Derby Selection Thread

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Tough race for the exotics because per usual theres a number of horses that could hit the lower spots. Be advised this analyis is not entirely upon TGraph. When its a TGraph play per my reckoning I\'ll mark it such (TG):

1. Sort it Out - Hes cycling back at the right time. The question that has to be asked is \"Was this horse well meant last\". Purportedly he wasn\'t a go for the race until the last workout. So the suspicion is that he was considered on form for the Lexington and came up short. The trainer says hes come alive and that last workout looks great, though this horse has always been a good worker. This guy is a million plus War Emblem Type purchase, without the War Emblem speed figures. So why is he here? Bob Baffert hasnt\' been as hot as the Supertrainers the last two years, but who doubts that in another 20 years hes gonna have all the records? He\'s the best there ever was and the best that there ever will be and he knows how to buy a horse and he bought this one. I don\'t know what he saw for sure, but this guy is cycling. Definite 4th place inclusion. Probable 3rd place inclusion. If Baffert gets this guy to finish higher would it be a shock? Perilous.

Andromena\'s Hero -The veritable Clunker. Watch the Ark again and see how everyone outpaces him on the turn for home. He just keeps on clunking and clunking and clunking. Unlikely he catches the same dream trip, but it appears he\'ll rail park early. That last eighth on a speed duel is gonna make this horse or break him. He will be running late the question is the track and how much ground he has to make up. 4th and 3rd place best probability.

Sun King - One race wonder horse. Dream trip finisher in the BC Juvy. What do you do? I\'m leaning toward 3rd and 4th. Small straight perfecta for 2nd. Beat Survivalist by 6. Scrappy T just handled same by 5. Though Scrappy is a game and honest horse when right. Still it was Survivalist and it sheds no laurels on him. Beat Monarch Lane by 8.5 at one turn. Greeleys beat him 9.5 at two. Advantage Greeleys. Could save ground and will have to.

To be continued....

Bellamy Road ran the fastest race last time out.  It was a solid race both pace and final time wise. However, it wasn\'t a very high quality field. BR also got loose on the lead on a track that certainly wasn\'t hostile to speed. Today he will have to cope with having quality speed inside of him and an extra furlong. I don\'t expect him to duplicate his recent figure. Depending on how severe the trip is and how he copes with pressure/rating tactics he could easily get beat or even finish well off the board despite the superhorse type numbers that most figure men are giving him.

IMO, the figure for the Blue Grass is the key to handicapping this race. I think the pace of the BG was fast enough to impact several horses. I also totally agree with JB that it doesn\'t make sense that all the horses that finished well behind Bandini ran as poorly/slowly as the Beyer figures suggest. They were a group of lightly raced, high quality, consistent and improving 3YOs. No matter how you get there (numerically or subjectively/using pace or not), I think Bandini\'s BG was probably a high quality peformance. Todd Pletcher is on a roll. I think he will get another big race out of Bandini and I think this horse can get a decent trip from the outside if he tucks in behind the speeds.

High Fly\'s Florida Derby was better than it looks. He raced close to a fast pace and finished well. I think he\'s better than most people are giving him credit for. I also think the Florida 3YOs have been underrated all spring. Without the horror trip he had in the Holy Bull, he\'d be undefeated. I\'ve been slightly skeptical about his ability to run as well at 10F as he has at 9F, but there really isn\'t that much evidence against him getting it.  

Afleet Alex has a terrific overall record. IMO, other than the Rebel where he was sick, he should have won every race he\'s run in.  He\'s another one like High Fly. He has never really looked like a 10F horse to me, but there really isn\'t a ton of evidence against him either. Maybe I\'m wrong, but I\'m discounting his chances a little based on that despite his recent fast and impressive win against \"2nd string\" horses.

Greely\'s Galaxy ran a very fast race last time out. It may have even been better than it looks because he was prompting a pretty quick pace. Unfortunately he has only that one huge figure. He\'s also only had a total of 4 starts and earned that fast figure against the \"3rd string\" 3YOs.  I\'m less sure of what to expect of him than some of the others who have been building to their bigger races in a more predictable fashion against higher quality stock. The main thing he has going for him is that he\'s probably going to be overlooked despite a decent chance of getting the job done.  

Sun King, Wilko, Noble Causway, Giacomo, Greater Good, Coin Silver and other long shot closers are all very live to get a piece of the triple or superfecta if the pace is fast enough to take out a few of the speeds and/or a couple of others don\'t want 10F.  I\'m more skeptical of the chances of several talented horses like High Limit and Closing Argument because of the 10F and the likely pace. The rest will have to improve further.

Preliminary Odds Line Pending Track Conditions, Biases, and Morning Mint Juleps.  
 
Bellamy Road      4-1
Bandini           5-1
High Fly          7-1
Afleet Alex       8-1
Greely\'s Galaxy   10-1

[big18741]

Expecting a hot pace.Not betting against Pletcher /Tabor.Bandini is tractable and will go wherever Jr wants him to.

