ROTW

[mikemd]

yesterday, i thought pd might go off about 4-5/1.  right now i think he may go off around 2/1-5/2.  he would be a toss for me at those odds.  

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Saint Elmo\'s Fire - With a (3) 2-1-0 record at Churchill it may be questionable to speculate he isn\'t ideal over the track, but he did grind to win the Clark and the Clark number though good certainly doesnt tower over this field. The weight shift between Saint and Dread is enough to alter the Clark outcome. However, there is the negative 4 and 6 to worry about, (They both are \"bore out\" numbers), but this is a different track that many times isn\'t going to yield an outrageous figure. If St.Elmo runs a negative 1 or negative 1 and change does that make him the winner? Underneath exotics use.

Contrary to Saint Elmo\'s Fire is the Churchill record on Perfect Dread, its (6) 1-2-3 Some may look at that and say \"He doesn\'t really care for the strip\". Tend to think the reverse is true. That his best numbers are run here. If he can return to best or near best, he has a shot to win. Atop lightly and in exotics.

Presidential Affair is the fastest of the fast here. Badge of Silver will have to run at thim. Running hard early didn\'t work out real well for Badge in the last one. Some think Presidential\'s the same horse slop or dry. I\'m not of that opinion and tend to think he wants a dry track. That was a heckuva race last on a surface that sapped early speed. His best here probably wins, but his yearly campaigns have fizzled after his best efforts and he started this campaign with a zinger. How to interpret that? I\'ll do so on odds and probably make this horse a win and exotics play.

I\'m looking at multiple sources on M.B.Sea. I\'m stunned TGraph has him running only a 2.1 that last race. Theres the Off Poorly notation, but this horse always breaks like a donkey. His best TFig is a negative 0.2 Even that may not be enough but I\'m looking for his best race today and will use him in exotics.

Badge of Silver is the cheater doubled. He can\'t be ignored and is a good horse. His best is a negative 2. That could certainly win, but that negative 2 was a front end effort and he may press a bit from off the pace. I\'m looking for a negative 1 or thereabouts first time on the track and from behind. That could win, it may not. Underneath exotics use.

Hmmmn, I thouht CD might be tilted a little speed. Then Don\'t Get Mad ran as expected. Now the 9th looked like speed again. Either this is an honest racetrack or DGM ran a really nice race today. Tough to play the Stephen Foster without knowing what the heck is going on - not with the probable pace and distance issues being so important.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Tend to agree with you Class that speed is not bad. Think Don\'t Get Mad was just the best of his bunch and overcame a bit, but he undoubtedly loves the strip.

[Michael D.]

the track is quick, as it is on all big days at CD.... the favs look tough here. i think the crowd has it correct. i will use MB sea underneath. some decent #\'s back there. day should save ground all the way around. gets in light.

I\'m with you Chuckles.

I was considering a wager on Perfect Drift, but I don\'t want 3-1/7-2... and that goes double on this track. This could help a horse like BOS if SL is not 100%. I guess it also helps the Pres. but I don\'t have faith in that horse against this caliber.  

That was very impressive.

We need Roses in May and Rock Hard Ten to get it together. We might still be able to salvage the season even without the Ghost.  

Decent race by Eurosilver too. He\'s still moving forward.

[Michael D.]

HUGE late money there on the frankel horses. PD from 2-1 to 7-2, MBS from 23-1 to 39-1 in the last few minutes. i didn\'t like eurosolver at all. he loved the rock hard surface though.... can anybody explain why the CD crew makes the track so damn quick on these days??

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Not sure, you could see it developing though. Kinda mitigates against the notion tracks are getting slower. That final raw time was obviously on a very fast surface.

Wasn\'t gonna win with the Frankels atop and didn\'t factor Eurosilver either.

I didn\'t like Euro either, but he\'s obviously getting better based on this performance.

[Michael D.]

any thoughts out there on how graded stakes super-testing has affected pletcher and frankel? limehouse, ashado, GZ, LH - these horses are running their eyeballs out.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> any thoughts out there on how graded stakes
> super-testing has affected pletcher and frankel?
> limehouse, ashado, GZ, LH - these horses are
> running their eyeballs out.

Don\'t think Supertesting has impacted the supers at all and don\'t factor drugs off. I\'d like to hear the sites view on that.

Its gonna be a very interesting figure. If TGraph wants to give Saint Liam his accustomed Negative four its gonna get very quizzical on M.B.Sea who ran the bang up race I hoped for. Just didn\'t anticpate Eurosilver\'s improve, which would also have to be a career top. Gonna be interesting where they go with this.

IMO, there\'s been a few strange duds (like Sis City), but most of the failures I am familiar with were explainable. You\'d expect to get a few duds here or there anyway. However, there\'s at least a couple of lower level trainers at Belmont that normally move horses up that aren\'t doing very well these days.    

[Michael D.]

my ticket was SL and PD over MBS, eurosilver killed me...... the race has to come up fast, i think it was one of the fastest 9f ever run there.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

tough beat Michael

I\'m gonna get beat bucking frankel, but when I catch him it usually makes up for the misses. Bet small, win big. The key to this race was obviously Eurosilver he exceeded his 1, I just can\'t imagine TGraph giving him a negative 4 also, but who knows.