Lou Raffetto, Spot Tester

[clark]

Jerry,

   I have been a TG user for about three years now, and I have a great respect for your product.  I was a DRf only user prior to being turned on to your sheets.  Your product gave me profitable information about this game that I love.

 But things have changed now.  The figures that horses have run before are increasingly less reliable predictors of how they will run today.  The most important decisions a handicapper in todays game has to make are 1.  Were this horses past performances aided by performance enhancing substances, and 2. Will the horse recieve performance enhancing substances today.

 I grew up at the track (Beulah Park and Latonia) by my fathers side with a $10 budget that he alotted me to make WPS bets.  The joy of the game was and has always been finding out whether or not I could process the available information better than the guy next to me, and make it profitable.  That takes skill.  The game today takes a lot less skill, and a lot more luck. In a fair--or closer to fair-- game, your product is invaluable; well worth the $25 sticker.  In todays game, the expenditure is much harder to justify.

 I consider myself a rational person.  As such I struggle with my irrational activity of wagering resources on events which I know have a high probability of being fixed.  But I know why I do it.  I do it for the same reason the other rational people who post here do it.  I love it,  it\'s in my blood. I could stop but I really don\'t want to.

 Which leads to the truth of the matter.  Right now, Jeff Mullins is right!  We are all suckers, plain and simple.  The question is whether or not we are going to do anything about it.  Do we the bettors have any voice in this thing?  Me being the small fish that I am, not really.  But I am sure Jerry that you know the biggest fish.  The ones who could possibly start to effect some changes.  But, who knows, maybe the biggest fish are privvy to the info necessary to be profitable in today\'s game and have no motivation to seek any changes.  That would be too bad.

 All I know is a no nonsence, no tolerance, straight forward system needs to be put in place across the country very soon, because I am far too intelligent to remain a perpetual sucker, no matter how much I love this game.



Post Edited (05-18-05 10:40)

[TGJB]

Clark, I would very much like to see this as a letter to the editor of DRF or Bloodhorse. They are much more likely to publish it if you take out the TG references.

[bloodline bob]

Ok here's the contrarian opinion. IMHO this site is way over the top on the drug issue. The prevalent assumption here of some murky vet with some magic \"juice\" controlling some group of \"super trainers\" would make for a good novel but it borders on paranoia.

It\'s all just sheer speculation and I think largely unfounded.

"Juice" implies a hop. What if the juice for Scott Lake is myectomy (fix throat) and deep tissue massage as he has publicly stated. What if for Dutrow he has Allday fix them behind through internal blisters or injecting stifles or whatever (as he explained in DRF article).  What if Frankel\'s thing is he just doesn\'t run them until they are right, buys domestic horses cleverly and knows better than anyone what to do with a Euro import (as he has been doing for 20 years).  

It\'s called horsemanship.

Either it's that or it's one vet with some magic juice that he can use with impunity and nobody else can figure out what it is.  The logic that every time someone has success it's because they are simply the most daring and crooked is IMO the height of cynicism.

Don't get me wrong I know there are cheaters out there and I am with you on the Maryland thing and tightening up the testing to punish transgressors and restore public confidence. It's just not as bad as you think. It's not that easy to hop a horse. And it usually doesn't work.

The recent press has been centered around milkshakes. Milkshakes have been around for 30 years.  It's like a marathon runner eating a candy bar during the race. It is right to outlaw them but it\'s not magic juice.

Dutrow\'s suspension was for a \"caine\", like Novocain which is a local anesthetic and the first thing they test for (so that can\'t be what he\'s \"using\") plus clenbuterol which has often been legal in certain jurisdictions. Hardly \"juice\". Most \"hops\" through the years are really just pain killers like Sublimase which allow class horses to do their thing.  

Have you ever noticed how the super trainers' horses look better than anyone else's?  How could a hop do that?

