Blue Grass

The informal poll at the DRF has Bandini and Sun King as very mild favorites over High Limit and Consolidator. It\'s generally not too indicative of post time odds, but I thought it was interesting anyway.

Bandini 25%
Sun King 23%
Consolidator 20%
High Limit 20%

Curious that Closing Argument is being totally ignored at 4%. He\'s not that bad.  

IMO, the post time odds will probably flip in the other direction. I guess this makes for a good betting race if you have a strong opinion.

[Silver Charm]

This race is a total guess.

All of the big boys are in Derby Day except for possibly Bandini. So maybe he is the one with the most to gain or lose. But then there is that issue where he had to call an audible and skip the Fla Derby, where earnings may have been a lot easier to come by.

Some people talking about being close to the lead may not be anywhere near it.

Remember the Blue Grass is not run on the first Saturday in May.

[jimbo66]

High Limit all the way.  He has the most upside of any horse in the race.  Ran a \"1\" as a 2-year old.  Was running greenly in the stretch and still won easily in the La Derby.  (CH and Chuckles please save all the speed bias, uncontested,etc.etc. responses - We will see on Saturday)

Would take a half point lower in odds without Spanish Chestnut in the race though.  The uncertainly of how a horse will react to being rated is concerning.

[nealdon]

I agree High Limit looks the best in here.
The only way I can see him losing is if he locks up in some suicidal duel with Spanish Chestnut and Consolidator going 3 wide. He looks like a horse that will pair up or possibly go a little faster. IMO, Consolidator bounces. Mr. Sword isn\'t bred for the distance. Closing Argument will pair up at best. Spanish Chestnut is a rabbit. Sun King bounced last out and will improve off that one, but not enough to beat High Limit and is a huge underlay. I like Bandini\'s pattern and I think he continues to improve enough to get 2nd in here.

[SoCalMan2]

Boy, I sure do not see how this race will be bettable.  In my view, better to be a spectator on this one. Apologies to all but Classhandicapper for how the following will sound like the usual phony argument we hear from Classhandicapper.  

To me, there are a \'big three\' and the secondary contenders are not that far behind them.  The big three are High Limit, Consolidator, and Sun King.  From a pattern perspective, I actually like the latter two ahead of High Limit.  Everybody seems to agree that Consolidator has a nice line, so there is nothing to discuss there.  As to High Limit and Sun King, I like Sun King\'s pattern better.  

High Limit came out with a great number as a two year old and went backwards in his second start.  He is now coming back after matching his two year old top.  Normally, that is very positive, but the pattern of his two year old campaign troubles me a bit.  In the race of the week, there is the assertion that Sun King may be this year\'s model of Birdstone.  I think there is a greater risk of High Limit being this year\'s version of Birdstone.  On balance, I give High Limit a 33% chance of moving forward, 33% of pairing, and a 33% chance of regressing.  However, I also think there is a real risk that High Limit could lose ground on the first turn and he is running against horses who, with a better trip, can beat him. He could easily move forward to a zero and not break into the exacta in this race.

Sun King has a beautiful two year old line. He came back as a three year old by busting through is 2 year old top. This is much better than High Limit in and of itself.  His bounce at Tampa is something I view as excusable coming off an early season zero.  Quite frankly, the Tampa figure would worry me more if it was a better fig (like a 1 or a 2).  Also, Tampa is a notoriously difficult track for horses to ship into and his off effort there can be excused somewhat by the ship (if you apply the same reasoning to his Breeders Cup effort, then you have a horse who has not bounced).  In the race of the week, it is mentioned that Zito has been training his horses to improve as the season goes on and not fire the first out.  I suspect that this is true, and I suspect it applies to Sun King.  In my view, the fact he ran a zero in his first out should not be held against him (I suspect it was as much a surprise to Zito as it was to people who follow Zito\'s training patterns).  Taken from that perspective, there would be every reason to think that Sun King will be breaking through that zero sooner rather than later.  I do not think his sheet looks like Birdstone\'s at all.  Birdstone had an unheathly looking pattern for a number of reasons (failure to return to his two year old top for an inordinately long time being chief amoung them) and none of those apply here. I look at this horse more like Monarchos (with the off effort at Tampa for Sun King comparing to Monarchos\'s off effort in the Wood).  I peg this horse as having a 35% chance of coming back to his zero and about a 35% chance of going into negative territory.  However, I do not like to bet horses at the odds that his will be unless they really look overwhelming (which he does not compared to what I think Consolidator can do (and High Limit for that matter) and taking into consideration that he may well lose some ground on both turns).  

Closing Argument and Mr. Sword are not so far behind the big three that they could not get up there without advantageous trips.

I think Bandini is a bet against, but how well bet will he be anyway?

So, apologies to all for not really offering an opinion here and throwing a wet blanket on other peoples\' opinions, but I would be afraid that Sun King could ruin peoples\' plans (while not himself being good enough to justify backing at his odds).

If the DRF poll is any indication of how the race will be bet, I think it will be  unbettable.

I see the same speed figures as everyone else, but I think the major contenders are not seperated by all that much.

Consolidator and High Limit obviously ran the fastest races last out.  