Bandini on top of these six in tris:

Noble Causeway
Coin Silver
Flower Alley
High Fly
Alex
Bellamy

Supers

Bandini over

NC,Alex Bellamy
NC,Alex,Bellamy,Coin,Flower,High Fly
Same six in the 4th slot

[SoCalMan2]

Probably will be irrelevant, but to innoculate myself against future redboarding accusations, here is what I see myself using

Primary horses -- Sun King and High Fly

Secondary horses -- High Limit and Greeley\'s Galaxy

Will also be spreading deep in one of the holes in my Tris and Supers. In these spreads, will be covering with a lot of the obvious horses (this means everything 15-1 and under on the ML), the only horse in the spreads that is not so obvious is Wilko.  

Depending on how much I end up betting overall on the race, one layer may just have an \"all\" in the spread hole so I do not look like an idiot when they run Sun King, High Limit, Greeley\'s Galaxy, and {you name the tomato can here}.  Dime supers would be nice for this sort of thing.

Speaking of candidates for the \"tomato can\" spot, I note that Baffert and Lukas are going to be a TON longer this year than they were in 2002 when lots of people (not TGJB, though) were kicking themselves for missing a thousand dollar exacta by not \"just\" hooking up the two \"Derby Specialists.\"  Curious what the Baffert-Lukas exacta will come back this year (but I assure you I will not have a single ticket that has both Sort It Out and Going Wild on it).  

One note -- These picks are not simply the result of who I project to run the best figures (although i like the patterns very much on some of my picks).  I have tried to factor in ground loss and possible (but not certain) pace exertions.  I think that Bellamy Road, Bandini, and Afleet Alex may all run superior figures, but I view them as facing greater challenges pace and trip wise than the horses I am using.

[MO]

I think Bandini and Greely\'s Galaxy have identical lines. They both freaked in thier last and their prior races were not good enough to hit the board in the Derby. I think they both bounce 4 points today.

Afleet Alex, if were trained by someone else and ridden by a top jock would be my top pick to win. There are only 2 dual qualifiers (dosage - experimental hcp) in the race this year and AA will be the favorite. I\'ll use him as a saver.

My pick is Sun King. Never out of the superfecta, has the 5th fastest back figure,  appears to be circling back to it and is 16-1. And while I am a believer in the dual qualifier system, High Limit at 22-1 is too good to pass up.

[johndrj]

Bellamy Road
Bandini
Afleet Alex
Noble Causeway

[JEB]

well here goes

I think that my play will be Sun King to win. Zito was so high on him and he just never got going in the Blue Grass. I like his chance to bounce back. His odds are going to be good.

I am throwing out Bandini based on his huge move forward. Even though, i love his 10F breeding and the pace of the race plays right into his style. I can hear myself whining about this already.

I cannot believe how high the odds have drifted on both Greeley\'s Galaxy and High Limit. High Limit is only a slight move forward away from being right there.

I will play a tri with:

Sun King, Afleet Alex, Bellamy Road with
SK, AA, BR, High Limit, Greely\'s Galaxy with
SK< AA, BR, HL, GG, High Fly

[jimbo66]

Bandini, top selection.

Noble Causeway second best.

Using longshots in the super like Closing ARgument, Don\'t Get Mad, Coin Silver, Andromeda\'s Hero and maybe Wilko.

Multirace tickets to include top two + Sun King.

Good luck

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Tough race for the exotics because per usual theres a number of horses that could hit the lower spots. Be advised this analyis is not entirely upon TGraph. When its a TGraph play per my reckoning I\'ll mark it such (TG):

1. Sort it Out - Hes cycling back at the right time. The question that has to be asked is \"Was this horse well meant last\". Purportedly he wasn\'t a go for the race until the last workout. So the suspicion is that he was considered on form for the Lexington and came up short. The trainer says hes come alive and that last workout looks great, though this horse has always been a good worker. This guy is a million plus War Emblem Type purchase, without the War Emblem speed figures. So why is he here? Bob Baffert hasnt\' been as hot as the Supertrainers the last two years, but who doubts that in another 20 years hes gonna have all the records? He\'s the best there ever was and the best that there ever will be and he knows how to buy a horse and he bought this one. I don\'t know what he saw for sure, but this guy is cycling. Definite 4th place inclusion. Probable 3rd place inclusion. If Baffert gets this guy to finish higher would it be a shock? Perilous.

2. Andromena\'s Hero -The veritable Clunker. Watch the Ark again and see how everyone outpaces him on the turn for home. He just keeps on clunking and clunking and clunking. Unlikely he catches the same dream trip, but it appears he\'ll rail park early. That last eighth on a speed duel is gonna make this horse or break him. He will be running late the question is the track and how much ground he has to make up. 4th and 3rd place best probability.

3. Sun King - One race wonder horse. Dream trip finisher in the BC Juvy. What do you do? I\'m leaning toward 3rd and 4th. Small straight perfecta for 2nd. Beat Survivalist by 6. Scrappy T just handled same by 5. Though Scrappy is a game and honest horse when right. Still it was Survivalist and it sheds no laurels on him. Beat Monarch Lane by 8.5 at one turn. Greeleys beat him 9.5 at two. Advantage Greeleys. Could save ground and will have to.

