White Mercedes wins two... again! (yawn)

[JohnTChance]

White Mercedes wins two... again!

ROSES IN MAY took the Dubai World Cup at 1-1 for Romans.

FLOWER ALLEY won the 600k Lanes End at 10-1 for Pletcher!

Hey... why handicap?

JohnTChance

[ninefingers]

That\'s the best you could come up with? . . .

[JohnTChance]

You\'re right. He really won THREE!

SARATOGA COUNTY scored in the Dubai Sprint at 6-1 for Weaver!

JohnTChance

[ninefingers]

Sorry . . . I didn\'t realize it was the retarded hour . . .

[gvido]

Why did he miss with Proud Accolade?

[JohnTChance]

In the past three years or so [with White Mercedes], so many of the ThoroGraph sheets of Pletcher\'s horses have shown that explosive performance off a layoff in the early part of the Gulfstream meet. [For PROUD ACCOLADE, that was the 3 (taken up) when he ran away and hid in the Hutcheson.] Your average horseplaying shnook with ninefingers - me included? - might naturally figure these \"maturing\" three year olds will move forward next out. After all, they\'re \"growing\" right? But a  large sampling of Pletcher sheets - especially his 3 yr. olds - show that these off-the-layoff explosions usually are followed by BACKWARD moves. Visual aids are really needed here to show tangible evidence of this. There also is the idea that PROUD ACCOLADE\'S training had been interrupted and that he ALREADY had been injected last year to run a 1 [!]. His reaction to that 1 was two severe negative moves. So why shouldn\'t he do the same here?

On the other hand, FLOWER ALLEY (with the same green, yo-yo trip - up close, then dropping back, then preposterously coming on again late when he went into \"Oscar drive\") reminds me of the yo-yo winning trip of MEDAGLIA D\'ORO\'s first win out west in a Derby prep for Frankel. Was it the San Rafael? Same vet. Same \"growing into the steroids\" forward move. Unlike PROUD ACCOLADE, FLOWER ALLEY had worked well after his layoff try - the 5. It was pretty obvious he was going to move forward and that HE, not PROUD ACCOLADE, was what Pletcher was there for. Was his March 13th workout really \"the best workout of the entire winter at PmM\" like I think was mentionned on the telecast?

At 10-1, FLOWER ALLEY was the play. PROUD ACCOLADE did the same thing BIRDSTONE did last year at Turfway. Tube!

For weeks now, after the fact, I\'ve tried to contribute the idea that the big boys [backed by White Mercedes] win the big races. I apologise for trying to hammer that idea home weekend after weekend - as if I have a clue. Feel free to ridicule me.

I\'ll gladly take the 10-1 and $591 double.

JohnTChance

[shanahan]

pardon my ignorance...what is white mercedes?

[davidrex]

      shan:
  white mercedes,allday sucker,juice meister,etc. are all meant to reference a certain vet[could it be s. allday?]vet to the stars of trainers,owners,breeders in the everlasting pursuit of truth and giving an animal the ability to run faster,longer,and for longer stretch of time than EVER BEFORE.
   sounds a little futuristic but the horse game having never been on straight and narrow seems to be able to disguise this phenomenon longer than human athletic competition[how ya goin to subpeona a nag to congress?]
   long time horse friend has for years[since md. legalized lasix and dutrow was forced to flee to ny.because the stuff he had was better than lasix]insisted that industry should make everything legal and let free enterprise level the field.
   with casino money inflating purses,it seems imo that slots and computer batchingw/offshore discounts have brought this game into and a little beyond the 21st century.
   maybe michael jackson isnt a freak at all...but rather a picture of what is to come      PARTY poker ON

[richiebee]

Shanahan:

What D-Rex was trying to tell you in his inimitable way is that one vet, Dr. Steven Allday, currently treats many of the star performers from the barns of Frankel, Pletcher and Dutrow. Dr. Allday apparently drives a white Mercedes.

I thought I had created a diverse post earlier, mentioning the Maktoum family and Nolan Ryan within a few lines of each other, but D-Rex topped me with Rich Dutrow and Michael Jackson in the same post. (Don\'t worry, Mr King of Pop, you are being tried in the same state that allowed Robert Blake and OJ Simpson to walk the streets, and allows Jeff Mullins to continue to ply his trade).

D-Rex did bring up an interesting notion, one that has been discussed for at least the last 30 years. In D-Rex\'s words \"the industry should make everything legal and let free enterprise level the field\". I guess we could call this the \"Amsterdam\" solution.

In the old days, as recently as say ten years ago, there was an old guard who contended that the effects of performance enhancing drugs and treatments would have long term deleterious effects on the entire throughbred gene pool. There were still enough \"hay oats and water\" trainers around having success so that this old guard could contend that performance enhancing drugs were not necessary to be competitive.

The implication seemed to be that the prevalence of performance enhancing drugs would result in a breed which would become slower, less sound and less consistent in future generations.

