Aqueduct-Split Variants??

[Silver Charm]

Two maidens were just head bobbing in the third today in 108 and 3/5.

Anyone think they will NOT be slowing the track down as the day goes along??

We will see.

[Silver Charm]

After the Carter the answer is

NO

[Boscar Obarra]

 AQU at least 1/5 second faster than par today. Think Len will notice?

[miff]

Boxcar,

Two strong services have the track 120+ or 6+ lengths faster than par w/wind factored in down the backside.We\'ll wait to see what TG comes with up.

[Silver Charm]

Negative 10

[SJU5]

I was at the Big A today and races 1 and 2 the wind was west to east and races 3-10 completely changes to be east to west. (or into the wind down the stretch!!!  The flags were blowing straight out...strong!

[Silver Charm]

So what you are saying is if Bellamy Road had not been running into the wind down the strech he would have won by twenty plus.

You see what the wind did to Going Wild, he stopped so badly he was almost blown over backwards.

I would be totally shocked if someone can find me a horse who has EVER come into the Derby off two individual wins by 15 and 17 1/2 lengths.

Survivalist was an improving type who came into the Wood off paired 4\'s and was beaten by 17 1/2. Galloping Grocer came in off paired 4\'s and was beaten by 26 lengths. I do not envy any of the high profile Speed Figure Boys because there is no getting around what this horse ran today.

Bellamy Road is now the Derby favorite and will go off at odds of 4-1 or less.

Five weeks rest, two preps, three preps they all seem so meaningless now. The   Bounce Theory is now the topic of the next month.  

Brown, Beyer, Friedman, you guys are in the Hotseat like never before.

Speaking of hotseats I heard today Victoria Gotti is coming to the Derby. First the Boss now the Mob.

[beyerguy]

Beyer has given a 119.  I\'m saying he is at least 5 points too high.

[Captain Stormfield]

How five points high?

Bellamy Road ran 29 Beyer points faster than Survivalist (92, 93 last two) and 30 points faster than a ground-saving Scrappy T (93, 98).  As you move on down through the field it makes even less sense your way--it\'d be easier to argue the fig is a bit low.

[Silver Charm]

Agreed Captain.

This race is way to high profile for him to be able to bail out like he did last year on Smarty Jones in the Rebel.

beyerguy,

Did you make a pace figure for the race?

My quick guess was somewhere between 119-121 for a final time figure, but I didn\'t look at the times/figures for the other races. That was just a quick guess based on the winning margin vs. the figs Beyer gave them last time.

I can\'t wait to see the TG and Sheet figures.

Time to change the scale? :-)

I can\'t recall a faster Derby prep than this one, but before we coronate him let\'s remember that this was hardly a high quality field, he made a clear lead, front runners were holding well today (until of course all the jocks realized it and started gunning 43s). He\'ll also have to duplicate this performance (no easy task for any horse) and negotiate 10F against a field that\'s likely to contain at least one other horse that will keep him honest early.  There\'s no way to not be impressed, but I can\'t see conceding the Derby because of 1 super fast race under very favorable conditions.



Post Edited (04-10-05 11:13)

[gvido]

Silver Charm wrote:

\"You see what the wind did to Going Wild, he stopped so badly he was almost blown over backwards.\"


That was funny, LOL

[beyerguy]

Captain,

I see no reason whatsover to think those horses (Scrappy T, Survivalist) paired up their last efforts.  For one, the Wood was a furlong longer and another turn too.  They were totally outclassed and running on fumes through the stretch.

CH,

I have the pace figure only slightly higher than the speed figure, but even that would be exceptionally fast for Scrappy and everyone else in the race not named Bellamy Road.

The Wood certainly makes you wonder what \"The Mad Genius\" is thinking about today!  Wonder what Zito could have done with Tapit, LOL!

[miff]

Beyerguy,

1. According to the TG methodology, there is no such thing as \"outclassed\"(class doesn\'t exist, remember)

2. With 123LBS and losing some ground, I suspect Survivalist did pair his 4.

3. Given the Tie Back Method( lots of holes there) Bellamy Road ran app a Minus -13.
Beyer had him improving app 12-14 lengths.


Can\'t wait to hear this story debated.

beyerguy,

Makes sense.  

These super dominant wins are sometimes tough to interpret. Sometimes you can\'t tell if the winner improved by a lot, the rest of the field ran sub par and that\'s what made the winner win by so many lengths, the pace set by the winner bottomed out the rest of the field and caused them to run a lot slower, or some combination of the above.  

It would have helped if they carded another 1 or 2 nine furlong races to use for comparison.

There\'s probably going to be a lot of different opinions depending on the predisposition of the handicapper.