4. Noble Causeway - How much ground was he really making up on High Fly last? His pedigree is nice for 10 marks, but maybe not as much a sure thing as everyone says. Don\'t know how close this one will be in the last furlong, but suspect Andromeda will be moving better.

5. Coin Silver - Well, does this guy remind you of Anyone? Very scary horse. Hot at the right time. All he beat is Sort it Out right?

6. High Limit - probably a good front end type. Bluegrass was much better than it appears. Implied earlier he would not hit the board. Am much less certain of that now. Winning will be very difficult. Will use in 3rd and 4th.

7. Flower Alley - game Distorted Humor, Blinkers will help. Can\'t see him winning, but will never give up. Suspect the 10 marks is a little too much.

8. Greater Good - Left his race in the Paddock last. Has not worked very impressively at Churchill, but has run well enough there before to excuse that. Last two races are an enigma. This guy has to tuck in and rate. Rebel he lead early, Ark he rushed up and further compromised himself. Somethings gotten into his head at the wrong time. Big crowd, big unknowns. Low figures. Light pedigree.

9. Greeley\'s Galaxy (TG)- One of the Four Horses of the Apocalypse. And probably the best price of the four. What is not to like about that last race? Other than you have to suspect Stute is not juicing him. Probably has speed to stay out of the big trouble. Works at Churchill are ambiguous. Hes apparently shut down quickly after them and that can be interpreted negatively. However note the first work at Churchill. Anyone suspect the workout comparisons are  folly with this horse? His connections didn\'t think enough of him to nominate him it appears. Kent knows the horse and track. Omit at your peril. He\'ll be as high as 2nd on all my tickets.

10. Giacomo - Is working better than he ever has.  

11. High Fly - Excuse and excused in his first 2 turn race. Met Bandini and was fortunate to win. Florida Derby ran even better and Bailey throttled him down late. Like his pedigree, suspect its not ideal however for 10 marks. Will get first run at them.

12. Afleet Alex (TG) - The 2nd of the Four Horses of the Apocalypse. Barring trouble perfect pace entry. Jock has found trouble for him. Any semblance of a quality ride  and this one jumps up even further. Danger is bounce and jock moves too soon and takes him wide doing it. Have to figure they\'ve sat him down with race films.

13. Spanish Chestnut - Ran into the Keeneland rail bias and caved late. Suspect he\'ll be tougher to pass this time, but pass them they probably will about the 7 furlong mark.

14. Wilko (TG) - the wise guy horse. Do think he\'s sitting on a good one. Has shown good late energy in his better races. Good foundation. Should have won last and wasn\'t 100% per reports. Would not be a complete surprise. Will not be on top for me.

15. Killer Bandini (TG) - Best horse Pletcher has brought to Derby. Last two races were outstanding. Who in their right mind doesnt consider this one a serious threat. Upgraded.

16. Bellamania (TG) - Still think its freak or frustration for this guy.

17. Don\'t get Mad - is it lasix and location that has set him back or is it better company and two turns? Leaning against him.

18. Closing Argument - Don\'t like the post, don\'t like the last race, don\'t like the distance.

19. Going Wild - Its Lukas and he\'s cycling, but this is not how Lukas brings Derby winners to the race. Pace factor only in my estimation.

20. Buzzards Bay - Risk to omit Mullins. A bit slow going in, but the post hurt him.

Likely winners:

Afleet Alex
Bellamania
Bandini
Greeley\'s Galaxy
Wilko

The Apocalypse horses! Imagine that.

[Fatso]

I will use Sun King and Wilko as my Key..and flower alley..a small key

Goodluck !

[hossgnat]

Thought I was the only person left who hadn\'t given up on Greater Good until seeing the DRF handicapper selections.  What\'s up with that?

Pace will be hot and half the field should be just off of it.  I look for the race to fall apart on the front end with the closers cruising past the weary nearing the wire.

Greater Good
Sun King
Noble Causeway

Using GG and SK in multirace bets and boxing the above in exacta/tri bets.  Wilko to complete the super.

Wishing all riders and their steeds a safe journey.

[beyerguy]

Come on CtC, you aren\'t going to give us the three faves + two other mildly bet horses then proclaim to nab the winner, are you?

1.  Bellamy Road
2.  Greeley\'s Galaxy
3.  High Fly

Thos are my picks, in order, and not just alphabetical order.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Who said my picks were in alphabetical order. I\'m about to toss Bellamania however and annoit High Limit the second choice.

[Gator]

WIN bet on BR

Exacta Box on NC/HL/GG/AA in case BR and BA do blow up from this pattern

yes an insurance bet...they said no flaming here:)

[twoshoes]

Sun King to win.
Exacta box Sun King; Noble Causeway; High Limit; Bellamy Road

Bellamy back over the top.

Good Luck,

Mark