SCOTT LAKE

[jbelfior]

So far, winless in 17 starts at the Belmont spring meet. Was second leading trainer at this point last year. Must have forgotten how to train.


PETER PAN:

What to make of MR.SWORD? TGJB made an excellent point in one of his posts this week.

This stable is impatient and one can only assume they stopped on MR. SWORD for reasons other than to simply point him here. On the other hand, if we give them more credit than they probably deserve, he\'s an excellent value play in the exactas.
I\'m thinking he\'ll relish the one turn, especially if that middle move is there tomorrow.


Good Luck,
Joe B.



Post Edited (05-27-05 09:56)

[richiebee]

JB:

  I know you follow NYRA closely, and always appreciate your insight. Scott Lake is certainly a move up trainer, but its too early in the meet to make judgments.

  H Allen Jerkens, 2/21, C McGaughey, 1/18, Kiaran McLaughlin, 1/24, Richard Violette, 1/20. By the end of the Belmont meet you would expect that these guys, and Scott Lake, will all be in the top 12- 15 trainers at the meet.

  I really appreciate your dogged pursuit of Mr. Sword; I hope your persistence pays off. I don\'t know what to think of Pedersen. Paragallo really hasn\'t given her much to work with. It seems like Paragallo breeds Artax about 100 times a year and she gets to train whatever he can\'t sell.

  I know Mr Sword worked fast over at AQ,JB, but he worked 57.4 at Kee 4 days before his Blue Grass clunker.



Post Edited (05-27-05 11:22)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

jbelfior wrote:

> So far, winless in 17 starts at the Belmont spring meet. Was
> second leading trainer at this point last year. Must have
> forgotten how to train.
>
>
> PETER PAN:
>
> What to make of MR.SWORD? TGJB made an excellent point in one
> of his posts this week.
>
> This stable is impatient and one can only assume they stopped
> on MR. SWORD for reasons other than to simply point him here.
> On the other hand, if we give them more credit than they
> probably deserve, he\'s an excellent value play in the exactas.
> I\'m thinking he\'ll relish the one turn, especially if that
> middle move is there tomorrow.
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.

That Lake Stat is interesting. Makes you wonder if the S Men are being a bit more cautious at Belmont? Too early to tell.

The Peter Pan is an interesting race. The TFigs should stand users in good stead. These are New York animals for the most part and though they are in \"improve fast\" mode, Tgraph is gonna have a good handle on them. Theres three out of circuit horses to consider though.

Gotta agree with Joe B. that Mr. Sword is something of an enigma. The inside was quicksand at Keeneland that day, but he stopped even worse than tougher footing would warrant. Had a fair amount of time off and per the DRF didn\'t breeze for darn near a month after the incident. (Note it was a heckuva good breeze though) What was going on? That two turn inner tube race sure makes it look like that despite his sprinty breeding he\'ll go a one turn 9 marks. He seems to like Mr. Arroyo too.

Robador makes a long trip off a good restricted class race. He beat a large field and is nicely bred.

Golden Man-Dutrow wanted this guy in the Preakness in the worst way.

------------

Anyone notice how Chekhov is the only horse in the race not on Lasix. I don\'t know, if I\'m an owner I want my horse running on drugs. Especially every legal one.

Sir Greeley is an interesting animal as well. What woke him up? Did they get him off the innertube or did they geld him? Note the call from the 2 hole with Hill as jockey \"3 Wide\", then note the lack of wide called from the 6 hole under Coa. If J.Jerkins could use Hill and get 5 pounds do you think he would?



Post Edited (05-27-05 11:51)

[jbelfior]

The way they handle things at Pimlico, not suprised Dutrow wanted GOLDEN MAN in the Preakness.

Funny comment from Bill Scheft in SI this week...Scheft says the Preakness was delayed for over 16 minutes as the handlers had trouble loading all of Nick Zito\'s excuses.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[gvido]

At Aqu outer:

Shug: 15-6-3-1

H.A. Jerkens: 52-9-10-11

McLaughlin: 49-8-7-5

Lake: 59-12-11-8

Violette: ?

I guess you can\'t keep winning them all, lol.

