Good luck on Derby Day

[derby1592]

Lots of questions again this year in no particular order.

Will BR rate? Will BR bounce? Will BR Freak?
Will J Rose work a trip on AA?
Will Bandini go 4w4w and make his connections regret their strange choice of post?
Will Jerry Bailey win on possibly his last Derby mount?
Will Joe Bravo on the rabbit try to race ride BR wide on the first turn?
Will HL get a perfect trip on the rail stalking the speed?
Will Sun King circle back to a good number like Invisible Ink did in the derby a few years ago?
Is Kee really that quirky and could we see a turnaround similar to Sis City and Summerly in the derby?
Are the supertrainers way ahead of the supertests?
Can GG run another big one and cash the biggest wager on this year\'s derby (1/4 mil entry fee)?
Will the track be supped up on Derby day?
Will Wilko end the so-called BC jinx?
Will HF or NC end talk of 5-week layoffs?
Will BR or HL end talk of needing 3 preps?

And finally, can Andy Beyer get off the derby snide?

Hope you all cash some big tickets on Derby day.

Good luck.

Chris

[razzle]

Other\'n that, it\'s a very straitforward, honest contest of the best 3yos...?

Good luck Chris.  raz

[Mall]

Chris: You undoubtedly intended your questions to be rhetorical, but I\'m going to address a few anyway, since it will give me the opportunity to mention Art Lander\'s Herald-Leader Derby Handicapping System, which has enjoyed surprising success over the yrs.

I know we\'ve discussed this before, but BR rated in his 1st race, enough evidence in my mind to prove that he is capable of rating. btw, I saw this morning that Donna Brothers is of the same view.

Sis showed signs in her training that she would not handle CD. The reports I am getting are that GG is showing the same signs.

I\'m not sure how reliable the info is, but I was told last night by someone who should know that the track will be left open & fair which, if true, should be apparent throughout the day.

Like many, Art\'s system ranks the horses based on what he believes are the 10 most important criteria, such as: success at 9f, competing in a route race at 2, running style, the trainer\'s & jock\'s previous derby experience, etc,etc. The factor that caught my attention, & reminded me of PGGM at the same time, is how he incorporates Tgraph, namely: \"Add the Thoro-Graph figures of the winners of the Florida Derby, Lane\'s End, Bluegrass Stakes, Wood Memorial, Arkansas Derby and Santa Anita Derby, then divide by 6.\" Horses which meet or exceed that avg(-1 this yr) in a 3 yr old route race earn pts which contribute to their ranking. I guess everything can be reduced to a formula after all.

It\'s probably a matter of self interest, but I\'m hoping long experience counts for something when looking for bombs on the undercard. For example, today\'s had me thinking of Mula Gula & Cappuchino, among others.

Good Luck today.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Mall wrote:

> I know we\'ve discussed this before, but BR rated in his 1st
> race, enough evidence in my mind to prove that he is capable of
> rating. btw, I saw this morning that Donna Brothers is of the
> same view.
>

Lets discuss this some more. I\'ve probably bet upon more first timers than most skilled handicappers would consider wise. Many times those bets were upon what was undoubtedly the quickest horse in the race and first time out of the gate they were caught flat footed. If they laid over their competition, which many times they did, some were able to overcome their jittery first break and win. One did so while I disgustedly went to the restroom certain I\'d lost. That one never \"rated\" again.

Theres no telling what a first race two year old is gonna do. Bellamania ran his best fractions ever that race. Its accurate to say he won from behind. Rating is a whole nuther issue. Bellamania will be behind in this race from outside. How far outside is to be decided. When he\'s behind on the first turn will he be \"rating\" or outfooted?

Theres only one question to my mind. Is he sufficiently freaky to run hard, run long and run late with quality horses the Kentucky Derby itself has never seen before.