Last Words?

[HP]

FYI, it is not a \'contest\'. I challenged David Patent to post his picks here and said I would do the same for Belmont day. A gentleman\'s bet. It was never a \'contest\'. If other people (including Jerry) want to post their picks, I think it\'s fine. Don\'t turn my challenge into something it wasn\'t meant to be. You won\'t be seeing any picks from Len Friedman up here, and he\'s not \'ducking\' anything either.

I think you also misunderstood yesterday\'s post on this. I didn\'t mean to say Jerry would do the Belmont on Belmont day (Saturday). There are days where Jerry does the analysis, and days where others do it. Sometimes on a major card, like Belmont Stakes day, Jerry will write the \'analysis\' himself (in this case, on Fri., so it could be posted for sale). If that\'s the case here, Jerry\'s picks will appear in the Red Board room the following day (Sunday). If it isn\'t, it isn\'t.

Besides, I know much more about using the TG data than Jerry. My picks will be a much better representation of TG use by the general public. There have been ample opportunities for \'contests\' and unanswered challenges (from Jerry to the Sheets) over the years, and this thing with Patent and I is probably as close as its going to get. Just a couple of know-it-alls making fools of themselves.

If you want to have a \'contest\', go ahead and devise one, but remember \'contest\' implies a prize for winning, and there\'s nothing like that going on here. HP

[dpatent]

Jerry,

In 1 hour I will be jumping into a car to go to San Diego for the weekend.

I am now printing every post from every string I can find since your \'Maryland My Maryland\' started all of this -- so far it is running almost 80 pages.

Over the weekend and on Monday, I will be hitching up the old suspenders and polishing the wingtips.

I will go through the posts and provide a summary (with citations and word for word quotes) pointing out where you and/or Alydar have:

1) Failed to answer a question
2) Given a spurious nonresponse
3) Changed the argument
4) Pulled some other trick (e.g., calling Friedman a liar without having the guts to call him a liar) to avoid admitting something you find unpleasant to admit.

I look forward to the same from you.

This is going to be fun!

[HP]

Go get \'em Dave! It\'s about time someone brought those guys down to earth. Have a great trip. HP

[superfreakicus]

I now request that david patent be banned.


HP --


\"You won\'t be seeing any picks from Len Friedman up here, and he\'s not \'ducking\' anything either.\"

it ain\'t his site.

so, are you telling me that there\'s such a thing as a gentlemen\'s bet, but not a gentlemen\'s contest?
the prize is that you can lord it over the losers for as long as you like -- how about that?

...and I still say jerry will duck this.

[superfreakicus]

ps

based on the public picks I\'ve seen, I have no doubt that you know how to use the data better than jerry.
but, considering how he makes his numbers, I find that a little disturbing....

[HP]

I\'ve never heard of a Gentleman\'s Contest. Sounds fruity to me. What kind of contest doesn\'t have a prize? I already lord it over everyone I know (except at home) whether I win or lose, so that\'s not much incentive.

What difference does it make whose site it is? Friedman could post here if he wanted to.

I\'m bowing out here before this gets nuts. Jerry makes figures. He\'s no handicapper. If these guys were such good handicappers, they wouldn\'t need to sell figures, right? I figured this out awhile ago. Get with it.

My next post will be my picks/analysis, probably on Friday (Patent has said his will be up earlier). No one\'s paying attention to my devastating and clever posts anyway between these multi-page citings and cross citings. Eighty pages? Whew. I have a job. I can\'t keep up with these Ivy League types. They\'re like supermen!

In the meantime, everybody be nice and make money. HP

[Alydar in California]

Superfreakicus: I don\'t know how to cut and paste. I don\'t really know how to type (secretarial work), either, but I have gotten fast with two fingers.

David: Your \"grassy knoll\" line is unbearably trite. I don\'t want to see anything that stale when you reply to me. If necessary, get someone to help you.

I look forward to your reply. Please answer all the questions. I will be happy to do the same.

[TGJB]

I\'ll leave 2, 3, and 4 to Alydar, if he wants it. I\'ll deal with 1, and I bet you don\'t answer my questions directly this time either. I will say that you have done a good job distracting everyone from the original point, which was to compare the Ragozin and TG Preakness sheets.

[TGJB]

So you figure I should post picks for free, while also charging for them, so that I can have a contest which if I win does nothing for me (after all, if I win all I did was beat David Patent), and if I lose he\'s beating Jerry Brown. Anticipating your next wisecrack--when I challenged Friedman there was an awful lot of potential customers on both sides at stake, and I was well known. Winning that one would have been big publicity for either of us. And if he wants to do it for Belmont day, I\'ll give up charging for the analysis for the day.