JB - You have a great product and provide wonderful insights to bettors. However it seems the premise behind your thinking lately is that horses are getting faster because they are hopped. The thing is you have scant proof of either.  I find it amazing that you couldn't analyze the derby until you find out where Afleet Alex took a bath! It's so far over the top it's laughable. Handicapping races is hard enough without contortions over figuring out who does or doesn't' have the \"juice\".

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

bloodline bob wrote:

> Ok here's the contrarian opinion. IMHO this site is way over
> the top on the drug issue.

Personally, I believe this site is the Advant Garde on this issue. Anyone that has followed the races closely the last five years has to know theres been a climatic shift to a few trainers that employ the same suspect Vet.

>The prevalent assumption here of
> some murky vet with some magic \"juice\" controlling some group
> of \"super trainers\" would make for a good novel but it borders
> on paranoia.

Sometimes novels are biographys or non fiction.

> It\'s all just sheer speculation and I think largely unfounded.

They are testing all over the jurisdictions to get a handle on this. Drugs are standard, what is out of the Grade I routine is \"drugs off\" and that is the current advant garde issue.


> "Juice" implies a hop. What if the juice for Scott Lake is
> myectomy (fix throat) and deep tissue massage as he has
> publicly stated. What if for Dutrow he has Allday fix them
> behind through internal blisters or injecting stifles or
> whatever (as he explained in DRF article).  What if Frankel\'s
> thing is he just doesn\'t run them until they are right, buys
> domestic horses cleverly and knows better than anyone what to
> do with a Euro import (as he has been doing for 20 years).  
>
> It\'s called horsemanship.

No, its not horsemanship. Theres at least two dozen better horsemen that the guys you\'ve mentioned. They\'d accomplish more if they decided to cheat.
 
> Either it's that or it's one vet with some magic juice that he
> can use with impunity and nobody else can figure out what it
> is.  The logic that every time someone has success it's because
> they are simply the most daring and crooked is IMO the height
> of cynicism.

The issue is that the substances are not on the controlled list or are not detectable. Or, at least to this point they haven\'t been.

> Don't get me wrong I know there are cheaters out there and I am
> with you on the Maryland thing and tightening up the testing to
> punish transgressors and restore public confidence. It's just
> not as bad as you think.

Its much worse than we even talk about. Its sickening to debate that deeply.

>It's not that easy to hop a horse. And
> it usually doesn't work.

Granted, you still need a decent horse to win a Grade I. Drugs or not.

> The recent press has been centered around milkshakes.
> Milkshakes have been around for 30 years.  It's like a marathon
> runner eating a candy bar during the race. It is right to
> outlaw them but it\'s not magic juice.

Yes, every substance given to a horse to make it run faster is illegal. Once identified it is added to the controlled list.

> Dutrow\'s suspension was for a \"caine\", like Novocain which is a
> local anesthetic and the first thing they test for (so that
> can\'t be what he\'s \"using\") plus clenbuterol which has often
> been legal in certain jurisdictions. Hardly \"juice\". Most
> \"hops\" through the years are really just pain killers like
> Sublimase which allow class horses to do their thing.

The reason so called \"pain and sickness\" medications must clear a horses system below certain concentrations on race day is because there is concern they may enhance performance in higher levels.

> Have you ever noticed how the super trainers' horses look
> better than anyone else's?  How could a hop do that?

Thats an enormous supposition. Oxygen certainly could be a factor, without acquiescing to your theory the supertrainers horses look better.

> JB - You have a great product and provide wonderful insights to
> bettors. However it seems the premise behind your thinking
> lately is that horses are getting faster because they are
> hopped. The thing is you have scant proof of either.  

The proof is in ridiculous performance figures coming from the same group of suspects. If you havne\'t been following the industry lately EVERYONE is finally doing a little something about it.

I find it
> amazing that you couldn't analyze the derby until you find out
> where Afleet Alex took a bath! It's so far over the top it's
> laughable. Handicapping races is hard enough without
> contortions over figuring out who does or doesn't' have the
> \"juice\".

