Woodward

[HP]

I am just reviewing another handicapping product (I won\'t mention it by name) focused on Belmont.  I decided to get it to maybe get a leg up on the Breeders Cup.  I think there may be a bit of a myth that Belmont may favor closers, but according to the stats, it looks like Belmont plays much closer to \"speed favoring\" than I would\'ve thought.  I can\'t really say if it\'s more \"speed favoring\" than the other tracks mentioned, but the stats did surprise me a little.  HP

[jbelfior]

HP--

I know the product you are referring to. It did not suprise me. I think Belmont plays better to speed on the dirt than Saratoga or Aqueduct. But this is an opinion from watching races with my eyes. Ultimately the stats may prove me wrong but it doesn\'t change the way I handicap Belmont dirt races. Unless a pronounced closer\'s bias exists (usually after it starts to dry out), I\'m favoring a horse with speed.

With all of that being said, if we end up with another cold blustery day on October 29th, closers may end up with the advantage.


Good Luck,
Joe B.  

[HP]

The problem is there are probably going to be some special preparations for Breeders Cup and that will alter the track a little, so if you look for a bias from the previous days\' races it may vanish.  

I was there twice this year and I noticed that it SMELLED different than I remembered it.  Sandier than ever.  It rained a little one day, and I thought a hermit crab would crawl up and bite me on the ass.  It may sound crazy, but I really thought it was a change from the year before.  HP

Maybe I should clarify what I consider a speed bias to be.

Obviously this is all subjective stuff that\'s probably going to piss Jerry off, but I hope he\'ll let it slide.

On most tracks speed is an advantage every day because you save ground, avoid trouble, already have position etc...  That\'s not the kind of bias I am referring to.  

When I am referring to a speed bias I mean that given two contenders that I would normally make \"dead even on that track on the typical day\", if I think the track will give the speed horse a bigger advantage than usual, that\'s a bias I would rate an S. I consider that kind of track to be like a biased roulette wheel. It\'s not dictating results, but it\'s a little extra in the favor of speed relative to what\'s normal on that track.

On a track like that, closers can and will win if they are superior, but a horse that has a little trouble getting 7F might find the wire. A pace duel that would normally cost the favorite the win, might get home anyway. A loose speed horse migth run an unexpected new top.

An S+ is much rarer. That\'s a day when the results seem to be dictated by running styles as opposed to modestly influenced by the running styles \"relative to normal for the track\". That happens sometimes on wet tracks and other rare occaisions.

None of my subjective views are based on wire to wire winner percentages or average position of the winner etc... They are based on how I rated the horses coming into the day and how they seemed to be running relative to those opinions. If there\'s a preponderance of evidence suggesting that a track \"might\" be biased, I make a note of it and adjust those performance up/down very slightly as evidence comes in.

Regardless of whether you agree or not, I thought the day of Whitney \"might be slightly tilted toward speed\". Please, let\'s not debate that part. So when I look at Commentator, I see a horse that cut a pretty fast pace. Yet he still held off St Liam. who I think is an excellent horse.  Normally, I would think he ran a terrific race after setting that pace despite being loose. However, I think he was able to cut those fast fraction and get away with it because the track was somewhat kind to speed that day. Essentially the track bias offset the pace. So I expect the weight shift to more than compensate. If Belmont is playing honest and the rabbits force a similar pace out of Commentator, I expect St. Liam to beat Commentator by more than the weight shift suggests.

If I am wrong, it won\'t be the first time.

OK jerry, you can put away the barf bag.

 
 

[jbelfior]

CH--


It stinks that NYRA could not get a better field for this. I\'m getting tired of this.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[jbelfior]

CH--


I agree that SAINT LIAM will probably turn the tables on COMMENTATOR. I like SHANIKO for a suck up second and will take a small shot in the win hole.

This could be the time of year where we get one of those AP INDY 4 yos that really get going. Last was a terrific # and visually the race should not have taken much out of him. One could argue that he could have run faster late if he needed to. He\'s probably better around 1 turn and the fact that he ran so impressively around 2 turns indicates he may now be ready to be a serious racehorse.

Now let\'s say that the Whitney was too tough on both of the favorites and neither one of them is in the mood for a :45 half tomorrow. SAINT LIAM needed more time to recover the last time he ran a neg 6.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

Joe,

\"Now let\'s say that the Whitney was too tough on both of the favorites and neither one of them is in the mood for a :45 half tomorrow. SAINT LIAM needed more time to recover the last time he ran a neg 6.\"

I hadn\'t even considered that. I guess I was just more or less assuming both of them would fire another big shot??? Good point about 1 turn/2 turn. I do think Commentator ran very well last time out. On my figures, I gave him a fast pace. I\'m just not giving him credit for it because of my opinion on the track. If the track wasn\'t a little biased, them maybe he\'s a freak. I don\'t think so yet.

[jbelfior]

It\'s also 2 big numbers in a row for him. Yes, COMMENTATOR may be a freak and his last was a terrific effort. I\'m betting the race took too much out of him.

Regardless, SHANIKO needs to improve big time even if the top 2 are off their game. As a 4yo in September out of AP INDY, the chances of a bright, shiny new top increase.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

I should add one thing.

\"None of my subjective views on biases are based on wire to wire winner percentages or average position of the winner etc... \"

The reason I don\'t look at stats like that is because over time I think the jockeys recognize extreme biases and adjust how aggressive they are early. So a track could be very speed favoring and not produce an unusual amount of wire to wire winners because the jocks are setting much faster fractions than normal (and vice versa!).

I\'ve seen that sort of thing repeatedly on a single day, let alone a entire meet where all the jockeys can eventually figure it out.

