Don't "Jump" to Conclusions When Handicapping the Derby

[derby1592]

It looks like we had a lot of horses jumped up in their final Derby preps this year. So what can we expect from them in the Derby itself?

I used the same method as I used to look at the \"2 preps or less\" and \"more than 28 days\" questions to see what the \"facts\" tell us.
 
I compared the \"big jump in final Derby prep\" sample to the \"did not jump\" sample to compare them using the TG stat categories of top/pair/off/X and I looked at all the Derbies for 1997 to 2004. (I did not have any complete sheets before 1997. Sheets from 1997 through 2004 are available in the TG archives.)

Note that I defined a \"Big Jump\" as a new top that is 3 or more points better than the previous top. I also limited the sample only to horses with a top of 5 or better (this only eliminated a couple of slow horses).

The sample size for the \"Big Jump\" group is small (only 20) but the results are so striking that I think they provide some definite insight.

Here are the results:

First for the \"NO big Jump\" group (sample size of 111):

New top: 7%
Pair: 28%
Off: 30%
X: 35%

And, now ...drum roll please... here are the results for the \"Big Jump\" group (sample size of 20):

New top: 5%
Pair: 5%
Off: 15%
X: 75%

Wow! Only 1 horse ran a new top (Proud Citizen) and only 1 paired his top (Charismatic) – note that both were trained by Lukas. That is it. All the others crashed and burned on Derby Day. Some prominent names from top barns included: Indian Charlie, Stephen Got Even, War Chant, Millenium Wind, Indian Express, Tapit, The Cliff\'s Edge and Ten Most Wanted.  

I will let you all draw your own conclusions but many of the favorites in this year\'s Derby were likely big jumpers including Bellamy Road, Afleet Alex and Bandini, which could make this a very challenging Derby to handicap.

Cheers.

Chris

P.S. I am sure someone will ask specifically about those that jumped to a negative fig. There were only 2 and both X\'d (Millenium Wind and The Cliff\'s Edge).

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

very interesting Chris...and ty...i\'ll peruse the archives on older races for 3 point tops.

still have to confirm the horses in question are 3 point movers...i\'m not sure Alex is...the others I believe are on the Figs.

[spa]

I believe that the CLASSIC model is 3 or more preps and a bounce in the race before the Derby. The colt must be a grade 1 winner at 2. Forget post position.....to win you must send your horse. Does a Bailey move up Afleet Alex...NO!!!!! The Derby is won just before the horses enter the far turn...nobody moves up the last 1/4....

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

well i just perused 1982-1996 (winners only) and there were a lot of 3 point top in the previous race winners including

Gato Del Sol
Spend A Buck
Sunday Silence
Strike the Gold and
Lil E Tee

different method there it seemed...many more slowly decreasing figure races.....but thats what I saw

Hmmm if like Chris I drop out horses with a Top of 5...Gato, Strike and Lil E are off the list. These older races were slower though.



Post Edited (04-20-05 19:32)

[kev]

Good work, but let me ask this, who are the other 10 horses who had the big jump up??

[kev]

PROUD CITIZEN had a 6 at 2yo and ran a 4.1, and then jumped in the derby, that only 2pts right??

[Blind Switch]

add New York\'s Easy Goer to that list after his 0 in the Wood on perhaps the weirdest racing surface in memory.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I think you caught Mr. Science on a rare math error Kev. What it does is make the modern sampling even more bounce prone.

Im not sure the older races can be utilized, although if Bellamy is a monster horse I\'m sensing a Spend a Buck type. In that Derby he had one primary speed threat in Eternal Prince (Coincidentally owned by Steinbrenner) Eternal Prince broke poorly, the track was WICKED fast and Spend a Buck won laughing.

This time Bad Karma George has Spend a Buck and theres a gaggle of Eternal Princes lining up to face him. I bet Spanish Chestnut runs. If I was Tabor, I\'d run him.

[miff]

SPA WROTE:

 \"Forget post position.....to win you must send your horse. Does a Bailey move up Afleet Alex...NO!!!!! The Derby is won just before the horses enter the far turn...nobody moves up the last 1/4....\"


Thanks for the info.For 30+ years I\'ve been concerned about post position. Nice to know I can fugedaboutit(sp) and that Rose is equal to Bailey in a 18-20 horse field.

[kev]

From 97\' to 04\'......looking at the top two horses for the derby.
1. LION HEART--coming in on a 1 1/2pt new top.
2. INVISIBLE INK--Top was run back in late Jan. 3 races back.
3. MONARCHOS--Top was on Mar 10th, backed up 3 1/2pts.
4. VICTORY GALLOP--Coming in with a 1/2pt move (top)
5. SMARTY JONES--Top was ran on Mar.20th back up 2, O-2 move.
6. MINIFEE--Coming in a 2pt top
7. CHARISMATIC--A 4 1/2pt new top ran it on short rest.
8. CAPTAIN BODGIT--A brand new 1 1/2pt new top last out.
9. SILVER CHARM--Three races in a row on the same top 5\'s
10. REAL QUIET--Coming in with a 1/2pt new top.
11. EMPIRE MAKER--Coming in with pair up tops.
12. FUNNY CIDE--Just ran a new 2pt top
13. PROUD CITIZEN--A new 2pt top
14. WAR EMBLEM--Pair up tops.
15. FU PEG--A new 2 1/2pt top.
16. APTITUDE--A new 2pt top.
10 out of the 16 had just ran new tops and 2 were pair up new tops.

[JR]

\"note that both were trained by Lukas\"

And both broke down in the Belmont.

[spa]

Miff, we\'re talking about this one race,on this one special day. You seem to be trying to turn a toothpick into a lumber yard. I envision the perfect storm. I\'ve got 50 years of practice, done almost everything on and off the track and believe it\'s the toughest game in town. Pat Day said it best....I can ride only as fast as the horse can run! Will I bet Afleet Alex,if Rose rides? You bet!!!!!!

[gvido]

Yo spa:

You can forget the 2yo Graded stakes win angle as none of the last 6 Derby winners even contested a Graded event.

Charismatic still a mdn
FuPig won a mdn in Dec
Monarchos finally became a winner in Jan.
War Emblem played in an unlisted stake
Funny Cide won NY bred stks
Smarty won an unlisted stk

Ever watch the Derby Post Position draw? If there were no difference, why are PP1 and 20 always the last chosen?

[NoCarolinaTony]

Amen to that!!

That\'s been my point all along in previous posts.

PP20 for Afleet Alex would be intersting with Rose on top.

NC Tony