I never understood the significance of the \"Alex bath\" either and if they juiced him they should be ashamed because he fell off 6 points from his prior.

Now the Preakness:

Malibu Moonshine - This trainer is a long time horseman. He\'s a local icon. He\'s got a good hole and if Leatherby thinks this horse belongs here. Who wants to seriously disagree? Big Balloons exotic special.

High Fly - Bailey is helping to cost me money lately. Hime not identifying the pace and bias last was a puzzlement. If Bailey gives him a good ride he should be a factor. Can he win? Not sure yet.

Noble Causeway - Stevens put the big yank on him in the Derby. It absolutely stopped him and maybe stung, maybe not, he just didnt\' want to run from that far behind. They say his breeding is special. Still like High Fly more.

Greeley\'s Galaxy - Didn\'t train well at Churchill pre Derby. Broke like a slug. Ran inside rank and on the bad path early. Bumped viciously late and still kept on. Beaten half a pole but was it that bad? Possible winner.

Scrappy T. - Have liked this horse since horror Whirlaway Trip. Doesnt need the lead. Won\'t be far off of it. Toss Wood, other 2 turn efforts are fine. Can\'t leave out, still deliberating win potential.

Hal\'s Image - Loved his breeder. Old Hal brought his 3/4 brother along this trail. Halo\'s Image is not Jolies Halo though. Maybe a deuce to show for old Hal. Tend to think the family is running him for the old man.

Closing Argument - Well its offical. FREAK. Maybe not Smarty Jones Freak or Ghostsprinter Freak. But FREAK nevertheless. Bear out has to be a concern. Must use though. Can he win? Probably can.

Galloping Grocer- Looks to be on improve again, though restricted class can make a horse look good. Still think this horse has potential to return to form. The question though is what kinda form was that? Favor Scrappy more.

Wilko- Well, that was the last bit of my money he gets. He finished 6 lengths back, but at no time was he ever explosive or showing late stamina. Hes yours.

Sun King- Beaten 15 and 10 lengths respectively in his last two. Zito has brought horses like Louis Quatorze in to win off bad efforts. But this bad? Caught the bias part of the track but after a mile was definitely in \"Chuck it\" mode. Prado scoots. Don\'t like his new \"reserved\" style either, think it discourages him. You can have him.

High Limit- Still believe TGraph scored the Bluegrass closer to precise than anyone else and High Limit, though beaten handily at Keeneland, was the best of the rest by far. Mauled by Flower Alley and Noble Causeway and running on the worst part of the track understandibly tossed it in. Non effort.

Aleet Alex- Crist says he\'s 1 for 5 at two turns. (I guess 8.5 marks is two turns at Belmont now?) Shame on you Mr. Crist. You\'re a New Yorker! Make his record closer to (4) 1-1-1
That would be a 1st at 9 marks and a 3rd at 10 marks despite a Derby bounce. Beat him on form perhaps, but don\'t discount him on Sun King lack of distance affinity.

Giacomo- The luckiest horse in the world.

Going Wild - This horse really wants the lead and won\'t relax off of it. One day he\'s gonna get the lead again like in the Sham and its gonna be a pace issue. Not saying its Sunday, especially with High Limit poised to pop.

[Bally Ache]

Isn\'t it a well established fact (supported by Congressional testimony) that attempts years ago to hop horses were so unsuccessful that the tactic was abandoned and instead chalks were tranquilized and bet against?

I think Bloodline Bob\'s post makes a lot of sense particularly the part about Lake, Dutrow, et al.

Chuckles, you make a bald assertion in response to that.  Back it up.  Name two dozen trainers who could be better than Lake, Dutrow, et al.  What\'s your criteria?  

What is the yardstick for who\'s using? It would seem to be level of success and nothing else, yet I never see Shug McGaughey\'s name mentioned.  He\'s successsful.

How about Lukas & Baffert?  There not as successful as they were a few years ago.  Did they run out of drugs?  Change vets?  Zito, OTOH, is more successful.  Did he get new and better juice?

