Taken Back

[MO]

Lets go to the video............

At one time, I thought you actually agreed with me on this one. I think after you reviewed the tape.

\"This time, its a bona fide clunker and the question is do you respect Lukas so much you work this horse into your combinations\"

Are you so sure it was a clunker and not that his prior race on that wet fast sealed track wasn\'t as \"good\" as it was \"fast\"?

[jbelfior]

Re: WILKO...sorry, but not sure this guy wants to get a mile and a quarter. (I know.. he\'s by AWESOME AGAIN)...he had every chance to go by some really weak animals and did not.

I\'m a thoro guy, a watch the races guy, a pace analysis (not pace figures) guy when it comes to this game.

The Santa Anita Derby came up weak versus the other route races on the card. Can\'t remember the specifics, but this appeared to be an ordinary race both from a pace perspective and visually. Besides, I agree with CH that there is good reason to completely avoid whatever comes out of California.

When it comes to the Derby, I also incorporate the dosage. I do not mean the 4.00/1.25 crap. I\'m talking about the dominant classisity dosage distribution where the 3rd of the 5 numbers across exceeds the total of all the other 4 numbers.

The only one possessing that right now is HIGH FLY. His pull-up after the Florida Derby indicated he can carry that speed even further.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Blind Switch]

>>The only one possessing that right now is HIGH FLY.

Derby winner must have gotten a FF time of at least 51.3 FPS in a 9 furlong race among their preps. (My new, non-negotiable qualifier) Sorry, High Fly comes up a bit short in each of his trys, the FOY and the FL Dby. Also coming up short is the Blue Grass winner but also rans Consolidator and Sun King rate from previous efforts.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

classhandicapper wrote:

> \"This time, its a bona fide clunker and the question is do you
> respect Lukas so much you work this horse into your
> combinations\"

> Are you so sure it was a clunker and not that his prior race on
> that wet fast sealed track wasn\'t as \"good\" as it was \"fast\"?

The San Felipe was on a dragstrip and Consolidator obviously relished the strip and the kind pace scenario. Personally, I think he got outfooted in the Bluegrass and the jock didn\'t want to use him early to keep it close. However the chart says bobbled and bumped. Once behind he went wide, may have got discouraged and certainly had a carrying bias to overcome. Still it was not much of an effort. I guess the upside is it couldn\'t have taken much out of him, provided hes right.

I have a dilemma. I\'m skeptical about him running well at Churchill now, but hes a dangerous horse to leave out of the underneath spots. The exact makeup of the field, how the track plays and watching him at Louisville will probably decide it for me.

Blind Switch Said:
>>The only one possessing that right now is HIGH FLY.

Derby winner must have gotten a FF time of at least 51.3 FPS in a 9 furlong race among their preps. (My new, non-negotiable qualifier) Sorry, High Fly comes up a bit short in each of his trys, the FOY and the FL Dby. Also coming up short is the Blue Grass winner but also rans Consolidator and Sun King rate from previous efforts.

Blind 51.3 feet per second?

I don\'t think Sun King or Consolidator had any other 9 mark preps. I\'m sure of it, its one reason I discounted Sun King. If you\'re not pulling our legs, you\'re feet per seconding Sun King on a one turn mile.



Post Edited (04-19-05 14:13)

[jbelfior]

Blind Switch--

I would think that would be dependent on the pace which then becomes a discussion of early versus late pace which is probably something we do not want to get into here.

I would agree that HIGH FLY certainly needs to relax a bit early on, but unless you can give me a legitimate closer that can take advantage of the \"slower\" final splits....


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

jbelfior wrote:

> but unless you can give me a legitimate closer that
> can take advantage of the \"slower\" final splits....
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.

I\'m not saying they are gonna fire, but theres certainly some horses in the race that may be able to fire large late. Greater Good, Afleet Alex and Noble Causeway come to mind. I think theres a couple others that could shock the world with a little luck.

I do think the winner will probably be a stalker and not a deep closer. To this point the deep closers haven\'t been fast enough and I\'m looking for a pace advantaged Zed to win. I was very high on Blues and Royals. He was both fast and pace advantaged. When Beyer said he couldn\'t win on one prep and annoited Bellamy the derby victor that cinched it for me. Now hes out so some of the bombs become viable with a little luck.



Post Edited (04-19-05 14:42)

[jbelfior]

CtC--

AFLEET ALEX-- cranked and pointed to the Arkansas Derby. Smallish colt...not sure he can step up again in 3 weeks. More likely to bounce after no show in the Rebel.