We all know turf racing is a little different. The paces are slower and they come home faster. Maybe that\'s a related type of phenomenon.

 

SHANIKO looks like an improving horse, but I agree that he has a long way to go get up to St Liam. I often get suckered into trying to beat horses like Commentator for the place in the exacta. I\'ll be at the US Open tomorrow rooting for Agassi. Hopefully I\'ll save some money.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Belmont can be favor different pace styles depending upon the day. As TGraphs studies have tended to indicate its moisture content related. The big sandy can be anything depending upon the time of year. It can be deep and favor front runners. It can be wet and favor off pace. Its remarkable, you just have to watch it close on the day you\'re betting.

Its pretty clear the Spa was favoring quick steppers by the Whitney. Commentator did come home in roughly 26:4 extrapolated...thats indicating end of the rope. You add the 10 pds. 6 pound swing and projected pace challenge and he\'ll need the one turn to try and hold on. However, its a crappy race. Even factoring bounce probability. Who you gonna bet 3-5 St.Liam? Or Even money Commentator?  Or you gonna go way out on the limb and say Shaniko is gonna take his Saratoga form to Belmont where he hasn\'t been as effective? Purely a watch it race.

I can\'t say i\'ve ever smelled the track per se. I\'ve smelled the horses and infield lake and even the building. But dont think I\"ve smelled the track.


classhandicapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Beyer,
>
> I don\'t look at nearly as many charts as you do,
> but I don\'t know many horseplayers that would say
> Belmont is generally more speed favoring than the
> Aqu Inner Track, Aqu Main Track, or Saratoga (on
> the day of the Whitney) on average. My impression
> is that that\'s true of the CA tracks also because
> when I review various major stakes, there seems to
> be more suspect speed days. Not sure how you are
> measuring speed favoring, but I rarely give a day
> at Belmont an S+ rating and only occasionally an S
> rating. Usually, I consider the track honest other
> than an occasional rail bias issue. I gave out
> plenty of S ratings to Saratoga this year and they
> are more routine at the other NYRA tracks also. I
> did notice Churchill seeming to have a lot of BR
> days this year that seemed to be helping closers.
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 09/09/05 09:55AM by
> classhandicapper.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Class,

Is this really the goal for St. Liam ? If it is he\'s a NO GO for he BC Classic.

It appears as if Dutrow is either pointing for this or to insure Commentator will not win this regarless if St. Liam does. Now What is the take on dropping Prado on this horse? Did he really do a bad job last time?

Also noticed that Prado no longer seems to be the No1 guy for Dutrow lately.

MAybe I\'m wrong, but I just don\'t think this Horse is \"the Horse\". He\'s good and a competitor, but doesn\'t seem to have the winner heart.

NC Tony

NCT,

I don\'t think the race is very bettable. I\'m mostly interested in it from a sporting perspective. Everyone\'s goal is the BC, but IMO if Dutrow thought that St Liam wasn\'t at least close to 100%, I don\'t think he\'d bother with the rabbits. I think Commentator will need the BC classic to get HOTY/best older horse even if he wins tomorrow and I don\'t like his chances in a big field at 10F at all. I think he\'s going to get buried that day. He can win tomorrow if the rabbits are so pathetic he shakes them off quickly (they are low quality) or if he can somehow run as well under rating tactics. That\'s not impossible, but I wouldn\'t want to bet on it either. He has shown no inclination to back off at all so far. I\'d be a little surprised if St Liam doesn\'t run well. I think he has run very well for Durtow every time he as run (even in defeat) except at 10F with a bit of a tougher trip. The best case scenario is that I am wrong and Commentator wins impressively. It won\'t cost me anything if that happens and it ensures that I can make a very big bet on someone in the Classic.  

I should say that I am deader than a zombie in a \"B\" horror movie these days. So you may want to take what I say with an even bigger grain of salt than usual.

[jimbo66]

The race is unbettable, at least with a 15% takeout.  Shaniko is a scratch, which means we have three betting interests, one of which is a rabbit.  St. Liam will be 1-2 and Commentator 7-5.  

I guess St. Liam is more likely to run another big number and with the six pounds added on to Commentator, St. Liam is the likely winner.  Call it a \"heart\" bet, but I am taking 2-1 on a \'matchup\' bet with Commentator.  In a virtual match race, I think 2-1 is a fair and I can\'t skip a grade 1.

Have to agree with the poster who likes Relaxed Gesture in the Man O War.  Sounds like Jerry thinks the horse has developed too much and is a little negative on him.  I think he got bad trips the last two races, and the Santos off, NAkatani on move is positive to me.  I think the rabbit helps this horse, as he was obliged to chase the Frankel horse last time in a paceless race.  The horse should relax better this time.  The price figures square, at maybe 4-1.  

jimbo,

My thinking on the Man O War is similar to yours. You have been warned

I think the rabbit was a waste of time in that last turf affair when he opened up 15, but I think he\'s more likely to be relevant in this spot. King\'s Drama has done his best running on the front end and hasn\'t looked as good when he wasn\'t on the lead. Perhaps he\'s a better horses now or more vesatile than he\'s shown to date, but I think you are always taking on additional pace related risk with a horse like this, in a spot like this, and need to be compensated.  

On the flip side, Relaxed Gesture was forced to keep King\'s Drama honest last time out. This time he will be able to sit just off the pace and be in a good position to pounce on him when the rabbit throws in the towel.  

I am less negative on Better Talk Now than some people though. His reputation may be greater than the horse because of the BC win, but that wasn\'t a bad effort in the Arlington Million. IMO that group was superior to the Sword Dancer despite the similar speed. I think he may be the deserving favorite over RG, but perhaps the value might be the other way aroound. We\'ll have to see the odds.