Pomeroy

[HP]

Class,

You cashed Bandini in the Blue Grass?  I remember you saying something about a price there (you said something about getting off the couch for...6/1 or something?).  I think Bandini was 3/1 or 7/2 in the Blue Grass.  You bet him?  Maybe I\'m remembering this wrong?  

You named three horses, all from the same barn.  One was short, just like I said (Bandini), you missed one despite your incredible insight (Flower Alley - but you get some credit anyway since you only made a betting error!) and you cashed one decent (CSilver).  

I understand you have keen insight here regarding Pletcher (I\'ve read this from you at least a few thousand times now) but I think my point stands.  What do you do when Pletcher doesn\'t have a horse in the race?  The horses you described will get bet!  Name a trainer who manages to sneak this great lightly raced stock past the public on a regular basis.  Who are you talking about?  

No one said it was JUST about finding a big price to cash, but yeah, that is probably the most important thing to me.  

As for \"understanding the actual chances of various horses to win,\" I think that is what everyone is trying to do.  

I just KNOW you are going to get in the last word...  Please don\'t repeat yourself about Pletcher if you\'re going to post (your Pletcher examples are not really that compelling! -- you hit ONE horse at a decent price).  Give another example so we can learn from you.  

HP

HP,

I didn\'t bet the BG. What I was saying about Bandini is that I appreciated the fact that he was highly likely to improve. So when I made my odds line for the race, my estimate of his chances kept me OFF other horses in the race that I might have otherwise been tempted to bet.

The trainers that are getting the best young stock varies over the years as does their style of training, but it\'s not so difficult to keep on top of that.

In general, what I am saying is that just because the general public tends to bet  well bred lightly raced horses from the very best barns, that does not mean you should exclude that information from your analysis of the race.  Sometimes the public doesn\'t fully appreciate these things on the board.

That goes double for an improving workout line.

That\'s one of the few applications of WOs that has served me well over the years. Those really explosive moves forward among young horses are sometimes tipped off in the WO line. I tend to focus on the longer WOs (5F and longer).

As a recent example, I couldn\'t have come up with Giacomo as more than a live exotic horse no matter how many times I tried, but he had a great WO line coming into the Derby. Had I played superfectas, I believe I would have used him 3rd and 4th.



Post Edited (06-02-05 15:56)

[TGJB]

Some of the earlier stuff on this string was very good. I also want to add the obvious-- the Thoro-Patterns were made to help address these exact types of questions. You do need to look closely to see how much the horse in question differs from the parameters we use (spacing, distance, surface and trainer switches, extremeness of tops and bounces). But in terms of JUST pattern, those first two in the Derby had two of the strongest (maybe the two strongest) TPs in the race.

TGJB,

At some point I think you should spend a little time expanding on applications of  the breeding stats and improvement potential for young horses.

[TGJB]

Actually, that\'s the kind of thing we should throw open to the board-- there are a lot of people who use the pedigree stuff day to day.

[Upper Nile]

Your right Jerry, Looking back now Giacomo\'s Thoro-Pattern jumps out, over 65% to pair up or run a new top. With just as much of a chance to run a new top as pair up.  As for Closing Argument would not the Thoro-Pattern not apply due to the base top having been last Nov. and the 2 two month layoffs between the pair-up\'s of the new top?

[TGJB]

When we do the studies, all the races have to be within 42 days of the next, no surface or trainer switches, all sprints or all routes. Some horses you come up with are \"pure\"-- they fit all those criteria. Many do not-- so what I do is try and figure out to what degree and in what way the differences matter. For example-- if a trainer change is not to or from a move-up guy and/or appears to have had no significant effect on the horse\'s performance, I ignore it.

 On the other hand, an average \"top\" is probably 2-3 points, depending on age-- if I\'m looking at one off a 5 point top, I take that into consideration, and sometimes how fast the number is. Bellamy Road\'s Derby TP would have been the same if the last had been a neg 2 or neg 5, but his chance of pairing the number would not have been the same.

[Saddlecloth]

I dont remember Giacomo\'s preakness figure but I am guessing it was a pair, which gives him a pair-top-pair, which on the thoro patterns is about 54% to pair or run a top.....but in my thinking I would imagine the last two races would take somehting out of him and three weeks wont be enough and an off or x is coming at low odds.  

Afleet Alex has a strange pattern for me, looks like x-top-x-pair (i think from memory), and I have no idea what the thoro pattern is on that but I bet its not good to pair + top, and he will be even money.