NOBLE CAUSEWAY---definitely a possibility if he continues to improve. Not sure I like Prado sticking with SUN KING.


GREATER GOOD--My \"bombs away\" buddy likes him also. Not sure what you guys see in him. Looks like a 1 1/16 closer at best to me.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

Joe,

\"I\'m talking about the dominant classisity dosage distribution where the 3rd of the 5 numbers across exceeds the total of all the other 4 numbers.\"

If it\'s not too much of an effort,  could you elaborate on this or point me to an article.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Greater Good may not want big ground, but his Ark was not his race. He came unglued in the infield, washed out, rushed up...went wide...it was a horror trip. I really didn\'t expect it. He just lost his head. The trainer says its the infield saddling. It may be big crowds. So if i work him in Derby day you can bet i\'m gonna find out if hes washy or not. He\'s not the kind of horse that makes for a wise bet coming in. Bad attitude race, Not fast enough on the figs. But I think if he didnt toss his cookies last hes got a significant forward move in him. Its more speculative now though nothing gained in the last race. It will improve his odds though.

Regarding Alex, I\'ve liked that horse all along. I lost a wad on him in the B.C.Juvenile. Fast horses work fast. They run fast too. Alex apparently also has two bracketed negative numbers coming in.  He never did bounce as a 2yo. He just kept grinding them out. He has a solid foundation under him and how far is his progression from his 2yo form? One thing we do know is that he is progressing. In his lone bad race he was right in it and spit the bit late. So he was trying even then. I get a Silver Charm sense with him. He just likes to run. He may not win the Derby but hes not one i\'m liable to leave out.

Noble Causeway, Jocks are horrible handicappers. I think Nakatani and his agent took Andromeda\'s Hero over Afleet Alex. If Ritchy dumps Rose for Nakatani or Solis he deserves what he\'ll in all likelihood get.



Post Edited (04-19-05 15:06)

[tucker]

If your just concerned with Dual Qualifiers you can toss both Giacomo and Wilko as both have DI\'s over 4.00.  
Giacomo-4.33
Wilko-7.00

The DQ\'s who look to be running will be:

Afleet Alex, Sun King, Consolidator with a possible Rockport Harbor.  This may make it easier for you.

[jbelfior]

CH--

Sure. Besides the dosage index and center of distribution, the dosage is also expressed across 5 wings:

brilliant, intermediate, classic, stamina, and professional. the prescence of more points in the classic wing indicates (potentially) a finer balance between speed and stamina.

HIGH FLY has 20 of his 30 pedigree points in the \"classic\" wing. No other potential entry has this.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[MO]

Hey thanks for the tip. Been away from the game a few years now.

[Blind Switch]

OOOPS- Correcto - my apologies. Should have clarified better. Both Sun King and Consol. were 8.5F preps but FF or final FRACTION (i.e. 2 1/2 furlongs in 8.5F race; 3 furlongs in 9F) were extremely strong.

Using unadjusted times with reagrd to variant, but adjusted for beaten lengths.

A little raw right now, but Sun King\'s Tam Dby final fraction went in 30.4 or 54.3 FPS and Cons was in 30.2. These are very fast races and put them both in the \"strong contenders\" column, at least for now.

If Afleet Alex broke through and not over the top on Saturday, look out. That was a monsterous effort.

[hossgnat]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 wrote:

> Greater Good may not want big ground, but his Ark was not his
> race. He came unglued in the infield, washed out, rushed
> up...went wide...it was a horror trip. I really didn\'t expect
> it. He just lost his head. The trainer says its the infield
> saddling. It may be big crowds. So if i work him in Derby day
> you can bet i\'m gonna find out if hes washy or not. He\'s not
> the kind of horse that makes for a wise bet coming in. Bad
> attitude race, Not fast enough on the figs. But I think if he
> didnt toss his cookies last hes got a significant forward move
> in him. Its more speculative now though nothing gained in the
> last race. It will improve his odds though.
>

All true, and it looked like McKee used him right out of the gate to try to get position going into the first turn, failing miserably to do so.

I may be delusional due to my future wagers on GG, but I think he\'s much better than what he showed in the Ark Derby, although he wouldn\'t have gotten to AA that day.

Should he run for the roses, and it looks like he will, a definite longshot to be sure.  But if half the field is on the pace and the pace collapses, who knows.