Formulating the Derby super

[ronwar]

Started making some tough decisions when formulating my super ticket.  Sure its early but what the heck...

Super Key-   

First spot: -no big surprises here

Afleet Alex-   One of the fast ones, ultra cosistent-only bad one was with excuse
Bellamy Road-   Is THE fast one, get this first one and we could see a Triple Crowner finally

Second:   Its gonna be tough to split the top two

Afleet Alex-   If Bellamy is the real deal, he\'ll have to settle for second
Bellamy Road-   In case he makes any mistakes
High Limit-   I don\'t think he liked that track all that much, besides Frankel don\'t bounce

Third:   This is where we begin to make our money

Bellamy Road-   If he\'s not the next coming, he\'ll just be holdin on
High Limit-   I read somewhere Frankel don\'t bounce
Wilko-   We should see his best right here. Third of layoff, return to 2yr old top - perfect, just a tad slow
Flower Alley-   Got a little tired in his last, should be set for another ITM finish
Noble Causeway-   Hung in last. Hasn't went backwards yet.

Fourth:   Anyone can run 4th right?

Bellamy Road-   Must use in all slots
High Limit-   I think this guy will be around for a while
Wilko-   Should be right there
Flower Alley-   Has room to improve
Noble Causeway-   This guy is real scary. Perhaps I should put him in the 2 hole as well
Greater Good-   Didn't run a lick in last, may be able to pass some tired ones here
Giacomo-   Yes, Giacomo. Figures to run his regular even race, and pass some tired ones
Adromeda\'s Hero-  We said anyone can finish fourth


Toss   

High Fly-    Gulfstream Park champ hits the road and I think the wall.  The last quarter gets him this time
Bandini-   He cant take that quirky keenland track with him...to the moon Alice.  
Greeley\'s Galaxy   Just don\'t see this guy getting anything close to a repeat of that last- we\'re not in Kansas anymore Toto
Going Wild-   As my 3 yr old son would say, \"NO\"
Consolidator-   He need to show a little more in that last, having had a win over the track
Sun King-   Was impersonating as Zito\'s best, I cant explain away that Tampa score
Coin Silver-   Not with my change - get it?
Closing Argument-   A little slow and seems like something may be wrong with this guy
Spanish Chestnut-   I used to like this little guy
Sort it Out   Ha!
Buzzards Bay-   buzzard food

I think the key for me is deciding to toss Bandini, High Fly and Greely and working Wilko and Giacomo in the mix, I don\'t think they\'re that bad.

See ya at the windows..

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I can\'t say thats bad strategy. But i will say you have huge ones eliminating Bandini, Greeleys and Consolidator from the top 4. Very gutsey.

[gvido]

Sorry ronwar. You\'re not cashing the super. ;-(

High Fly is the most likely pony to hit the top 4. He had a small 1/2pt top in the Fla D. and tracked a very fast pace. He\'ll come into the race off a 5 week layoff and always runs his race. He has stamina influences throughout his pedigree and should stay the distance. Bailey doesn\'t hurt either [except in the price]

Good luck in any event.

[NoCarolinaTony]

GVido,

Up till today I really have dismissed Wilko. But I relooked at the SA Derby and breeding says he should get distance ok. With a better Ride, he might hit the super.

What are your thoughts.

NC Tony

[ronwar]

gvido,

Can\'t disagree with anything you said, all he does is run good ones.  He has sat the same perfect trip in all of his races, no more than a couple lenghts of the lead, and usually the first one over.  I\'m betting here, once he\'s away from GP and comes up against a little resistance for the first time, he\'ll start doing the moon walk, especially the last 1/8th.  

I\'m sure you seen those first two works at Churchill...I could breeze 5f in 1:06.3, thats a little different than those bullets he was firing elsewhere

[richiebee]

NCT:

   Wilko has been working very well (59.4, out in 1:11.3 on Saturday), and as someone posted on this board earlier, he ran 1-1/4 miles in a wide 1-1/8 SA Derby.

   I own him in the futures at 21/1, which could turn out to be no value. Wilko could be that price or higher on Derby Day.

   No horse since Sea Hero has won the Derby without running at least a 100 Beyer in their final prep before the Derby; Wilko ran a 98.

   Wilko does have stamina, and he did show a nice burst of speed in the BC Juvie after dropping back on the turn.

