Fantastic Alex - Noble Scrappy - The rest suck

[gowand]

bally, check the archives 5/2/05.  I was defending alex at that time, not because I thought he was the fastest horse but I am amazed at his ability to run in traffic.  I still am not crazy about rose.  It was the horse who saved the day today not the jockey.  The most amazing part was the way he was almost immediately balanced and back on stride after the tangle.  This is what makes him a unique horse.

[Bally Ache]

Gowand

Read my post at the beginning of Odds & Ends.  I don\'t know if you can get the iso replay that I refer to now but if you can you\'ll see that J. Rose clearly outrode Bailey today.

High Fly wasn\'t going to be a factor anyway but then I\'m not one of those who was supporting him and you can check that in the archives too, going all the way back to right after the Fla. Derby.

As I said then, the only reason Bailey was on this horse in the first place is, he couldn\'t find anything better.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Bally Ache wrote:

> You could go to the archives (Mar. 19 I think-the date of the
> Rebel).  At least some of you were suggesting Alex should go
> back to Del.  He was just a sprinter it was said.  Didn\'t much
> care for J. Rose either as I recall.
>
> Well, they\'re never as good as they look on their best day and
> never as bad as they look on their worst.  If you remember
> Smarty\'s Preakness from last year you\'ll know Alex is no lock
> in the Belmont.
>
>   The nice thing is, a tragedy was narrowly averted and the
> best horse still won the race.
>

Rose has given Alex some hair raising rides. Alex was making an awe inspiring move on that last turn and had his momentum essentially slowed to even with Scrappy T, but then he rerallied to recover most of it. Rose was being very aggressive there. (Can\'t fault him for that.) The Champagne, Breeders Cup Juvenile and Ark rides were quizzical to say the least. In the Preakness again Rose almost got him in trouble, though perhaps due to no fault of his own. Some of us did call for Bailey, it doesnt mean we didn\'t think highly of Alex.

Alex was running a good Rebel and when he hit the aerobic mark he quit. Shortly after the race they scoped him and discovered a significant lung infection. The question was did he have it going in or did he develop it post race? Some interpreted it as him having it going in. An existing lung infection explained him stopping and was a factor in foundation for the Derby. The Ark made most long time handicappers realize the horse was special. But Silver is right, some of those Saratoga races tipped the hand. He\'s been right there in every race except the lung infection race. Thats why he was favored. Anyone can pick a favorite, but sometimes the favorite is the best horse.

Still congrats to those that hit that Derby, that was monumental.

Alex is the most tractable of the recent \"phenoms\" trying for the Belmont. That should play in his favor, but certainly 12 marks is tough going for the modern thoroughbred. Also Rose has probably not run many 12 mark races at Elmont. That was certainly a factor last year. Ritchey needs to sit down with him and watch a thousand films so he both stays in contact and doesnt move too soon.

[Bally Ache]

Chuckles

I had Alex in the Sanford to which you refer elsewhere.  I knew that provincial New Yorkers would underrate him.  He paid $8 when he should have paid $5.  That\'s how far back I go with this horse.  Now I\'m being preached to about him by people who only recently discovered him (I\'m not referring to you here).

Here\'s what I see.  After the Fla Derby you all liked High Fly.  After the Wood you all liked Bellamy Road.  After the Blue Grass you all liked Bandini.  Now you all like Alex.

Well, I like him too.  I bet him in the Derby.  He didn\'t win.  Rose put him in position to win and he got outfinished by a 50-1 shot and a 70-1 shot neither of which are probably ever going to the Hall of Fame.  

Keep it all in perspective.  You can\'t assume the last race is definitive.

[gowand]

\"people who recently discovered him\"....are you kidding?  The fact that he was 3-1 in the Sanford should tell you you that you were not the first person to discover this horse.  I also note you were not touting your Sanford score two weeks ago.  gimme a break.

[davidrex]

     b. ache,
Talk til ur blue ..you can never disuade majority of NYRA degenerates of being steinbrenner fans.
Best way to deal w/ this territorial racism is to keep cashing those overlays!
     PARTYpokerON!

[Michael D.]

bally,
go through the archives, that\'s a good idea. let us know how many horses you have posted on pre-race that won. after you do that, take a look through the archives and find posts of others who you mock. find out how many winners they have posted on. i think you will find that others have posted many winners, and you have posted nothing but a six buck horse and a lot of crap. your preaching is the most ridiculous thing i have ever seen on this board.

