ROTW

[HP]

I like Three In The Bag in here.  I would box him with Frankel\'s horse.  I don\'t think the filly will make it.  I\'ll have to check the tote!  Good luck.  HP

[bjt]

A few thoughts on the Queens\'s Plate card:

4th race - At the weights ITW looks as fast as SF - but I really can\'t see opposing the favourite here . SF is 8 for 9 on the Woodbine turf - only losing to Touch of the Blues in the G1 Atto Mile in 2003 .

5th race - QK hardly looks like a prototypical winner of a NW1 race - but toss the lone turf try and the line looks very solid and fast vs the rest of the field .I write this before seeing the ML - but I wouldn\'t take less than 4-1.

6th race - BOF is the most successful marathon turf horse in the field - likes the course and had a decent 4yo seasonal bow . Should go gate to wire.

7th - A very competetive race . KR penultimate # may be somewhat buried to the public . A 5w effort at 7F May 23 makes him the fastest horse . I believe the horse is a more effective off the pace sprinter than a router . FR is an obvious danger - but will need a helluva a trip from the 14 hole.

9th race - I\'ve got to disagree with HP here - I think the filly is the play .
She is visually impressive and is obviously the fastest horse . her best will win - or even a small backward move still wins . Hopefully she goes off a little better than the ML . Three in the bag looks solid - but the jockey has never seen a 4path trip he didn\'t love - so groundloss is a concern .
Frankel has done nothing up here this year 1for17 - so I\'ll take a stand against WD.

10th race - SN 2yo turf number holds up here as good or better than the field save SS 2yo turf debut .
SS make his seasonal bow - so I believe SN holds the edge . Dirt numbers are ok so he should go well here .

bj

 

Granique - too slow

Molinaro Beau - too slow

Runaway Mon - too slow

King of Jazz - I wish this was 9F instead of 10F because I think this horse is much less likely to move backwards than it looks. I\'m just a little suspect about his desire to go 10F. If there are any pedigree experts out there, I\'d like to hear what you have to say about that. KOJ\'s MSW race on 4/22 came back very slow. It was a very sensible figure based on the horses in that race. However, virtually every horse that has run out of that race has run a much improved figure in their next start (or 2). So either all of them including KOJ mysteriously improved at the same time by similar amounts or there\'s something freaky about that figure that no one picked up on because it made so much sense at the time it was made. His pattern and workout line looks a lot healthier to me when viewed in the light of that 4/22 race being better than it looks. Plus we know that these limited winners from the US fit well at WO based on Three in the Bag. If this horse wants 10F, IMO he is very dangerous.

Wild Desert - This is actually first time Dutrow, not Frankel. Frankel took over when Dutrow got suspended. IMHO, that makes this horse even more dangerous because I think Dutrow is more dangerous with higher quality stock first time when he works with it for a couple of months before racing. The only knock I can find is the running style. I don\'t like deep closers like this unless I expect the race to fall apart and I don\'t really see that here. This type usually makes a nice run without getting the job done. This is a horse I won\'t bet on top unless the price is just begging me to use him, but if he shows more speed and wins for Frankel/Dutrow I guarantee I\'ll be spitting.

Ablo - a little too slow for me.

Gold Strike - High caliber filly in a race with very mediocre colts.  Fits very well.

Three in the Bag - Fits well, but several of his stretch runs don\'t inspire a lot of confidence about his desire to go 10F.

Dance with Ravens - Lightly raced very well bred improving colt fits well, but has been life and death in the stretch to beat these mediocre colts and could be overrated in the betting.

Get Down - Couldn\'t handle TITB and DWR and doesn\'t look like a horse that will appreciate an extra furlong.  


 



 





 




 

[jimbo66]

Class,

Congrats.  You went the whole analysis without mentioning pace.

I think you are right about King of Jazz.  I think there is some evidence that the figure he earned on 4/22 might be light.  Would like to hear from Jerry on how solid he is on that figure.  

I have to use Wild Desert though.  The whole thing smells with this horse.  He switches to Dutrow, shows no published works for months.  But he has been working \"real well\" according to the stable, but somehow the Monmouth clockers didn\'t recognize the horse, so they didn\'t capture the workouts. PVal, goes up to Canada to ride the horse, gotta believe he doesn\'t need the frequent flier miles, so he is going because he thinks the horse has a shot.

The filly is real fast and could be any kind.  But the 3rd race in a short span, off of two weeks rest, going 1 1/4, as either the favorite or 2nd favorite, makes me want to bet against her in the top slot.  

Hoping Dance with Ravens goes off the favorite.  He and his perfect pedigree, makes him a \"poor man\'s Saarland\" in my book.

Probably play King of Jazz and Wild Desert over King of Jazz, Wild Desert and the filly.  Maybe a win bet on either KoJ or WD, depending on the odds.

Good luck.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

These are closely matched animals. You can\'t wager on this race without a pace and trip analysis.