[richiebee]

Chuckles:

 You preach the virtue of the TGs. Do you ever read them? The TG running line on Sir Greeley the day Eibar (Mr. Inside) Coa rode him was \"close up OUTSIDE, rallied inside stretch, dug in gamely inside\"; the day Channing (Mr. Outside)(I\'m gonna have to ride at Saratoga against the heavyheads because Mollica\'s my agent now)Hill rode him the TG running line was \"close up INSIDE, 3 wide move into stretch, drew away, driving\".

 Have Uncle Jerry send you some product, get a glove, and get in the game.

 Peter Pan, IMO, 3 horse race, all the logical suspects:

CHEKHOV: Really moving forward, really short price w/Stevens. If the Tabor gang has an eye on the Belmont Stakes, is Chekhov really cranked for this one? Interesting breeding note: according to TG, Chekhov\'s dam, In My Cap, has been bred to Swain, Unbridled, Seeking the Gold, Mr. P, Forty Niner, Mr P, Mr P, Fappiano and Secretariat. 8 of these 9 foals made it to the races and won, none were stakes winners.

GOLDEN MAN: Never liked Suave Prospect or his daddy Fortunate Prospect (a graded stake quality animal in the mid 80s trained by L Jolley as I recall) past 7/8s; but this gelding has already won at 1 mile(twice), 1- 1/16th, and 1-1/8. Similar improvement to Chekhov with added time to recover. Unlike Chekhov, not likely to be heading for Belmont Stakes. My biggest knock-- has never raced or trained over the Belmont strip and has never won a 1 turn race.

Dutrow\'s last weekend as a trainer for 60 days. Can he pull off a stakes double? I
actually like his Met Mile chances better than this one.

Editorial Note: Dutrow was suspended FIVE YEARS for using marijuana in the late 80s; know Nelson Rockefeller was long dead by then, but his spirit was kept alive by the New York State Racing and Wagering Board.

SIR GREELEY: Triple Crown nominated, but don\'t think he\'s being pointed to Bel Stakes; maybe J Jerkens has inherited his father\'s disdain for Triple Crown races. The only triple digit Beyer in the race, but numberwise the TG gang was not so impressed. Turf to dirt always works in my book (J Jerkens has a 28% strike rate going turf to dirt, 39% of his animals post a top on the turf to dirt move) and this one can sit off Reverberate or take control early. My choice and a strong bet if 3/1 or above.

\"Wise Guy\" horse: Reverberate has run against Rockport Harbor, Bandini and Noble Causeway, 2/2 at Belmont.



Post Edited (05-27-05 14:51)

[jbelfior]

richiebee--

I always respect your posts; have to disagree with you with LOVE OF MONEY. Can\'t see him getting the lead with that bunch and it\'s doubtful he can track the speed and hold off the others. Good luck, anyway.

As for the PETER PAN: I\'ll key MR. SWORD with ORATORY and CHEKHOV.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

richiebee wrote:

> Chuckles:
>
>  You preach the virtue of the TGs. Do you ever read them? Hill rode him the TG running line was \"close up
> INSIDE, 3 wide move into stretch, drew away, driving\".
>
>  Have Uncle Jerry send you some product, get a glove, and get
> in the game.

Tgraph shuld be the last and most important course in anyone\'s handicapping education. Post graduation, alumni may not always be familiar with the University\'s wide on a day to day basis. If TGraphs wide call is different from the wide call of the other p.p.s, you have to defer to TGraph.

However, the salient issue here is the racetrack \"hack\" Channing Hill, who despite getting 5 pounds in almost all his races is now winning at only about 9 percent. When the bug is gone, thankfully he\'ll go back to Montana, or wherever he belongs to try ranching or whatever job riding horses poorly he can get. Its good to be on the best horse and thats the ONLY horse he wins on.  A minute thirty four is a long time for Channing Hill to not make at least a couple of mistakes and thats why hes not riding Sir Greeley. J.Jerkens disposed of Hill, certainly we can.

Not sure you\'re 3 horse race is in the cards. Sir Greeley certainly merits consideration without Hill. Theres 3 other horses that look competitive, but if TGraph says Chekhov, Golden Man and Sir Greeley are tough customers thats hard to argue with.