[Michael D.]

jim,
it\'s a horrible crop of three year old routers. seems like they get shorter and shorter every year. don\'t give up yet though. AA looks about as good as funny cide and smarty did heading into the belmont. i\'ll tell you this though - it\'s going to take a new shooter for me to get interested. the peter pan always produces a few belmont starters. let\'s see what happens next w/e.

[Bally Ache]

Gowand

I started posting here in defense of Afleet Alex (and Rose) after the Rebel.  Now that\'s a fact.  I mentioned the Sanford to show when I started following the horse. It was about a six horse field with a couple of throwouts so believe me he was an overlay at $8.  I\'m certainly not bragging about an $8. winner from last summer.

Michael D.

Is it my job to tout horses for you?

The problem with forums like this is nobody ever convinces anyone of anything.  It\'s pointless.

[jimbo66]

Bally Ache,

Are you sure it was Afleet Alex you have been touting since the Sanford?  The Sanford was a full field of 11 horses, not a six horse field with a couple throwouts.......

You are getting a reaction on this board for the lousy attitude.  You picked the winner, congratulations, be happy you cashed.  Many didn\'t cash.

To start with rubbish like \"you all liked High Fly, you all like Bellamy Road, now you all like Alex.....\"   What is your point?  That when a horse runs an impressive race, more bettors are likely to tout them next time out?  Great point, unfortunately everybody else in the world is aware of that point.

[Michael D.]

bally,
you are preaching like you belong in the handicappers hall of fame because you have posted on one $6.80 winner. i don\'t want picks from anyone, but your commenting on the bad picks of others when you provide just about nil in terms of constructive handicapping opinions is absurd. get it?

and BTW,
it is possible to convince people of things on this board. simply buy TG, analyze a race, post some thoughts, and see how things turn out. if you are right, you will convince everyone. if you are wrong, you still might get a decent handicapping discussion going and learn something.



Post Edited (05-23-05 10:39)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

This board is the most informative source online for evaluating the big races. It starts with the TFig. We are all investors, but its like E.F. Hutton, \"When Thorograph talks, people listen\". We may invest differently, but we consider the expertise. Investing is tricky business.

The generous host wants us to stay on point with the source. Theres a lot to figure and many times it trickles or even waterfalls down to other topics and considerations.

Everyone is gonna make mistakes. Its not an exact science and the validation process is difficult to say the least. Its poor form to criticize anothers selections after the fact, but no one really does that. We are all trying to evaluate where our opinions and the horses stand. It gets heated when theres money at stake. No one likes to lose, but theres many gentlemen here.

Bally Ache has taken some strong positions. One was that High Fly was a bad bet. The Preakness result sure looks like he was borne out on that one. He thought that Consolidator was a horse coming up to the big dance the right way until injured. Well, he did humble the Derby winner, though his prefered pace style might have compromised him in the Derby. We\'ll never know for sure.

Michael said something noteworthy here and though I consider myself a very good 3YO handicapper, I\'ll try to focus on TFig analysis in the future in the indicated races.

Michael D. wrote:

> it is possible to convince people of things on this board.
> simply buy TG, analyze a race, post some thoughts, and see how
> things turn out. if you are right, you will convince everyone.
> if you are wrong, you still might get a decent handicapping
> discussion going and learn something.

[davidrex]

     How bout that!
C[m]tc is acting as mediator for everyone dumping on b.ache.
     Etiquette at the track was covered in a Beyer book...are we to follow the same rules and conditions?..or forge a new set of decorum dedicated to anonymity
     Some day we\'ll have a device that will skip over [automatically] unwanted board messeges,much like a vcr skips over commercials.Till then its the old... if you don\'t care for whats being said...DON\'T READ IT!

     PARTYpokerON!

[TGJB]

Well guys, I\'ve fired a couple of warning shots recently, but it seems not too many have paid attention, so now that things are quieting down around here I\'m going to start policing this board a little bit. This ain\'t the place for self involved posts (except mine), it ain\'t a social chat room, it ain\'t a place to have personal fights (again except mine, and yes, I agree that the provocation can be extreme-- problem is that retaliation doesn\'t decrease it, in fact the opposite. I\'ll handle it).

It\'s also not a general handicapping board, it\'s a TG site. If someone wants to post alternative handicapping theories, it\'s okay if they do it briefly, cogently, not redboarding, and not repetitively.

The Board police are in the house.