Start with this question. Who will be on the lead after a quarter?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hoping Dance with Ravens goes off the favorite.
> He and his perfect pedigree, makes him a \"poor
> man\'s Saarland\" in my book.


Saarland was Unbridled over Versailles Treaty I believe. This horse is A.P.Indy over a Canadian Triple Crown and B.C. Distaff winner if I\'m not mistaken. Nothing second rate about his pedigree.(Later: Dance Smartly has already produced 2 Queen\'s Plate winners...lol)

The horse I want to bet in this race is Palladio. Where is he?

[bjt]

This race is restricted to CDN breds only - If memory serves Palladio is a KY bred. bj

\"I think you are right about King of Jazz. I think there is some evidence that the figure he earned on 4/22 might be light. Would like to hear from Jerry on how solid he is on that figure. \"

I was using only the subsequent Beyers for that analysis because I don\'t have a TG figure for every horse out of that race (use Formulator). Either way, it\'s hard to believe that all those Beyer figures could be that far off. All the horses could have improved, but I thought the whole thing was relevant enough to bring up because it could change the perception of KOJ\'s likely performance tomorrow.  

The more I think about Wild Desert, the more I agree with you. I think you have to use him on some tickets. I just hate that running style.

I think the filly might get the lead, but I don\'t have any relevant pace insights.

[TGJB]

I pulled the 4/22 Kee race, but can\'t post it because neither Paul nor Alan is around today, and I\'m not computer savvy enough. (By the way, Alan will be in the Hollywood park Gift Shop tomorrow to meet players. We are now selling there.) Some of the horses moved forward in their next couple of starts, some did not, and they were lightly raced spring 3yos, so some figured to. On the solid scale it\'s about a 7, and that\'s before taking into account that you would have to take off a lot more from that race than the other routes to do it otherwise.

[mikemd]

my top two most likely winners are gold strike and three in the bag.  i have dance with ravens about 6th in this race.  however, i don\'t know if you have to adjust the numbers because of the exchange rate, so i\'m just to going to play something wacky here.  assuming morning line, gold strike to win as the fastest horse and some exactas using granique and ablo.

consider it a donation to the mutuel pool.

Thanks.  If I can bother you some more, did you break out the figure for Pleasant Lyric\'s last race. (she ran in yesterday\'s 3rd race at Belmont). The race in question is from May 29 at Monmouth - race 10.

[TGJB]

I don\'t have a problem with your bringing pace into the equation in handicapping a race here as long as you don\'t beat it to death.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Judging the pace is a bit of a challenge in this race. Granique has some speed and you\'d have to think he\'s gonna protect his position from the one hole. The filly does have good early foot too, but there is no confirmed front ender and going that far you have to think they are all going to keep in mind saving something. Personally, I don\'t think the pace is going to be very fast and thats liable to be a factor depending on the track.

The filly is the most accomplished and if shes not the favorite you\'d have to be very surprised. The TFigs make her head and withers above this bunch, but you have to take note of the forging and progressive lines here too. These colts have been pointing for this and better number fillies sometimes struggle vs. colts. If she\'s second, third choice and around 5-1, she\'d be very attractive. Dixieland Brass (her broodmare sire) would have made waves in 1989 had he not gone bad. He had female side pedigree.

Still, it seems pretty clear for Gold Strike this race was an afterthought. They have confirmed shes good and put this one on the agenda late. The question is can she come back strong on short rest. She has a subtlely stout female side to rely upon.

[bjt]

After handicapping  the card again a couple of other horses at decent M/L odds caught my eye .

7th race - Imperial Alydeed has a real solid line this year - last year his line was a complete zig-zag . Apprentice rider up so gets 5 pounds - could be gone on the engine . Would save in exactors with KR and the 2 entry .

10th race - Autumn Snow gets Bejarano who is sticking around for the ride after the Plate . Powerful Tomlinson turf numbers and nice turf work last week. Nice dirt line this year and nice M/L price . Depending on odds and price on Stag Nation would bet either higher odds horse or both and exactor box.

11th race - Porto Seguro could be sitting on a good one after the last turf race where he had a very wide post and dueled most of the way. His 7F Keeneland number makes him relevant here.

GOOD LUCK to all.

bj

[Michael D.]

$1 mio purse??? time to get involved in canadian breds. five of the ten went for about $40g at auction....

i think i\'m going with wild desert here at ml of 6-1. the four drawn inside of him all have some degree of tactical speed. valenzuela should save ground for most of the race. got up to a nice \"7\" top as a 2 yr old, then had a decent looking pattern heading into the ark derby. something obviously went wrong there, and now he reappears for frankel and i\'m hoping for a return to old form. i don\'t like his pedigree to get 10f, but the only one really bred to get the distance is dance with ravens, and he will be low odds and will most likely lose ground around both turns. the filly is fast, but she will be struggling late. there is a good chance that she is simply too good, and will run away with it anyway, but i will try and beat her at low odds.