Sis City.... TG v Sheets

[gowand]

Don\'t forget the \"science\".  How is it that 15 years ago 300 lbs was big for an NFL lineman and now it is small for a major college lineman.  How is it that Ben Johnson was so much faster than every other human being on earth and how can Bonds suddenly be so dominant at this late stage of his career.  We all know the answers and if you think it is not going on at the top echelons of horse racing while it is going on at the top echelons of every other   sport  you are kidding yourself.  Horses are getting faster at an alarming rate that doesn\'t seem natural and that is because it is not.

[DeathBredon]

I think that the idea that the breed must level off at sometime is incorrect. Indeed, Roger Bannister ran the first recorded sub-4 mile decades ago and the record is nearer 3:40 now.  And, even though no one is using eugenics to breed faster humans, the records keep going down.  Human track runner\'s are not leveling off, so why should horses?

Moreover, with t-breds, eugenics ARE consciously applied and the time between generations are even shorter.  Thus relatively rapid improvments in overall, absolute performance are to be expected. So, I would be very surprised if a decent handicap horse today couldn\'t handle a hypothetical Secretariat simply because the contemporary horse should have genetic advantages (possibly passed on from Big Red himself).  In sum, we can pad the tracks to slow the real times or not, but if the performance figs don\'t show a speed inflation, then the figs are not accurate across generations (they may, however, be accurate for comparisons within a given generation).

With the above in mind, I am not worried about the Sheets\' incorrect assumption that all generations of horses are equal (10K claimer as a constant), as I don\'t bet Bandini vs. Secretariat.  But, what does worry me is that the Sheets fail to account for the fact that track variants change over the course of a given card and are not necessarily the same for sprints and routes.  Likewise, Beyer is often too cowardly to give out big numbers when he see them run right before his very eyes.  When I buy TG, what I am personally buying better (not infallible) judgment regarding variants for individual races and hence more accurate figs on average.

Often, Beyer numbers, the Sheets, and TG will all say about the same thing about a horse.  Obviously, Bellamy Road ran a whopper last out.  Anyone can tell you that.  But when the figs vary across brand, TG is on the mark more often because JB calulates them as he sees them and is less restrained by the prejudices that blind his competitors.

For instance, why shouldn\'t I believe that Bandini ran well in the BG?  Looked damn fast to me from the rail and on the clock.  So why is Beyer only giving him a 103?  Did Frankel\'s horse really fun that poorly in second -- I doubt it.  That doesn\'t mean I don\'t think Bandini may have had help reaching a big fig based on pace and track conditions and may not run that good again this year.  But, nobody\'s final-time figs accounts for track bias and internal pace (nor should they).  That\'s for us \'cappers to do with the figs after thay are otherwise objectively calculated.

[DeathBredon]

Why do you think bigger horses are faster?  Wouldn\'t Clydesdales dominate then?

As a matter of physics, sleeker horses with frailer legs are likely to go faster, at least until they break down.  Charismatic would be a good contemporary example.  

While Dr. Fager might have beaten Charismatic in Sumo wrestling or in races over pavement, but I doubt he could do it on a track with a good 3 1/2 inch cushion.

\"While Dr. Fager might have beaten Charismatic in Sumo wrestling or in races over pavement, but I doubt he could do it on a track with a good 3 1/2 inch cushion.\"

Would you rather see a match race between Dr. Fager and Seattle Slew or Charismatic and Pro Prado?   :-)

[high roller]

hi, you got this dead-on, 110% correct, could i email you privately, mine is tallstar181@aol.com

[DeathBredon]

Charismatic would waltzed away from Fager and Seattle Slew.  So, sure put a contemporary horse with at least a rats chance in hell.

[marcus]

A security guard buddy of mine who learned to follow the races in his home country of jamaica and now is a big race fan here in nyc handed me a print ouy of an online ragozin insider :road to the triple crown page of the thoroughbred times dated 4-22 and it\'s says amoung other things that the andromedas\'s hero colt may relish the extra furlong in the derby ... it doesn\'t exactly hit home w/ resonence and to me seem\'s to be a very neophetic approach and  a disservice to those who have an interest in racing and speed figures . Ragozin along with some of their assocites (who\'s names will thusly remain unmentioned here) are sounding and behaving more and more like government agencies  - keep your wallet in your front pocket ...