Derby horses' pattern

[OPM]

JB:
You stated only 6% top and 23% pair, what % are off and X\'s.  Also, these have to taken with a grain of salt.  Some of these horses has no chance of topping and pair at 1 1/4(Spanish Chestnut, Going Wild, etc).  I don\'t know if this was taken into consideration. I think the most pertinent question here is horses that have run the top in their last race, what % top/pair and what % off/X.  For instance, for B. Road, I give him about 1% to top, 10% to pair, 40% off and 49% x.  However, this gives him about a 45% chance to run a -2 or better which makes him the most likely winner.

[bloodline bob]

this is not answering your question but i thought it could be helpful.  i did a rough survey of the winners the last 22 years. my defintion of pairup may be a little different than TGJB but here it is:

New TOP -41%
Bounced but still won - 12%
paired up new top - 25%
matched prior top but less than last race -22%

then i looked at the last 10 years.  The percentages were about the same. bottom line is 2/3 of the winners ran as good or better than previous race.  1/3 ran worse but still won.

[TGJB]

OPM-- the percentages for off races and \"X\"\'s are shown on the seminar slide while I discuss the low percentage of tops. And certainly, how high BR bounces (if he does) is a pretty important question-- which I also discuss.

Blood-- there is no doubt that if you look only at the horse who ran well in the Derby you will find that they ran well. That\'s not the question-- and recent years don\'t have that much to do with earlier ones, as training methods have changed.