Sun King\'s last race may have been slower, but I can\'t take that race at 100% face value. He only ran hard for the last 2-3 furlongs and was running at close to a 12 second clip per furlong. In order to put up his usual speed figure he would have had to come home in sub 12s. That\'s not something that most horses can do - even very good ones. It wasn\'t like the typical race where a dominant horse runs his race all the way. I\'m not sure how fast he will run, but I\'d be shocked if he doesn\'t run faster than his last.

Bandini is a little slower than the others and has the outside post, but just look at Pletcher\'s overall record with young developing horses. He doesn\'t have that high win percentage because he picks bad spots and doesn\'t develop them. They make come out running, but they do slowly develop and get spotted masterfully along the way. He probably deserves to be a little longer in the odds than the others, but he will be.

Heck, based on the DRF poll Closing Argument will probably be the best value to use in the exotics. I just don\'t like playing horses in Grade 1 races to win off more than 2 months.

[davidrex]

agree totaly w/c.h. assertion about c/arguement and the 70 day layoff. but his sire profile #\'s just leave me breathless. Could the # for 1m.&over be correct?If the  profile is truly indicative of his potenial and the impressive chart he\"s developed....damn that 70 day layoff.

any graded winnings on this chart?..this chart reeks of a derby horse if only he had shown up one more time.....

trainer &tgi figs bang up ..but except for new top by at least 1 pt.[70 days out] these are not spring 3yr. old specific

Every spring a c/arg. comes around w/classic derby line and baggage that restricts its ability to excell for the first sat.in may. OOOOH WELL!


         PARTYpokerON

[mikemd]

my line on the race:

mr sword (30/1)
closing argument (6/1)
spanish chestnut (20/1)
consolidator (8/1)
high limit (7/5)
sun king (9/2)
bandini (9/1)

at the morning line, nothing i\'m too interested in.  however, i wouldn\'t be surprised to see high limit drift up a little and sun king take a little more money than the morning line suggests.

[BitPlayer]

davidrex:  I think the sire profile of Successful Appeal (Closing Argument\'s sire) may be misleading.  It\'s a very small, young sample, and Successful Appeal himself wanted no part of route racing.  The Mr. Greeley on the dam side is also discouraging.  I read somewhere that the reason Closing Argument is so lightly raced this year is that he\'s been on the market.

Classhandicapper:  How about following mikemd\'s lead and posting your betting line for the race?

[RICH]

at your line consolidator would be the bet.

[mikemd]

\"at your line consolidator would be the bet\"

you might have misread my line.  i think consolidator is about 8/1 to win.  he\'s 7/2 morning line.

[RICH]

I\'m sorry, at your line consolidator would be my bet.

[davidrex]

    Bitplayer,

help me out here...c/a has a 5 point jump from sprint to dist.Even factoring in that most of the sprinte were run at 2,and only 10 3yr.olds starting 26 times ..itm 77%...thats 13 of 19 discounting the 7 wins.

i\'m not discounting your comment[to the contrary],but every time I encounter an early sire pattern my head expands and my wallet shrinks.

Hey but this is derby egomania[wise guy ]time.Your take on this animal is right on and I curse c.h. for bringing c/a to my attnetion[only joking!] DAMN THOSE 70 DAYS!

         PARTYpokerON

[jimbo66]

I believe you misread the comments about Zito and how he is training his horses this year (or I misread it).

Zito\'s OLD PATTERN was that his horses would come out slow and work their forward during the campaign.  He used to be a total throwout with 1st time starters and horses off layoffs.

However, he has CHANGED his style recently.  His horses are now firing fresh and early in the campaign and it remains to be seen how this will affect his horses as they get a few races under their belt.  

Sun King fired a \"0\" first time out.  He reacted in the Tampa Bay Derby.  I think the ROTW was pointing out that the \"0\" is a good indication of how Zito has changed his training style a bit.  

I for one, will be very surprised if the horse runs a negative number on Saturday.

I also don\'t understand your read on High Limit\'s pattern.  He ran very fast first time out, backed up slightly second time out, both races easy handridden wins.  First time out this year, he pairs his 2-year old top, again under a confident ride, pulling away from overmatched rivals.  As Jerry has pointed out, it looks like Frankel is handling him care, intentionally a light campaign, hoping to peak in the Derby.  If has any progression from 2 to 3, we should see it on Saturday, and he SHOULD run a negative opinion, in my mind.

The morning line odds are bad, by the way.  Sun King goes off the favorite.  I would lay 2-1 on that......

\"Classhandicapper: How about following mikemd\'s lead and posting your betting line for the race?\"

These are my rounded off fair odds:

Mr Sword  25-1
Closing Argument 10-1
Spanish Chestnut 35-1
Consolidator 7-2
High Limit 7-2
Sun King 7-2
Bandini 9-2

I would need prices higher than this to bet (enough of a margin of safety to keep me profitable on the assumption my line making is far from perfect).

Closing Argument might go off longer, but I have a thing about betting on horses in Grade 1 races off more than 2 month layoffs (don\'t like it). I also don\'t like to go that far down my list of contenders for a win bet unles the overlay is huge.

This line is subject to change if for some reason the track comes up wet or \"I\" perceive a bias. However, if that\'s the case, I\'ll be sure to post my view before the race. I\'ll also let you know if I actually pull the trigger on a bet. I\'m still sort of thinking about it.