In my opinion, it may be in the 21st Century that the breeders will do more damage to the future well being of the breed than the so called \"supertrainers\". Consider if you will:

 In days gone by, top stallions were bred 40- 60 times per year. Some now cover 100- 120 mares per year, and others are shuttled between two hemispheres and cover nearly 200 mares per year. I am not familiar enough with the breeding shed to say for certain, but would feel safe to assume that the increased activity necessitates the use of some sort of performance enhancing medication (\"erections which last for 4 hours, though not common...\").

 The chapter in Glenye Cain\'s \"Home Run Horse\" about the cosmetic surgeries which are performed on weanlings and yearlings is very scary. I wonder what an old time horseman such as EP Taylor would feel about this? Basically animals with conformation defects are being surgically straightened. Unfortunately, while the crooked leg is straightened, the crooked gene still exists. These carriers of the crooked gene, having been surgically straightened, will bring more money at the sales and will be bred more readily (and at higher levels) than they would have been in the past. The result: a very crooked breed, in need of constant surgical correction.

 What about the fact that 2YOs in training are selling for 5 million dollars based on their ability to breeze AN EIGHTH OF A MILE in a fast time? This is where I would look for abuses of performance enhancing drugs because never again in a racehorse\'s career will he/ she be able to earn such a large \"purse\" for such a short dash.

So I am on the record as saying it now--as long as pinhooking and stallion syndication continue to offer profits out of proportion to any reality, look for the abuses of performance enhancing drugs and treatments in the breeding shed and at the 2YO in training sales. This is where we can see the real potential for damage to the breed.

When the White Mercedes turns up at Calder or Ocala in February, the real problems may be starting.



Post Edited (03-28-05 04:29)

[davidrex]

    they cloned a sheep...baaa
    they cloned a cow.....moo
    now lets see...
    what barnyard animal would really    
    be an instant success[only the french would be concerned about cosumption problems]
    names for the product or procecdure like:

    white mercedes[color optional]
    frisky frankel[gendre optional]
    pletcher perfomance[goes both short & long]
   
    i used to think artificial insemination was way overdue for the breed but things are moving so swiftly in this industry they just might skip that step altogether         PARTY pokerON

[HP]

JohnT,

You can still handicap and win.  HP

I played Texcess in the race, but used Flower Alley second most in some widely spread exactas. Personally, I thought it was fairly obvious that Flower Alley was highly likely to move forward. He had been working sensationally coming into the race and lightly races Pletcher horses have a history of improving as they move up the ranks. I came very close to betting 2 horses to win in this race and Flower Alley would have been the second horse.

[jbelfior]

Ch--

I boxed 3 horses (which I rarely do). Thought the race was tough, but eliminated enough of the entries to come down to FLOWER ALLEY, MAGNA GRADUATE, and the #9 (Jennifer Pedersen\'s horse). I think the California 3yo crop is overrated which is why I eliminated SPANISH CHESTNUT and TEXEXCESS.  

No matter. I get split by the first horse who I happened to eliminate, trained by that thorn in my side Kenny McPeek ( by the way, did they find PRINCE ARCH yet?).


Good Luck,
Joe B.

I boxed Flower Alley, Texcess, and Mr. Sword. I actually briefly considered betting all 3 to win. Then I considered Texcess and Flower Alley to win. That\'s how much I disliked Spanish Chestnut and Andromeda\'s Hero at those prices.

I also haven\'t been especially high on the CA 3YOs (until Consolidator\'s recent race), but these weren\'t anywhere near the top horses. So I gave Texcess a huge shot. I thought he was better than Spanish Chestnut in the San Rafael and thought his other races were also better than they looked. There was plenty of speed to keep SC honest (and hirt themselves) and I thought Tex could get a good trip just off the pace. He was so horrible though, I don\'t think the result proved anything other than I am on a bad run. :-)  

I don\'t know why anyone liked the Zito horse in there. I thought he was the worst horse in the race.



Post Edited (03-28-05 10:23)

[HP]

Just a few thoughts...

I think you have to look for a horse who\'s building towards his good races as opposed to a horse that may have already showed you his best (like Texcess has shown you with those four 5-ish races in a row -- where he\'s been stuck for five months).  This is the logic for using Zito\'s horse.  He had upside.  

I think all this \"California crop\" and \"plenty of speed\" stuff is a waste of time.  Just to address this \"plenty of speed\" thing, for example -- aren\'t these horses really too young to have \"running styles\" to speak of?  How can you really say with authority that there is \"plenty of speed?\"  The trainers are still figuring things out.  I\'ll go a step further and say you have NO IDEA who\'s going to go early, who\'s going to hold back and try to rate, etc., and using pace to handicap a race like this is a complete and total waste of time.  By Derby time, you MAY be on slightly firmer ground.  Maybe.  

Also, when someone says \"the race was better than it looked,\" I rarely know what that means.  If Jerry thinks the race was better than it looked he puts in the \"buried\" comment.  Otherwise a 5 is a 5 is a 5.  

I read so much stuff on this board that has NOTHING to do with TG handicapping.  Every time I get bogged down in all this extraneous stuff (and I do, periodically) I lose.  Look at the figures and play the race.  Stop reading everything else and if you\'re doing badly stop buying the Racing Form for awhile and just use TG.  Just a suggestion....  

HP