back to his top, even though he may bounce off it. You could excuse the last due to the trip, but if he didn\'t get back to it soon I was going to suggest giving him a break.

Yeah, 98 was a great BC, at least for me. Killed the pick 3 with Da Hoss winning the mile, the day would have been even better if VG ran 3/4 length better. But we did okay on close ones with him, I can\'t complain.

[P.Eckhart]

I\'d think it\'ll come out something like...

Super Frolic... -0.75 1w2w
Lord of the Game... 0 1w1w
Desert Boom... 0.65 2w2w
Perfect Drift... 0.37 2w3w

[J-DUB]

     
     TGJB,

     I know it was a great thrill for you when he crossed the wire in front. It had to be one of the best feelings ever. I\'m glad to see hard work, patience and insight pay off for you and your team. Best of luck going forward.

      Is Espinoza going to stay on if the BC is a go or does he have other options ? If he opts for another who would pick up the mount,if the thought process has looked that far ahead ?

[TGJB]

Don\'t know, we haven\'t got that far yet. He rode the horse exactly to instructions-- the rail at that joint is questionable, so we told him to try and stay a path off, and not go after the speed until they turned for home. As it turned out, the rail was fine.

So assuming he can make 126, and wants to ride him, my guess is he will. There will be a lot of top riders around that day, it won\'t be tough finding a good one to ride in a 4 million dollar race if he doesn\'t.

By the way, somebody really should watch what weights the riders in NY make this week, and compare it to the earlier time period.

TGJB,

>Those of us who look at figures know that SF had indeed run good figures for two different trainers in different parts of the country, had not moved up in his DMR start, and almost certainly did not run a new top yesterday, unless the second and possibly third horses did as well.<

It\'s highly unlikely he ran his best ever speed figure yesterday, but he was extremely game against horses of slightly higher quality than he was facing elsewhere on a track that certainly was not helping horses close. I like this performance at least as much (probably more) than his fast races against cheaper horses under less competitive circumstances.

He certainly didn\'t run a new top on speed figures at Del Mar, but there are plenty of pace handicappers around that thought he ran a better race that day than he had in any race up until that point. I am sure most thought (all else being equal) that he was going to fire a huge shot yesterday relative to the speed figure he was assigned at Del Mar. Many probably bet him off that race.  Most of the horses he was racing before that race would have finished 30 lengths out of it at Del Mar even with a good trip. Just look at the figures and records of some of the horses that got buried out there relative to what he was racing against prior. They didn\'t all run poorly or at the lower end of their typical range. They got torched.  

It\'s really a matter of semantics.

If a new top means running a higher speed figure, then he hasn\'t fired a new top. However, in the ROTW even TG conceded that he had a terrible trip while wide against a fast Grade 1 pace at Del Mar. For those of us that work diligently to quantify aspects of trip like dueling wide against higher quality horses than yourself and being wide into a fast pace etc.. we believe he ran a new top that day.

Why is that inconsistent with the more general TG view on his trip or the excellent purchase recommendation based on prior speed figures?

All we are doing is quantifying that trip based on years of research and coming to a conclusion that tends to hold up in subsequent racing.

[richiebee]

... and to top it all off, another SW for Distorted Humor.

[TGJB]

CH-- I\'m not going to delete it, but that\'s your last bite of that apple. It ain\'t the all-opinions-are-created-equal-and-CH-gets-to-repeat-himself-ad-nauseum site. Especially when it\'s just a fancy way of saying, that\'s your opinion, and you don\'t address the points (again). Everybody knows by now what you think, and I\'m being nice by stopping right there. Stop it or I will, as I  would for anyone else who filled up this board with repetitive opinion that few or none care about.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'m not altogether sure Super Frolic isn\'t vying for the #2 horse right now.

Once you get past Saint Liam, how many fearsome horses are there out there? Lava Man? He beat Super last out, but Super conceded Desormeaux lengths and didn\'t need to be quite that close. He sure made Lava Man run that race though didn\'t he? (Not factoring the three year olds as of now. Though Flower Alley will have to be factored off the Gold Cup.)

Super\'s Dam progeny dropped off the Tsheet for the ROTW, so I wasn\'t able to verify what Jerry said regarding Lindsay Frolics get liking slop. However Pine Bluff\'s TGI slides off slightly on Off going. The off going part of the debate is important. I don\'t think he was at his best in it, but folks can agree to disagree on that. He handled it yesj, as he did in his last Delaware Race. Tend to think Lord of the Game ran his 1 to perhaps as low as Zed. TGraph can figure it out. It was a legit race.

Personally, though its hindsight now, I like this horses 10 mark pedigree. Its very sneaky. Not that theres much need to scutinize it for 10 marks anymore but its certainly gotten some 10 mark horses. His problem is theres so few 10 mark races...lol

It may also be he waits on his competition a little once he heads them.




Its sneaky.

TGJB Wrote:
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>
> We\'ll probably run in the BC because there is an
> awful lot of upside, and no place else to run.
> There aren\'t that many real contenders, they pay
> down to fifth, and in NY there is a good chance
> they will take the drug issue seriously, like they
> did at Santa Anita, and by all accounts (and
> results, especially in terms of figures run) did
> not last year. A top 4 finish would be a big win,
> and after having this horse much more than win
> himself out in 2 starts, and do enough to stand at
> stud somewhere, everything else is gravy.
>
>

[kev]

Also I think Lava Man has to put up some big bucks to get in. SL will be the big fav. that day, is there a way to get him not to fire is the question. I was looking over some TG sheets for the BC and was thinking about fav\'s, I didn\'t bother with the baby races, but from 1999 to 2004 there was 36 races and the favorite won 12, 2nd 4, and 3rd 0. The point is trying to beat these type of horses and there was some false favs in those races, and the payoffs most of the time was monster. Number one ff (false fav ) I could come up with was PEACE RULES coming into the mile with weak truf numbers and going off at 3-1. People should really study these and the other BC sheets and build up your sheet reading skills. Who are some FF that you all might have played against those days?? Is Saint Liam going to be one of those to fall and cause a big payday for someone??