[hossgnat]

ronwar wrote:

> Noble Causeway-   This guy is real scary. Perhaps I should put
> him in the 2 hole as well
> Greater Good-   Didn't run a lick in last, may be able to pass
> some tired ones here

I think the safest possible Derby bet is NC to show.  This one is going to be a terror in the stretch, and with improvement and a well-timed move from Stevens could take it all.  I look forward to seeing GG run his race too.

You have the two favs for the win.  Nothing wrong with that, but in either case you\'re asking the jock to win the Derby with his first-ever mount.  I foresee the post-race story on Afleet Alex being an overly aggressive training schedule, and maybe a questionable ride.  Bellamy Road can still be anything.  Will he be a fighter in the stretch?  Who can say for sure.  But I\'ll probably take a stand that he\'s a very fast horse that lacks the heart to repulse challengers.  We all know the type.  Getting him off the board opens up some juicy exotic possibilities.

[ronwar]

hossgnat,

Very good points.  Another move forward by Noble Causway may land him in the exacta. He should enjoy the extra distance and has improved in every start, but nothing that would knock him out here.  I think I will put him in th two hole. His slow breezes at Churchill do not bother, as he\'s never been a real fast work horse.

Greater Good I do not like as much.  Phone Trick is his grandpa,and the work after the last does concern. His racing style fits for making one run and picking-up some pieces, but would need a great ride weaving through the tired horses.

As for the first Afleet, Rose just needs to hold-on, same thing was said about last years winner.  What can you say about the works? Fast horses work fast. I believe Bellamy is the real deal and doesnt need the lead to win, see the maiden win. I think he ends up in front because he\'s just faster than everyone else. I tossed the Keenland race.  I think all would agree some horse just do not like that track and maybe the new jock didnt push the right buttons.  I have little doubt he could sit behind Spanish Chestnut, inherit the lead and run everyone else into the ground. Watch his replays.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I looked at Wilko\'s pedigree some time ago and I was not overly impressed. His dosage is 7.00, however on the dam side his dosage is Infinity. None of which means he won\'t get 10 marks, but I certainly wouldn\'t factor him to improve on pedigree:

http://www.pedigreequery.com/wilko

http://www.pedigreequery.com/native+roots2

[davidrex]

     Afleet to win[its the derby,be a man!]

     the two hi\'s in second hole.

     ban.,b.r.,the two hi\'s in third hole.  

     my key horse....c.a. in all but win!

     my key bet will be insurance...but this will be the clay i\'ve picked out to shape a ticket that will once again be singular[only to find that others amongst us randomly came up w/said combination]

[NoCarolinaTony]

Ctc,

Won\'t Awsome Again\'s DI change as his progeny continue to win GI stakes and his Chldren also produce? Isn\'t that how it works with Dosage?

NC Tony

[spa]

Toss Consilidator at your peril......

[gvido]

NCT:

No, his dosage profile can only change if someone in his pedigree [1st 4 generations] is added as a Chef-de-Race or is added to another aptitudanal category [Brilliant-Intermediate-Classic-Solid-Professional]

gvido

[gvido]

$1 super a/bc/bcd/all= $68

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I agree somewhat with gvido. I really discount dosage, but there is a little merit to breeding. What I think you need to do is review the lineage in the pedigree precisely. See what each horse actually ran in and how they finished. Evaluate each dam\'s offspring as well as what the sire has gotten. Parents are important. Grandparents are fairly important. Going back further than that gets remote. Its nowhere near a precise science. Certainly, nothing near speed figure calculation.

If you look at Wilko\'s dam\'s pedigree it is not impressive. But if Awesome Again continues to produce he could become a \"chef\", if hes not already, I don\'t know. They made Alydar a Chef after Strike the Gold won the Derby and that brough Strike within their bogus parameteres. But its not the Awesome side that is weak in my opinion. Its the mare. Shes got very little stamina in her background. I also dont favor a sprint mare covered by a stamina stallion. I prefer the reverse. Sprint/miler stallion over a stamina mare. I think the last three Derby winners followed that nick and maybe thats why I\'ve been lucky to hit them. (I take that back Smarty was out of a Smile mare...lol..weakest Derby pedigree I ever bet.) This year it could be Wilko or High Limit I suppose.

Lastly, Dosage is passe because our horse dont run the professional and solid distance races anymore, so no one really knows how far they would have gone or how far their get was capable of. You have to figure out other ways of trying to ascertain that.  Dosage is Dead.



Post Edited (05-01-05 15:20)