I\'m not naive, people are going to try and cheat.  Stricter drug testing is better for everyone (except the cheaters, whoever they may be).  The goal should be strict PRE RACE testing for everyone, all the time or detention barns for everyone, all the time. But until this happens and it isn\'t going to happen anytime soon, we must deal with what is.

Oh, and the little drama about Afleet Alex being taken to another stall to be hosed down doesn\'t advance the case, it damages it.

[Wrongly]

Bloodline Bob, come on the Balco case should have proved to anyone that drug use in sports is extensive.  If people are willing to take drugs to improve performance, what makes you think that people aren\'t using all sorts of drugs on animals.  Offlee Wild might be the Barry Bonds of thoughbred world.  Nice horse but not outstanding until he found Richard \"Balco\" Dutrow.  Are you really under the misconception that Offlee Wild\'s performance in his last four races were due to trainning?

[richiebee]

As TGJB likes to say, the awareness and perception issues brought forth by enhanced testing are important in themselves.

The reality is that its likely that at the end of the year that Frankel and Pletcher will likely continue to win Graded Stakes at a 25% or so strike rate and Dutrow, even with a 60 day vacation, will likely be leading trainer at NYRA. (They gave him 60 days at a time in the year when his stable traditionally hasn\'t done much anyway).

There seems to have been a lot of bitterness and hand wringing over the result of the Derby; Come on guys, the Pim Special and the Preakness are both great betting races and are tied together in a double. Time to dust ourselves off and get back on the bike.

TGJB-- the Hindenburg just passed over Staten Island, headed north towards Varick Street.

[miff]

RE Bloodline Bob\'s post,


Somewhere between what Bloodline Bob posted and this board\'s drug paranoia is where the truth lies, imo.

All the vet procedures mentioned and milkshakes are as old as the hills in this game and do not account for the inordinate success of certain trainers imo.Performance enhancing drugs are a problem if you ask just about any trainer on the backstretch at any major racetrack in America.

There is little doubt that horsemanship/stock play a significant role in winning races. There are many great horsemen like Jerkens, Mott, Mc Guaghey,Lucas, Baffert who do not come close to Pletcher, Frankel, Asmussen, Dutrow, Mullins and others in winning races anymore, how come?, did they the former group forget how to train horses? What happened?
The claiming game is very different and there may be some plausible explanation as to why a claiming trainer wins more often than a trainer who may be superior horsemen.

I agree with Bob that the reason for a horse not running his expected fig is not SOLELY due to drugs \"on\" or drugs \"off\".Sometimes, on this board, I feel that drugs are used as a poor excuse to explain why a runner or a race comes up completely contrary to TG thinking/philosophy.The last half in the derby was raced in 53+ secs and Afleet Alex needed to be drugged during bath time to do that.If you believe that one, you should give up the game.

Like I said,if you take the best of both sides of this issue, you are probably as close as you can get to reality.

HP,

Try paying attention to what I say instead of just looking for ways to attack me.

I clearly said that as as fan I would like the sport to be cleaned up.

What part of that didn\'t you understand?  

\"HOWEVER\" since I am not in a position to do so, I have to play the game as it is. The way game is now, IMHO it is actually easier to beat. That doesn\'t mean I wouldn\'t give up a few winners to make it better. It means I want to cash as many tickets as possible given the conditions.

What I don\'t want to do is analyze every race and blame drugs for every performance that doesn\'t match my own figures and analysis. Even though there IS a drug/cheating problem, IMO, it is not nearly as bad as some here believe.

Furthermore, if I got the point where I believed it was and was analyzing races in terms of drugs to the extent I sometimes see, I would probably quit the game.



Post Edited (05-19-05 09:58)

BB,

Thanks for expressing a counter point of view.

Class

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Bally Ache wrote:

> Chuckles, you make a bald assertion in response to that.  Back
> it up.  Name two dozen trainers who could be better than Lake,
> Dutrow, et al.  What\'s your criteria?  