[Mall]

1. Presumably, the reason you have never addressed my statement that the one and only scientfic way to determine the validity of any theory is to test to determine if the theory can be refuted is because you recognize this basic truth.

2. The reason I bring this up is not to try to convince you to stop your efforts, either because Alydar is winning the debate or because I\'m not enjoying the exchange, which I am.

3. Likewise, I think your contest with HP was a great & has already been an entertaining idea, though I assume you would agree that all it\'s likely to \"prove\" is that one of you was a better handicapper on one particular day.

4. The 1st thing to think about, then, is how would one refute one or the other figure making theories which are under consideration?

5. The contests & challenges which have been suggested in the past all seem to suffer from the same problem, namely that they would test handicapping skill rather than figure making methodology.

6. I suggest one possible method for testing figure making methods would be for a TG user & a Rags\' user(it doesn\'t have to be you) to commit in advance to use both products for the entire length of this yr\'s Sar meet and post, in advance, the major differences between the two on a daily basis. By major differences I mean situations where, for example, one product has a horse going backwards in its most recent race & the other has the horse moving forward, or the horse lays over the field using one product & is 1 of 3 or 4 contenders using the other. There may be other major differences, but these are the two I saw most often doing this for approx 75 races in April. BTW, there are not as many major differences as you might think, and it does not take that much additional time if you\'re going to handicap the race anyway to spot them.

7. One possible drawback might be cost, so I suggest that the TG user buy the Rags & see if JB would be willing to supply TG gratis for the test, while the Rags user sets up a computer account and orders TG online and sees if Robes will supply rags gratis for the duration of the test. That way, neither service loses a sale.

8. The second thing you might want to think about are your comments about censorship on one Bd vs the other. Again, the results tell the tale, at least if you\'re willing to compare the number,variety, breadth, etc of the posts on this Bd vs Rags over just the last two weeks. When I 1st started posting on this Bd I used to think, wrongly I learned, that most were content to simply follow JB no matter what. Now I\'m convinced that it\'s the other Bd that is little more than a place where the truly devoted can ask Robes what he thinks about various patterns. Can anyone honestly imagine anything even remotely approaching what has taken place on this Bd over the last 2 weeks ever happening on the Rags Bd?

[Brettfavre]

Guess What? Except for a few guys with too much time on their hands, nobody cares. Why not stop writing about this nonsence and do something important, like figuring out how to accept orders from us AmEx users?

[JRL]

Post your picks for free!!!! The horror.

The thing I think you have always failed to understand is that there is not a single experienced Ragozin user out there who would switch sheets because you beat Friedman in a handicapping contest.  That is because we are smart enough to understand that answering who is a better handicapper (particularly on one particular day) has almost nothing to do with the quality of the sheets.  

Other than some interest on what Friedman thinks of certain patterns, I have no use for his picks in any race.  That is because I have spent the time to learn how to use the sheets on my own.  Often, I disagree with him, and we are using the same numbers.  

Your obsession with picking \"winners,\" instead of making accurate numbers, makes you appear to be just another tout instead of a serious sheet maker.  That is why you will generally be relegated to those passing users (yes, I am sure there are also a few serious horse players who use Thorograph) who want someone to pick a winner for them instead of serious players looking for the best numbers.  I don\'t think Ragozin skips any sleep over the fact that he loses these customers to you.

[Michael D.]

Jason,
How do you know that most \"serious players\" use the Ragozin sheets. Did you take a survey? I would be very interested in your method of observation.

[TGAB]

That one\'s on me. We\'ll get it fixed by Tuesday or sooner.

[JRL]

Frankly, many of the serious horse players I know use neither, but the one\'s that use sheets use Ragozin.  That is certainly not empirical, but I can infer the sophistication of the user by JB\'s marketing approach.  Any serious user would not be overly concerned with getting his picks.  Frankly, none of us should care who makes the numbers or what that person\'s opinion of a particular race is.  What we should care about is that the numbers accurately reflect reality.  That is my overriding goal in purchasing numbers.  I do not contend that Ragozin is 100% accurate, but is the closest I have ever seen, and thus I use them.  

Frankly, I don\'t want my sheet maker to be in the business of giving picks. Maybe some tips on how to read the sheets, but not picks in individual races.  That only leads to laziness on the users part and hinders your own analysis of the race.  JB constantly attacks Friedman for not being definitive on his selections.  Any person who is definite on betting a horse without knowing the odds is destined to lose regardless of the quality of the numbers.  Picking races in advance, gives the picker an incentive to pick winners and not maximize return, which is all a horseplayer should care about.  Finally, the act of picking races provides an incentive to make the numbers conform to the picks.  I am not accusing JB of doing this, but I think there is an inherent conflict of interest in having the same person make the numbers and then pick the races for marketing purposes.