GP 1/29: R10 (SM Classic)

[Saratoga]

$140.00 winner

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I was impressed with whoever called Zakocity. he almost did it. (Fact is it was Rich, he had two nice bomb plays in second) The winner was a cosmic event.

I took a bath on that one. Every horse I played to run was out except Classic Endeavor.



Post Edited (01-29-05 17:55)

[Michael D.]

my horse was 10 lengths back rounding the first turn?  ...... mall, nice call on marwood. i guess the winner did what she did last year: save ground, run in the \"5\" range, and take it all. hope you managed to cash ......

$92,000 super in the feature.

[Michael D.]

rich,
i hope you made some money on those two picks!!! with any luck whatsoever you would have been walking out with an armed guard.

Midas Eyes was a pretty bad 2-1 shot off more than a 2 month layoff, from the outside, at the route. But as hard as I tried to find a bet in there, there was no one I could come up with that made me confident. I passed the race. I am thankful for that because there isn\'t a snowball\'s chance in hell I would have cashed a ticket.  If someone put a gun to my head I probably would have taken Second of June.



Post Edited (01-31-05 11:27)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I made SOJ a minor play. I was on almost every dirt race, but didn\'t sniff on the last one. Zakocity had recency. Had I made him the 2 lengths faster Tgraph did i would have played him and still lost.

You had to figure trouble for Midas with that post and projected pace positioning. I thought Midas would hook up lots of exotic money (he did) and marked this race for a play. Problem was the result with him out...lol

The odds on Tujours caught my eye...i just didnt see enough on 1st off layoffs or potential speed to seriously factor him. Never remotely projected a wire job either.

[Michael D.]

i feel a bit stupid not looking closer at zak. it was a good race to bet, as the four favs all had issues, and i did not like midas eyes at 2-1 from that post. not that it was a good bet anyway, but santos got checked hard nearing the first turn, and cozy wound up way back in tenth before they got around the first turn. the horse won the cal classic running right on a :46.1 pace?? (santos was also on marwood). well, live and learn. betting isolated tops requires generous odds, which i did not get.

[TGJB]

Michael-- definitely agree about getting odds on horses with isolated tops.

Interesting note, though it\'s way too early to know what it means--

They announced testing at SA and GP recently, although it\'s hard to keep track of which races they are testing. Anyway, between Pletcher, Dutrow, Frankel, O\' Neill, Lake, and Mullins, they started 16 horses in the Millions. One win (Frankel bomb), one second, two thirds.

Mitchell won one, but he was the one who continued to win in California after they started testing.

I wonder if they froze the samples from the Paumonok at Aqu yesterday...

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Good news on the sample freezing. Not sure how easy it is to collect urine as opposed to blood.

The new testing also entered my mind TGJB. After the Hals Hope I prematurely ruled out Frankel as a Shaker. Will have to watch closely now, though I\'d have taken a position against Midas in the circumstances regardless.

[Michael D.]

TGJB,
why did you guys go with stockholder? he had the same degree of isolated top as cozy (albeit a faster one). trainer stats said another \"2\" or worse was coming (not knocking the handicapping, mine was worse, just curious). BTW, a couple of tough beats at huge odds in your analysis. betting GP with these big fields is very tough.

[TGJB]

I didn\'t do the analysis, but I ended up making a 4 horse box (running 2-3), and betting both Zackocity (small) and Stockholder (less small) to win. My thinking on SH was that if he ran his top he would probably win (not necessarily true of CG), and that second off a layoff, with a solid pattern at three, and Mott spotting him ambitiously (this was an obvious spot for CG, not for SH), there was a decent chance he would run his best. Also, in CG\'s case the secondary tops were further away from his top, and he did a whole lot more developing to get there, making it more likely the effort had hurt.

Problem with SH, of course, is that long layoff. The right time to play horses with soundness issues is usually when they are fresh (Da Hoss, etc.), but it didn\'t work this time.

[Michael D.]

thanks

[richiebee]

Re Paumonok:
 
  Why are people so surprised that a
horse would move up -- dramatically--
going from Frank Generazio to Scott
Lake?

  Beyond that, bad handicappers (me)tried to
imagine a speed duel where there
was none. Simply, D6 was fastest in
the first 200 yards and that was
all it took Saturday.

  I would say some Don 6 fans were
expecting 5.40, got 8.40.

  Where can I get the results for
Volleypalooza, Frank Stronach\'s
newest way of infusing racing with
scantily clad women? Why doesn\'t
he just hire the Beulah twins?
(if he does due diligence, he will
find that they are not really twins
and they are probably not blonde).



Post Edited (01-30-05 23:21)

[RICH]

Michael


Not a dime.I had a 100 to bet I bet 40 win on both, had the rest in pk3\'s with the winner of the 8th, and a few dd\'s. Never considered the winners that beat me. I don\'t think I could have played any different for me. Sure I could play place or backwheel all in the ex, but that\'s not me.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Still excellent handicapping Rich. I will bet to place I need to have a \"vulnerable\" favorite, a horse with a big chance and 9-1 in the \"to win\" pool. Obviously, you cut your return down if the horse wins and all the money isn\'t on him, but on high odds horses vanity in my ability has stung me. I wish I had perfecta boxes for all the stone cold perfectas I lost in my life where the finishing order flipped. The Belmont last year for example. My theory is you have to respect the higher odds horse when you factor him. You have to give yourself a chance to cash if he is not quite up to them or is luckier than you thought he would be. Now if I could only remember that on \'superhorses\'...lol

Marwood paid 15 bucks to place. Zakocity almost 11-1 is what i recall.