Saturday Undercard at Bel

[richiebee]

Good looking card, just looking at the Graded stakes:

Race 6 True North G2. Looks wide open, 12 runners entered.

Race 7  Just A Game G2. Wonder Again returns, packs 121, may not like rock hard
turf.

Race 8  Riva Ridge G2. Lost in Fog, enjoy the show. Now we know that D Wayne was prepping Going Wild for this race in the Derby and Preakness.

Race 9  Brooklyn G2. I assume Funny Cide will be overbet. Not really a top notch G2 with 3 other NY Breds entered (Spite The Devil, Chowder\'s First, Rogue Agent).

Race 10 Manhattan G1. 11 entered on the inner turf. Artie Schiller is the target at even or 6/5.

If all of these races are part of the Pick 6, I might be inclined to single LITF and Afleet Alex, and try to beat favorites Funny Cide, Wonder Again and Artie Schiller.

Over/ Under Belmont Park attendance? I think they will draw 65,000. The predicted heat and humidity may cost them 10,000 people.

The last Belmont Stakes I attended was Colonial Affair\'s victory, avenging his father\'s defeat at Belmont in 1981. Colonial Affair\'s rider, Julie Krone, became the first female to win a Triple Crown race.

I was thinking about Julie Krone with all the publicity surrounding Danica Patrick, the female Indy car driver. My opinion of Julie Krone was that she was a fierce competitor who was a bit over- rated as a rider. She remains, however, the only female athlete that competed successfully with males at the top level of a professional sport for an extended period of time.

Personal Note: If you put an outlet mall at the finish line at Indy, I think my wife could give Ms. Patrick a good run for the money.

[jimbo66]

Richie Bee,

Did you look at the card in detail yet (as in handicap it?)

On number power, you could single Afleet Alex, I guess.  

But the other two singes you name, are dicey at best.

Lost in the Fog is a bet against, especially at 3-5 or 1-2.  He is spotting weight and is already 4 lenghts slower than the horse who will win.

Artie Schiller can\'t be even money or 6-5 in that race, if he is, then he is a GREAT bet against.  He is the 3rd fastest on the numbers and will be trying a distance that is probably not his best.  

My point is that there are lots of bettable races on SAturday.  When I first saw the entries, I thought there were 2 or 3 races where the favorites were unbeatable.  But after handicapping last night, they are all competitive races.  

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- I\'m with you about the right bet in the Riva Ridge, but he\'s still coming off two really big efforts close together, and the testing may or may not be an issue. I make them co-likely to win, with one the obvious bet at the price. Do agree that anyone else would be a big stretch.

This is a pretty interesting card, alright, I\'m going to try to save money by not getting there for the first few races (plus I could use the sleep. The whole industry is in town, and if you want a laugh, talk to someone who was at the OTB \"fashion show\' the other night). I\'m in 3P, row H, if anyone is around.

[richiebee]

Jimbo:

   Sorry you may have mis- read my post. I listed Artie Schiller as one
of 3 favorites (along with Funny Cide and Wonder Again) that I would try to
beat. I can probably survive your criticism of my posts, but it will be more
fun for both of us if you read them carefully.

   The Pick 6 I proposed will not be a large bet, but rather a way of making
the best of a scenario which is usually very bad for me--short priced favorites
winning. I can certainly understand taking a shot against LITF at 7/8s on a track
he\'s never run on at a short price and carrying top weight.

   Unfortunately, the disadvantage of multi- race wagers is that pre race paddock
observations are only possible in the first leg, and I don\'t know which animals
may be adversely affected by heat/humidity.

[jimbo66]

RichieBee,

Didn\'t mean to criticize your post.  As I re-read what I wrote, I could see that it comes across that way.

I was just trying to make the point that the card is pretty good when you take a CLOSE look at the races. I originally thought this could be a pick-4 where you bet 1x1x1x5 or something like that, singling Afleet Alex, Artie Schiller and Lost in the Fog.

But I read your post correctly.  I am just saying that Artie Schiller won\'t be 6-5 in that field and as such he might not be as strong a \"bet against\".  At 5-2, you might still bet against him, but the value won\'t be as good.  That\'s all.

[richiebee]

Jimbo:

  Looking at the Riva Ridge, the fastest horse in the race has great numbers from out of town tracks where I have been reluctant to accept some of the fast numbers I have seen. Case in point for me is Contrast in the first race on Saturday, who got a TG# of 2 and a 105 Beyer after breaking her maiden in 1:11.84.

  My wise guy horse in the RR may be Survivalist, who exhibits the Pair/Pair/ Pair pattern that some lunatic was raving about on the board last night. His last race was ugly (will help the price), and he ran a good one at Bel as a 2YO.

  As to Artie Schiller, I do not think he has the best chance of winning; I think that with his 4/5 record at Bel and the fact that he is being ridden by a rider who is currently riding the Bel grass courses as well as anyone, he will be a short priced, beatable favorite.

[RICH]

In the Manhattan I can\'t get past SAINT STEPHEN at 12-1. I like the inside post and the weight break, that pair of 2\'s look strong, with a thoro pattern at about 60% for at least a pair up. Looks tough at a price

[mikemd]

i love the undercard.  both from a betting standpoint and as a fan.

egghead vs. lost in the fog

one of my favorite horses running, evening attire

an amazing pick six lineup

several favorites i think will be highly overbet

I\'ve lost track of how many times I\'ve bet against Funny Cide in the last year or so.  The problem tomorrow is that even though he\'ll probably be overbet, he actually has a very good chance of winning this time.  

I\'ve lost track of how many times I\'ve bet against Funny Cide in the last year or so.  The problem tomorrow is that even though he\'ll probably be overbet, he actually has a very good chance of winning this time.