Thats really quite easy. The 3 dozen trainers that were most successful at the highest levels BEFORE Pletcher, Frankel and Dutrow employed the subject Vet.

Its comical that folks on this board actually think the 3 Stooges suddenly and \"simultaneously\" developed a level of horsemanship that eclipsed trainers like Drysdale, McGaughey, Tagg and dozens of others. That the faster times for the 3 Stooges, during their streak, are attributed to \"Sudden Horsemenship\".

[richiebee]

CtC:

  Drugs and emotions aside, what really sets Frankel and Pletcher apart is their ability and willingness to train far flung strings of 180 - 220 horses at different locations.

  Not many trainers, certainly like the ones you mentioned--Drysdale, Shug, Barclay Tagg and many others--have any inclination to run the old Team Lukas type operation. Of course there are many trainers out there who would like as many horses as they can get their  hands on, but their ability does not warrant it.

  There are a lot of advantages created by mere volume. From a wagering standpoint, for all of the advantages they have or are taking, Frankel, Pletcher and Dutrow still lose races at a 70%+ clip, which makes the game very bettable.

[Bally Ache]

Richiebee makes a relevent point.  On Derby Day there was a segment on television devoted to Pletcher.  He has 100 employees and has to spend 2 1/2 hrs. every day in a meeting with the person who handles his paperwork etc.

A lot of trainers just wouldn\'t be able to handle the aggravation.

[TGJB]

Miff-- I agree with a lot of that, and my point about AA was that we don\'t know, and should. We shouldn\'t have to guess, and a detention barn would go a long way towards solving the problem.

What Bloodline and BallyAche are missing is this-- we\'re not saying these guys are suspect because they are successful. We are saying it because we are seeing repeated logic defying move-ups by the same trainers in FIGURE terms. It\'s simply not reasonable to think that so many older horses can all of a sudden made to run MUCH faster than they ever have before, by the same people over and over.

I have used this example several times before-- in the spring/summer of 01, Frankel\'s entire barn, which consisted almost exclusively of older horses, moved forward to 3 to 4 point new tops, all at the same time. The chance of one horse doing it is small, the chance of a few too insignificant to measure. The chance of a whole barn? You tell me.

[dlf]

I\'m not sure where the truth lies in all of this, but here\'s a devil\'s advocate point of view on the supertrainers:

Some of you have suggested that trainers with past success who seem to be clean (i.e . Mott, McGaughey) are no longer winning because they have taken the high road and decided not to cheat, not because their training skills have eroded. The implication being, of course, that the more successful trainers are not much better horsemen, but are cheating.

But let\'s look at the NFL for some interesting parallels.Chuck Noll won four Super Bowls in less than a decade as coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers. After that, he seemed to have a lot less success. Did he forget how to coach? How come his team didn\'t perform well after 1979? Maybe his coaching skills DID erode, or he was no longer able to relate to the players. (Interestingly enough, and counter to my argument, some have recently stated that those Steelers teams won so much because they were ahead of everyone else on steroid use!) Don Shula also had remarkable success in the 1970s and early 1980s. But by the 1990s, his critics claimed that the game had passed him by. Did he suddenly forget how to coach? I don\'t know, but isn\'t it a reasonable possibility?

Now let\'s look at the modern era of the NFL. Bill Belichick has guided the Patriots to win 3 of the last 4 championships, in an era when many Super Bowl teams don\'t even make the playoffs the following season. Everyone hails him as a genius, head and shoulders above his fellow coaches. No one, to my knowledge, has accused him of cheating. So if Bell Belichick can coach that much better than his peers, isn\'t it possible that Frankel or Pletcher may train that much better than theirs?

Would anyone have taken a bet in early 2001 that any team (that wasn\'t the Rams) would win 3 of the next 4 Super Bowls? Probably not, but it happened....Bill Belichick did suddenly improve his performance, maybe Frankel did too.



Post Edited (05-19-05 14:04)