ROTW

[spa]

The superfecta might pay better than it should.....................

[davidrex]

     Please...could you be more specific...thanx

[HP]

Perfect Drift is probably one of my all-time money burners.  I think I\'ve used him in some race every year he\'s run, beginning with his crappy Derby performance (one of the first highly touted \"lightly campaigned\" 3yos - talk about a money burning angle...), and I\'ve never cashed.  I\'ll stay off him here and he\'ll probably win by...a nose if he\'s lucky.  I bet him last time.  Yeesh.  

HP

[spa]

Saint Liam over a box Badge of Silver/Presidentialaffair/Perfect drift.....HP....I bet him last time too.......and the Breeder\'s Cup and...and well, you get it !!!!

[HP]

Stevens up last out, he\'s winning everything, especially on grass.  My money\'s in - NINTH!  I\'m kind of angry that this is the ROTW and I have to look at his sheet again.  HP

You might want to limit that angle to races where there are fewer high quality lightly raced horses that can also move up and beat you. Especially when they are all gunning for tha race. You might also want to insist on more than 7-1 on a horse that is much slower than a few that are coming out of races of higher quality. Other than that, I think he ran quite well and did improve in the Derby.

I\'m a sucker for Perfect Drift also.

I played him in the Stephen Foster last year because I thought he was prepped in a manner that worked the year before. The track was a mess so I really don\'t know what to make of his performance. He came back with a few good ones after that though.

They are using the same preparation this year and I think he has actually looked a little better to this point than he did last year. The one problem I have with him is that at some point last year he started looking like a horse that did just enough to \"NOT WIN. I hate that.

The race should set up nicely for him. Even if there\'s no duel, it\'s hard to imagine that the pace won\'t be lively with Presidential Affair, Badge of Silver, St Liam and maybe even Eurosilver pressing the issue.

He\'s going to have to be on the top of his game to beat St Liam if that one comes back close to 100%. Normally, I love betting against horses like SL in Grade 1 races, but this one has run some huge ones off a layoff. His race against the Ghost last year off a layoff was monsterous. The Donn was also very good, but I think that may have been more a matter of RIM being short and prepping for the Dubai Cup than SL running so well.

Presidential Affair runs an occasional big race, but it\'s usually against very weak competition that can\'t get to him either early or late. He generally wilts against higher level horses.

IMO, Badge of Silver prefers a slightly shorter distance. He can win at 9F, but it isn\'t optimal. He was life and death against Dynever despite a very good trip and cut blazing fractions in his win in the New Orleans, but I think the track carried him home that day. In his last race he got some pressure from a speedy but cheaper horse and couldn\'t even hold off Pollard\'s Vision. I don\'t have a ton of confidence at 9F against this caliber with this much quality speed keeping it honest. I would need a bigger price than is likely.


 

 
   

[mikemd]

let me join the bandwagon, albiet in a very light manner.

i have no real edge in this race.  i have perfect drift as the slightest of overlays, but not enough to wager on at his morning line of 4/1.  fun looking at his pps.  he\'s the widest horse i\'ve ever seen.  probably wide again tomorrow.  9/18 winners thru his 4yo season, 1/11 since with 5 seconds.  

now, the phipps on the other hand....

[shanahan]

what am I missing on the analysis for the ROTW?  St Liam\'s verbage indicates he\'s a nobrainer, but the pattern suggests good chance of \"off\" or even more so an \"X\"...which puts him as a play against as many have pointed out...but why is PD being dismissed so easily - I don\'t get it.  For me, it\'s PD/Prez/SL in htat order of preference...

[spa]

How do you figure a bounce for Saint Liam ?? Looks to me he\'s due for a big race !!!!

[shanahan]

a bounce could win, of course...but I see it as 85% that he runs a -1 or worse...for me, that\'s a bet against the win for STL.

[J-DUB]

   shanahan,

           Keep in mind the 28% for off and the 57% for \"x\" are based on his effective top, in this case a negative 6. Even with a regression he is more than likely to run another negative number in relation to his \"effective\" top. With his history of firing big off of layoffs and the % still being in his favor of running a negative, not so sure he is a bet against based on the thoro-pattern alone. However, throw in the low odds and likely pace scenario you may very well be showing good judgement in taking that approach.
           
           Perfect Drift has the figures to be right there and has run well at CD. He may be the one today. Good luck.
           

[jimbo66]

Don\'t see it Shanahan.  The horse has run his best races fresh.  I hate chalk, but I can\'t see this horse losing.  Badge of Silver is definitely slower than his reputation, his good race being in the negative 1 range.  Perfect Drift hasn\'t run a race that would win this since the 2003 version of this exact race.  What odds are acceptable on a horse that hasn\'t run well enough to win in 2 years?  4-1 is not even close enough.  

Not a good betting race at all and very surprising to see it as the ROTW as there are a lot of interesting races this week.  Look at the conclusion that JB or Allan came to, the top 4 weights are the best with Saint Liam looking the best.  Saint Liam 6-5, unbettable.  Badge of Silver maybe 9-5, an underlay.  Perfect Drift 4-1, unbettable.  Presidential Affair, maybe 5-1, and unlikely.  Single SL in the NTRA pick 4 and look for value elsewhere.

Spa, don\'t mean to be sarcastic, but your post is an example of what has changed with this board in the past 6 months (for the worse).  What logic or what in the world would lead you to conclude that Saint Liam over the 2nd, 3rd and 4th choices, would be an overlay in the Superfecta?  Or are you just posting for the sake of posting?  

[kev]

P.Drift will take alot of money in this race. Might see SL go off at 6-5 and PD 2-1/5-2, B.O.Silver might go up to 3-1 or so. This is a race where I\'ll either will pass or bet a little something on Eurosilver might get around 15-1 on him.

[davidrex]

     Gouldings Green under a box of P/Drift,Badge,Liam,

     Put a little on him in 3rd hole

     Liam on top...w/Drift...Badge.w/Goulding..w/all

      Goulding under w/all for a deuce!

     Strictly a money play!!

            PARTYpokerON!

[J-DUB]

      Call me crazy, my wife does, but Colonial Colony could be a party crasher. If not for the win, at least on the exotic tickets. A pattern that suggests a forward move is coming, a break in the weights, a lively pace to run at, he\'s ran well at CD, real nice odds and he\'s gone negative before when he jumps up. What\'s not to like?

 May be a stretch to expect him to defeat SL, who is the most likely winner, but CC has a shot today to break up a chalk exacta and tri. I will have him on my tickets and after all this hyperbole a small win wager.