Preakness ML and picks

[MO]

War Emblem - 2/1- figures to get a stalking position behing Table Limit and Booklet.

Proud Citizen - 4/1- might have another 0 in him, but faces wide trip.

Medaglia - 5/1- will be over bet considering Bailey and likely ground saving trip just behind the speed.

USS Tinosa - 8/1- great works, good post but will be overbet. Minor share possible.

Harlans Holiday - 10/1-  dull coat, lost weight since last,another 4f work.It would be a  real surprise to me if he\'s on the board.

Booklet - 12/1 - doubt Day will be on a kamikaze mission here. Drew poorly, adds weight and he ain\'t that fast. Factor for a mile.

Table Limit - 15/1 - prepping for Belmont? Yeah, right. He\'ll be on the lead and if Booklet doesn\'t go with him, he  is fast enough to upset.

Magic Weisner - 25/1- home court advantage. If a suicidal pace developes, he\'ll be closing fast and at big odds.

Easyfromthegitgo - 25/1 - not fast, but might clunk up for a minor share, which is all he can realisticall do.

Crimson Hero - 25/1 - Perret got on this horse once and didn\'t keep the mount. That sez it all, but might consider on a wet track.

Straight Gin - 25/1 - will take advantage of lack of inside speed but don\'t think he can go this far.

Equalize - 30/1 - post is a killer.

Menacing Dennis - 30/1 - faces wide trip as part of early pace.

I see one of three scenarios:

1. War Emblem gets loose again and its all over. 2. everyone is speed crazy while War Emblem stalks 3 or 4 wide, pounces on them on the turn and draws off. 3. War Emblem is cooked in a fast pace setting it up for the closers, most of whom will be overbet. The closer I like is Magic Weisner. Table Limit scares me. Proud Citizen and Medaglia can\'t be tossed.

MO

[tread]

Hi Mark,
Suprised you don\'t think more of Straight Gin, do you only use pedigree analysis for the derby and not for the Preakness?  Go For Gin offspring rarely have trouble with added distance, and the average winning distance at dirt STAKES RACES for both the Sire and Dam are above 8.5 F according to Dr. Steve (who I think is a quack, but thanks for the data).  And for those who do like dosage, Straight Gin has the lowest CD and DI in the field, including 7 points in the solid and professional categories.  OK, I\'m done defending SGin....

Also, be careful about the DRF assessment of the appearance of Harlans Holiday, Steve Haskins says he looks fine and McPeek says he is only 10 lbs off his all-time high wieght (bloodhorse).  But I do agree that he doesn\'t have that great a shot, maybe for 3rd.

[MO]

Actually I don\'t use the dosage theory on this race, just the Derby and Belmont.

The fact that SG was soundly beaten in his two races at 9f doesn\'t inspire confidence.

Harlans Holiday- I\'ve been predicting his backing up since before the Fountain of Youth. No reason to quit now. Plus the barn is having trouble and that can be contageous.

MO

[Michael D.]

Not bad........especially \"Magic Weisner closing fast at long odds\"  I hope you had the exacta!!!!

[derby1592]

I hope you cashed.

Chris

[MO]

Thank you!

Only had $100 to invest and bet it this way:

$70 win War Emblem
$20 win Table Limit
$10 win Magic Weisner

Have yet to see race as was in transit. Heard it on WFAN, though. Dissapointed I did not have exacta and tri, but ran out of dough and didn\'t want to risk missing the winner. MO