If you haven\'t seen the closeup of the Preakness top of stretch incident, this is a pretty good view.

http://espn.go.com/horse/triplecrown05/index.html

On the right margin you\'ll have to click on \"ESPN MOTION, Preakness Stakes\".

After the Pop Up window loads, scroll up to a piece by Moss titled: \"How Amazing was Afleet Alex\'s Preakness\".

Note the vicious windmill windup Dominguez lays into Scrappy. The horse has gotten distracted when getting the lead and that was definitely an attention getter. Didn\'t quite work out the way he planned. Note also the stretch wrap up ride.

[richiebee]

Chuckles:
 YOU are the best.

  \"It\'s good to be on the best horse,
   and that\'s the only horse Hill wins
   on\"
 
 Alumni of TGU should also check daily results. Hill\'s 2 winners at Belmont Thursday paid $20.80 (second longest shot on the board)and $31.00 (longest shot on the board). He had 3 other mounts on the day.

 The best or worst thing that happened to Channing Hill is that Drew Mollica, TV personality and jockey agent, now has CH\'s book. Where CH should have been heading to Monmouth to enjoy the kind of success Rajiv Maragh enjoyed last summer, it is likely he will be headed to the Spa to ride against the top guns. I hope he can learn from the experience, because the bug has traditionally gone hungry up there.



Post Edited (05-27-05 15:28)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

richiebee wrote:

> Chuckles:
>  YOU are the best.

The best handicapper? Thats debatable. The best at 3YO\'s? I\'m competent. Jerkens would ride me. This is about the jockey.
 
>   \"It\'s good to be on the best horse,
>    and that\'s the only horse Hill wins
>    on\"
>  
>  Alumni of TGU should also check daily results. Hill\'s 2
> winners at Belmont Thursday paid $20.80 (second longest shot on
> the board)and $31.00 (longest shot on the board). He had 3
> other mounts on the day.

Richie if hes a family member, we can drop it, hes a .09% rider with serious weight, a twenty buck mutual is break even for this guy. He\'s changed his style a little lately, hes trying to run and gun, but its like a big two year old trying to run quick, hes all over the place.

Other than his good day yesterday (Weight)he won on two favorites in the last week getting huge (weight). If you\'re gonna get 15-1 on a horse with a shot, o.k. but you can\'t seriously believe this guy has the type of talent you require from a high percentage bug rider.

>  The best or worst thing that happened to Channing Hill is that
> Drew Mollica, TV personality and jockey agent, now has CH\'s
> book. Where CH should have been heading to Monmouth to enjoy
> the kind of success Rajiv Maragh enjoyed last summer, it is
> likely he will be headed to the Spa to ride against the top
> guns. I hope he can learn from the experience, because the bug
> has traditionally gone hungry up there.
>

How much bug does he even have left? Can\'t be much. He\'s fine at real big odds with the weight and a screaming monkey ride.

[brokerstip]

Scott Lake couldn\'t hit the board in a \"non winners of a ham sandwich\" until he got his chemistry degree.

[MO]

Geez, I\'m getting old. Thought Channing was a girl. Anyhow, he\'s in good hands with Drew who has had a few good riders in his day, like Chris Antley.

[richiebee]

Chuckles:

  I am 6 foot 3 and tack 235 pounds. There are no jockeys in my family tree.

  The kid has the bug until December or January, if I\'m not mistaken

\"Golden Man-Dutrow wanted this guy in the Preakness in the worst way.\"

The day Coin Silver won his stake I posted that if I owned Golden Man I would immediately start looking for a Preakness prep for him.  If you watch his allowance win, Golden Man was tons the best and visually very impressive.

GM is also the type of horse that Dutrow often excels with. He had him for 2 months before moving him forward big time. This type often has another move forward in it second time out instead of going backwards the way you might expect. (anyone else he\'s probably a toss)

Unfortunately, there are a lot of high quality lightly raced horses in the PP. Any of the others could also move forward a great deal. Plus, there\'s very little early speed in the race. The possible slow pace scenario makes this race very difficult to handicap and it will probably make it even tougher on GM.

Sir Greeley is faster than these and he may wind up on the lead in a comfortable pace.